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    题名: 台灣股票市場對勞動參與之影響
    The Effect of Stock Market on Labor Force Participation in Taiwan
    作者: 童偉碩
    Tong,Wei-Shuo
    贡献者: 黃智聰
    童偉碩
    Tong,Wei-Shuo
    关键词: 勞動參與率
    股票市場
    一般生育率
    台灣
    日期: 2005
    上传时间: 2009-09-18 10:57:55 (UTC+8)
    摘要: 由相關數據可知，台灣民眾涉入股市甚深，故股市的榮枯將直接影響到財富高低，也直接的影響消費與勞動參與的變化。當股市大幅上漲，理論上會出現三種效果。第一種為財富效果，當股市上漲，投資股票的勞動者之財富大幅增加，將會產生財富效果，進而使勞動者退出勞動市場不再工作，導致勞動參與率之下降。第二種效果則為正向之替代效果，當股市上漲，將會使大眾預期未來工資上漲，而使得未來休閒之機會成本上升，而決定重新回到勞動市場中工作，導致勞動參與率上升。第三種效果則為負向之替代效果，因股市上漲，部分民眾會認為投資股市將可在短期內獲取高額報酬，而退出勞動市場以專心買賣股票，此舉將導致勞動參與率之下降。
    綜合上述，股票市場之榮枯將反映在總體勞動參與的變化上。故本文研究目的即為探究台灣股票市場的榮枯對勞動參與之影響為何。本研究使用1978年1月至2004年12月之時間序列資料，並以加權股價指數、勞動參與率、經濟成長率與一般生育率為內生變數，以Pesaran and Shin（1998）與 Pesaran et al.（2001）所提出來自我迴歸分配落後加共整合模型（Autoregressive Distributed Lag approach to Cointegration, ARDL + cointegration），來檢驗上述的關係。
    主要的發現分為長期與短期兩部分。先就長期而言，當股票市場上漲時，不論對男性或女性的影響皆為正向關係，且影響的程度隨年齡增加而上升。再就短期而言，當股票呈現多頭格局時，可發現股票上漲對男性勞動參與率的影響為正，但其效果非常小，幾乎為零。但股票上漲對女性勞動參與率的影響則是負向關係。除此之外，股票市場榮枯對男性與女性勞動參與之影響效果隨年齡上升而增加，亦即對越接近退休年齡層的勞動力影響越大。最後，為了降低實證模型發生錯誤的機會，並使研究過程更為嚴謹，於是對本文模型和估計結果使用更多的方法加以檢定。
    The paper tries to investigate the relationship between stock market and labor force participation in Taiwan. This study adopts official time series data of monthly labor force participation rate, weighted stock index, general fertility rate, real GDP growth rate from 1978 to 2004, and the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) approach to cointegration proposed by Pesaran and Shin (1998) and Pesaran et al. (2001). The main finding of this study is that stock market has a significantly positive effect on Taiwan’s labor force participation of both male and female in the long run. In the short run, stock market has a slightly positive effect on labor force participation of male, but negative effect on labor force participation of female. The result is reasonable but not similar with the finding in America provided by Chen and French (2000). In addition, the effect of the stock market on labor force participation increases by age. Finally, in order to reduce the mistakes occurred in positive models and enable the study more rigorous, then uses more methods to test the models and the result.
    參考文獻: 一、中文文獻
    中華民國內政部統計處編，《中華民國臺閩地區人口統計》，（1978~2005），（台北），中華民國內政部。
    中華民國行政院主計處編，《中華民國人力資源統計月報》，（1987~2005），（台北），中華民國行政院主計處。
    中華民國行政院主計處編，《中華民國統計月報》，（1978~2005），（台北），中華民國行政院主計處。
    中華民國行政院主計處編《中華民國勞工統計月報》，（1978~1987），（台北），中華民國行政院主計處。
    中華民國行政院主計處網站，http://www.dgbas.gov.tw/。
    台灣證券交易所網站，http://www.tse.com.tw/。
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    二、英文文獻
    Blackley, Paul R. (1992), “The 1987 Stock Market Crash and New York City Employment：An Intervention-Multiplier Analysis,” Journal of Regional Science, 32(3), 367-374.
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    Campolieti Michele (2001), “The Canada / Quebec Pension Plan Disability Program and Labor Force Participation of Older Men,” Economics Letters, 70(3), 421-426.
    Cheng, Benjamin S. (1999), “Cointegration and Causality between Fertility and Female Labor Participation in Taiwan : A Multivariate Approach,” Atlantic Economic Journal, 27(4), 422-434.
    Cheng, Ing-Haw and Eric French (2000), “The Effect of the Run-up in the Stock Market on Labor Supply,” Economic Perspectives: Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, 24(4), 48-65.
    Clark, Kim B. and Lawrence H. Summers (1982), “Labor Force Participation: Timing and Persistence,” NBER Working Papers, No. 977
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    Fosu, Augustin K. (1995), “Labor Force Participation of Black and White Married Women: Evidence from Urban Labor,” Review of Black Political Economy, 24(1), 45-64.
    French, Eric (2000), “The Effects of Health, Wealth, and Wages on Labor Supply and Retirement Behavior,” Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, working paper, No. 00-02.
    Gregory, R. G., P. McMahon, and B. Whittingham (1985), “Women in the Australia Labor Force: Trends, Causes, and Consequences,” Journal of Labor Economics, 3(1) Part 2, S293-S309.
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    描述: 碩士
    國立政治大學
    財政研究所
    93255019
    94
    資料來源: http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0093255019
    数据类型: thesis
    显示于类别:[財政學系] 學位論文

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