政大機構典藏-National Chengchi University Institutional Repository(NCCUR):Item 140.119/34794

政大機構典藏-National Chengchi University Institutional Repository(NCCUR):Item 140.119/34794

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政大機構典藏 > 社會科學學院 > 行政管理碩士學程(MEPA) > 學位論文 > Item 140.119/34794

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题名:	區域經濟整合對貿易流量影響之研究---引力模型之驗證 The Effects of Regional Economic Integration on Trade Flows: The Empirical Evidence in Taiwan under Gravity Model Analysis
作者:	陳明潔 Chen,Ming-Chieh
贡献者:	翁永和朱美麗黃志典陳明潔 Chen,Ming-Chieh
关键词:	引力模型區域經濟整合自由貿易協定貿易創造貿易轉向北美自由貿易區歐盟東協自由貿易區 Gravity model Regional Economic Integration Free Trade Agreement Trade Creation Trade Diversion NAFTA EU AFTA
日期:	2004
上传时间:	2009-09-19 15:12:34 (UTC+8)
摘要:	多邊主義下帶動之「全球化」及區域主義下所帶動之「區域化」皆已成為現階段國際經貿發展的兩股重要潮流，透過洽簽自由貿易協定所達到之區域經濟整合，在區域內可消除絕大部份之關稅及非關稅貿易障礙，預計將有助於增進會員國間之貿易量，形成貿易創造效果，而或對於非會員國造成貿易轉向效果。故其將影響國際貿易的流向，國際資源的重分配，進而改變國際分工型態。為瞭解區域經濟整合對於貿易流量的影響，本文首先將就區域經濟整合之定義與法源、區域經濟整合發展與現況、及台灣與各主要區域經濟整合之貿易概況進行概述。鑒於引力模型可有效的分析雙邊的貿易流量，本文針對該模型之相關文獻及實證歸納與整理，並利用引力模型，選擇全球六個重要區域經濟組織包括北美自由貿易區、歐盟、東協自由貿易區、南方共同市場、安地略集團及紐澳緊密關係協定等區域共計37個國家，以設定虛擬變數之方式實證1990年至2003年長達13年間各區域經濟整合的過程中，其對於區內會員國及對非屬會員國進、出口貿易流量之影響，特別是整合過程中對台灣是否產生貿易轉向之現象進行實證研究，並分析影響貿易流量之因素。本實證研究發現影響二國間貿易流量的因素分別為出、進口國之國民生產毛額及人均國民生產毛額，以及距離。區域經濟整合具有明顯的貿易創造效果，而貿易轉向效果則隨經濟整合的緊密程度、區域內產業分工型態及與區域外國家出、進口結構及產業間相互競合程度不一而產生不同的影響。在上述六個區域經濟整合中，北美自由貿易區及南方共同市場對台灣產生貿易轉向的現象。本研究亦針對上述之結果與區域經濟整合實際進展現況進行交互分析。最後，本研究將就政策面及後續研究的方向提出建議，俾供參考。 Globalization and regionalization have been the two main trends in international economic development in recent years. Already, many countries have signed Free Trade Agreements to achieve the goal of regional economic integration. This integration allows members of the region to virtually eliminate all tariff and non-tariff trade barriers and, as a result, increase trade volume between member countries. This phenomenon is called trade creation. On the other hand, trade volume between members of the region and non-member may decrease, a phenomenon called trade diversion. All of this will affect international trade flows, the allocation of international resources and change the pattern of the international industrial division. In order to learn how regional economic integration influences trade flows, this paper deals first with the definition and regulation under the GATT of regional trade agreements, the present situation and the development of regional economic integration. We also examine the current state of import and export trade between Taiwan and the main regional economies in the world. This paper reviews the relevant literature on the gravity model, a model that can effectively analyze trade flows between two countries, then proceeds to use this model with NAFTA, EU, AFTA, MERCOSUR, ANDEAN Community, and CER (Closer Economic Relationship between the Australia and New Zealand) as regional dummies. This allows us to test alterations in trade flows between members and other members as well as between members and non-members (especially Taiwan) in these six regional trade blocs for the 13 years between 1990 and 2003. This model also analyzes the main factors affecting trade flows. We find first that the main factors influencing trade flows between two countries are the GDP and per capita GDP of the importer and exporter as well as distance. Secondly, while regional economic integration clearly brings with it trade creation, the degree of trade diversion is affected by such factors as the degree of regional economic integration, the pattern of industrial division in the region, the structure of imports from and exports to non-member countries and the level of competition and cooperation in various sectors. The empirical evidence shows that NAFTA and Mercosur have resulted in trade diversion away from Taiwan. Based on our findings, we offer policy suggestions and suggestions for further research.
參考文獻:	谷克鑒 (2001)，”國際經濟學對引力模型的開發與應用”，世界經濟，2001年第2期，14-25，中國社會科學院。李紀珠、林靖 (2001)，”從歐盟整合經驗看歐盟及大中華經濟體雙邊貿易之特徵”，國政研究報告，財團法人國家政策研究基金會。陳雯 (2002)，”試析東盟自由貿易區建設對東盟區內貿易的影響”，世界經濟，2002第12期，40-46，中國社會科學院。黃登興、徐茂炫 (1997)，”殖民關係與貿易形態在台灣日據時期的驗證”，經濟論文叢刊，25:3，369-399。郭錦婷 (1999)，”「引力模式」應用在雙邊貿易之分析-以亞太國家為例”，國立政治大學國際貿易學系碩士論文。盛斌、廖明中 (2004)，”中國的貿易流量與出口潛力：引力模型的研究”，世界經濟，2004年第2期，3-12，中國社會科學院。劉碧珍、陳添枝、翁永和 (2002)，國際貿易理論與政策，台北市：雙葉書廊。 Aldworth, Paul. (2003), Lloyd’s martitime atlas of world parts and shipping places, United Kingdom: Informa publishing group. Anderson, J. E. (1979), “The Theoretical Foundation for the Gravity Equation,” America Economic Review, Vol. 69, No.1. Bergstrand, J.H. (1985), “The Gravity Equatiion in International Trade: Some Microeconomic Foundations and Empircal Evidence,” Review of Economics and Statistics, Vol. 67, pp. 474-481. Caney, R. W., and Reynold, J. E. (1995), Reed’s marine distancetables, United Kingdom: Thomas reed publications. Cheng, I-Hui and Wall, Howard J. (2002), “Controling for Heterogeneity in Gravity Models of Trade and Integration,” Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, Working Paper 99-101. Clausing, Kimberly. (1995), “The Canada-United States Free Trade Agreement: Stepping Stone or Stumbling Block?” Photocopy. Cambridge, MA: Harvard University (November). Deardorff, Alan V. (1984a), “Testing Trade Theories and Predicting Trade Flows,” in: R. Jones and P. Kenen, eds., Handbook of International Economics, Vol. 1, Amsterdam: Elsevier, pp. 467-517. Deardorff, Alan V. (1998b), “Determinants of Bilateral Trade: Does Gravity Work in a Neoclassical World?” in: Jeffrey A. Frankel. ed., The Regionalization of the World Economy, Chicago: University of Chicago Press. Eichengreen, Barry and Irwin, Douglas A. (1998), “The Role of History in Bilateral Trade Flows,” in: Jeffrey A. Frankel. ed., The Regionalization of the World Economy, Chicago: University of Chicago Press. Frankel, Jeffrey A. (1997), Regional Trading Blocs in the World Economic System, Washington, DC: Institute for International Economics. Frankel, Jeffrey A., Stein, Ernesto, and Wei, Shang-Jin. (1998), “Continental Trading Blocs: Are They Natural or Supernatural?” in: Jeffrey A. Frankel. ed., The Regionalization of the World Economy, Chicago: University of Chicago Press. Frankel, Jeffrey A. and Wei, Shang-Jin. (1998), “Regionalization of World Trade and Currencies: Economics and Politics,” in: Jeffrey A. Frankel. ed., The Regionalization of the World Economy, Chicago: University of Chicago Press. Gundlach, Erich, Hiemenz, Ulrich, Langhammer, Rolf, and Nunnenkamp, Peter. (1993), “Regional Integration in Eruope and Its Impact on Developing Countries,” In: Koichi Ohno ed., Regional Integration and Its Impact on Developing Countries, Tokyo: institute of Developing Economies. Hufbauer, C., Gary, and Schott, Jeffrey J. (1993), “Regionalism in North America,” in: Koichi Ohno. ed., Regional Inegration and Its Impact on Developing Countries, Tokyo: Institute of Developing Economies. Huang, Deng-Shing. (2002) “Trading Blocs under Globalization: Empircal Evidence from Gravity Model,” Institute of Economics, Academia Sinica under the Program of North-East Asia Studies. Kreinin, Mordechai. (1972a), “Effects of the EEC on Imports of Manufactures,” Economic Journal, Vol. 82, No. 327, pp. 897-920. Kreinin, Mordechai. (1981b), “Static Effect of EC Enlargement on Trade in Manufactures,” Kyklos, Vol. 34, No. 1, pp. 60-71. Linnemann, Hans. (1966), An Econometric Study of International Trade Flows, Amsterdam: North-Holland. Matyas, Laszlo. (1997), “Proper Econometric Specification of the Gravity Model,” The World Economy, Vol. 20, pp. 363-69. Mccallum, John. (1995), “National Borders Matter: Canada-U.S. Regional Trade Patterns,” The American Economic Review, Vol. 85, No.3, pp. 615-622. Poyhonen, P. (1963), “A Tentative Model for the Flows of Trade between Countries,” Welwirtschatftliches Archiv, No. 90, pp. 93-99. Stone, S. F. and Jeon B.N. (1999a), “Gravity-Model Specification for Foreign Direct Investment: A case of the Asia –Pacific Economices,” Journal of Business and Economic Studies, Vol. 5, No. 1, pp. 33-41. Stone S. F. & Jeon B. N. (2000b), “Foreign Direct Investment and Trade in the Asia-Pacific Region: Complementary, Distance and Regional Economic Integration,” Journal of Economic Integration, Vol.15, No.3, pp. 460-485. Tinbergen, Jan. (1962), Shaping the World Economy: Suggestions for an International Economic Policy, New York: The Twentieth Century Fund. Viner, Jacob. (1950), The Customs Union Issue, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. Wall, Howard J. (2002), “Has Japan Been Left Out in the Cold by Regional Integration,” The Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, pp. 25-35.
描述:	碩士國立政治大學行政管理碩士學程 90921026 93
資料來源:	http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0090921026
数据类型:	thesis
显示于类别:	[行政管理碩士學程(MEPA)] 學位論文

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