政大機構典藏-National Chengchi University Institutional Repository(NCCUR):Item 140.119/35199

政大機構典藏-National Chengchi University Institutional Repository(NCCUR):Item 140.119/35199

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題名:	CPFR流程下之銷售預測方法~混合預測模型 A Hybrid Modeling Approach for Sales Forecasting in CPFR Process
作者:	黃蘭禎 Huang,Lan Chen
貢獻者:	林我聰 Lin,Woo-Tsong 黃蘭禎 Huang,Lan Chen
關鍵詞:	協同規劃、預測與補貨銷售預測混合預測模型基因演算法 Collaborative Planning, Forecasting and Replenishment CPFR Sales forecasts Hybrid forecasting model Genetic Algorithm
日期:	2003
上傳時間:	2009-09-18 14:25:25 (UTC+8)
摘要:	協同規劃、預測與補貨(Collaborative Planning, Forecasting and Replenishment,CPFR)，在歐美經過一些企業的採用後已經有顯著的成效，目前國內已經有一些企業相繼採用或即將採用CPFR，期望能因此降低供應鏈作業成本及提升供應鏈作業績效，以提升企業競爭力。在CPFR流程與供應鏈協同作業環境下，一個供需雙方協同，且績效良好的的銷售預測具有關鍵的重要性，是管理決策與協同合作時的的重要依據；但是多數的企業並沒有一個結構化、系統化的預測流程及方法，而是各部門透過簡單時間序列方法、天真預測法或人為經驗法則估算需求，進行多點且不同方法之預測，這樣的銷售預測較無穩定的品質，亦較難提供管理者合理的數據解釋。本研究結合時間序列、多元回歸模型與基因演算法發展出一個CPFR流程下之三階段混合預測方法，以買賣方直接之銷售資料、銷售計畫等資訊進行以「週」為單位之個別商品銷售預測。同時本研究中，亦以國內某製造業公司與其顧客（一國際大型零售連鎖店通路商）之產品銷售資料進行方法的驗證；實驗顯示，本研究所提出之預測方法之預測結果較Jeong等人(2002)所提結合多元回歸模型與基因演算法之二階段預測系統之預測結果佳；亦較傳統使用普通最小平方法求解之一般統計回歸方法預測結果佳。 It has been verified in pilot projects by many European and American Corporations that Collaborative Planning, Forecasting and Replenishment (CPFR) can improve supply chain performance. Enterprises nowadays in Taiwan are implementing or going to implement CPFR, with hopes to reduce their supply chain operation cost, enhance logistic performance and increase their competition capability consequently. Under CPFR process and supply chain collaboration environment, a supply and demand both sides promised identical sales forecast with well forecasting performance for order decision making and cooperation is very important. Due to the dynamic complexities of both internal and external co-operate environment, many firms resort to qualitative, navie forecasting or other simple quantitative forecasting techniques and have many forecasts in their organization. However, these forecasting techniques lack the structure and extrapolation capability of quantitative forecasting models or without stable performance, while multi-forecasts providing different views of demand. Forecasting inaccuracies exist and typically lead to dramatic disturbances in sales order and production planning. This paper presents a hybrid forecasting model for sales forecasting requirements in CPFR. A three stage model is proposed that integrate the time series model, regression model and use genetic algorithm to determine its coefficients efficiently. Direct sales information and related planned events in both collaborated sides is used for individual product’s “week” sales forecasting. To verify this model, we experiment on two different products and produce forecasts with datum from one manufacturer in Taiwan and its international retailer. The results shows that the hybrid sales forecasting model has better forecasting performance than not only the causal-genetic forecasting model proposed by Jeong et al. (2002), but also ordinary regression model with no genetic training process.
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Jr. ,”Game Plan for A Successful Collaboration Forecasting process”, the Journal of Business Forecasting, Spring pp.2-6, 2001 29.Ozturkmen, Z. A. ,“Forecasting in the Rapid Changing Telecommunications Industry: AT&T’s Experience,” The journal of business forecasting,Vol.19,No.3, pp.3-4, 2000 30.Rice, G. and Mahmoud, E. , "Political Risk Forecasting by Canadian Firms," International Journal of Forecasting, Vol.6, No.1, pp.89-120, 1990 31.Safavi, A. ,”Choosing The Right Forecasting Software and System,” The journal of business forecasting, Vol.21,No.3, pp.6-12,14, 2000 32.Shankar, V. and Krishnamurthi, L. ,“Relating Price Sensitivity to Retail Promotional Variables and Pricing Policy: An Empirical Analysis,” Journal of Retailing, Vol.72,No.3, pp.249-271,1996 33.Seifert, D. ,“Collaborative Planning, Forecasting and Replenishment,” Preprint Edition, pp.39-52, 2002 34.Stank, T. P. and Keller, S. 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描述:	碩士國立政治大學資訊管理研究所 91356005 92
資料來源:	http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0091356005
資料類型:	thesis
顯示於類別:	[資訊管理學系] 學位論文

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