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    政大機構典藏 > 商學院 > 企業管理學系 > 學位論文 >  Item 140.119/35061
    Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: https://nccur.lib.nccu.edu.tw/handle/140.119/35061


    Title: 外匯選擇權的定價-馬可夫鏈蒙地卡羅法(MCMC)之績效探討
    Authors: 任紀為
    Contributors: 杜化宇
    任紀為
    Keywords: 馬可夫鍵蒙地卡羅
    狀態轉換波動
    吉普斯抽樣
    笑狀波幅
    Markov-chain Monte Carlo
    Regime-switching volatility
    Gibbs sampling
    Volatility smile
    Date: 2004
    Issue Date: 2009-09-18 13:41:54 (UTC+8)
    Abstract: 在真實世界中,我們可以觀察到許多財務或經濟變數(股價、匯率、利率等)有時波動幅度非常微小,呈現相對穩定的狀態(Regime);有時會由於政治因素或經濟環境的變動,突然一段期間呈現瘋狂震盪的狀態。針對這種現象,已有學者提出狀態轉換波動度模型(Regime Switching Volatility Model,簡稱RSV)來捕捉此一現象。

    本篇論文選擇每年交易金額非常龐大的外匯選擇權市場,以RSV模型為基礎,採用馬可夫鏈蒙地卡羅法 ( Markov Chain Monte Carlo,簡稱MCMC ) 中的吉普斯抽樣(Gibbs Sampling)法來估計RSV模型的參數,依此預測外匯選擇權在RSV模型下的價格。我們再將此價格與Black and Scholes(BS)法及實際市場交易的價格資料作比較,最後並提出笑狀波幅與隱含波動度平面的結果。結果顯示經由RSV模型與MCMC演算法所計算出來的選擇權價格確實優於傳統的BS方法,且能有效解釋波動率期間結構 (Volatility Term Structure) 與笑狀波幅 (Volatility Smile) 的現象,確實反應且捕捉到了市場上選擇權價格所應具備的特色。
    Reference: 一、中文部分(依作者姓名筆畫排列)
    杜化宇,期貨與選擇概論. John C. Hull 原著,民國八十九年,雙葉書廊。
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    陳松男,金融工程學.,民國九十一年,華泰書局出版。
    黃大展, ”隨機波動下的二元樹狀模型之探討” ,國立政治大學財務管理研究所碩士論文,民國九十年六月。
    謝盈弘, ”馬可夫鏈蒙地卡羅法在外匯選擇權定價的應用” ,國立政治大學統計學研究所碩士論文,民國九十一年六月。
    二、英文部分(依作者姓氏字母排列)
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    Description: 碩士
    國立政治大學
    企業管理研究所
    92355055
    93
    Source URI: http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0923550551
    Data Type: thesis
    Appears in Collections:[企業管理學系] 學位論文

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