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    題名: 台海兩岸產業間互動關係之研究
    作者: 顏伊屏
    貢獻者: 張勝文
    顏伊屏
    關鍵詞: 中國大陸
    台灣
    產業互動
    日期: 2005
    上傳時間: 2009-09-18 10:57:48 (UTC+8)
    摘要: 本文援引Chang and Coulson（2001）之實證模型設定，藉由向量自我迴歸模型，將全球景氣、全球產業、大陸與台灣景氣之特性排除後，獨立出兩岸產業衝擊效果，分析台灣與大陸兩岸產業間之互動關係。本研究所使用之資料為製造業與非製造業兩種產業之就業人數季資料，涵蓋範圍為1994年第一季至2005年第三季。實證研究發現，台灣與大陸產業間互動情形大致呈現大陸產業影響台灣產業，而台灣產業對於大陸產業之影響 力則較弱。其中，大陸製造業因供給面衝擊，將受台灣製造業所替代；大陸非製造業則因需求面衝擊，而與台灣非製造業呈現互補現象。台灣製造業短期下因需求面衝擊，將被大陸製造業所替代，然而長期卻能轉型與大陸製造業並存發展；台灣非製造業則因規模限制，將受大陸非製造業替代。最後，大陸產業對於台灣經濟之反應為負向，而台灣產業受到大陸整體衝擊時，卻因需求外溢效果呈現正向關係，然而長期下，大陸之磁吸作用將不利於台灣非製造業發展。
    This paper applies the model established by Chang and Coulson (2001) to investigate the interaction of industries across the Taiwan strait. This paper constructs a vector autoregression model in an attempt to isolate the shocks of the world, industry, China and Taiwan which may have an influence on industries between Taiwan and China. Data are quarterly employment series for manufacturing sector and non-manufacturing sector from 1994 Q1 to 2005 Q3. The results of this study are that China industries has a lager influence on Taiwan industries. Because of the supply shock, Taiwan manufacturing sector has a negative impact on China manufacturing sector. In contrast to the manufacturing case, there is a complementary relationship between non-manufacturing sector due to the demand shift effect. Taiwan manufacturing sector is substituted by China manufacturing sector in the short run, but there is a positive effect in the long run owing to the structural change in Taiwan. Without the advantage in economics of scale, Taiwan manufacturing industry is also substituted by China non-manufacturing sector. Finally, business cycle in Taiwan has a negative influence on China industries, and a shock in China has a positive impact on Taiwan industries from the demand spillover effect. However, the impact will be harmful for the development of Taiwan non-manufacturing sector in the long run.
    參考文獻: 一、中文文獻
    王鵬（2005），「海峽兩岸產業合作的互補關系及發展策略」，《海峽科技與產業》（北京），3，頁23-26。
    朱善利、張一弛 (1998)，「兩岸三地產業結構演變趨勢及其互補性研究」，《臺研兩岸前瞻探索》，9，頁117-131。
    任克敏（1996），「中國大陸經濟改革與兩岸經濟關係之發展」，國立政治大學，中山人文社會科學研究所博士論文，台北市。
    李非（2000），「論海峽兩岸經濟的競爭與互補」，《台灣研究集刊》（福建），4，頁30-39。
    林祖嘉（2001），「加入WTO後兩岸經貿互動趨勢之探討」，《國家政策論壇》，1（10），頁56-61。
    高長（2001），「兩岸加入WTO後產業可能的互動與競爭力變化」，《經濟情勢暨評論》，7（3），頁1-20。
    蕭峰雄、林美萱（2003），「兩岸經濟和產業發展之回顧」，《國家政策論壇》，92（2），頁201-219。
    二、英文文獻
    Brown, H. J. (1969), “Shift-Share Projections of Regional Growth,” Journal of Regional Science, 9, 1-18.
    Chang, S. W. and E. Coulson (2001), “Sources of Sectoral Employment Fluctuations in Central Cities and Suburbs: Evidence from Four Eastern U.S. Cities,” Journal of Urban Economics, 49, 199-218.
    Coulson, E. (1993), “The Sources of Sectoral Fluctuations in Metropolitan Areas,” Journal of Urban Economics, 33, 76-94.
    Coulson, E. and Rushen, S. (1995), “Sources of Fluctuations in the Boston Economy,” Journal of Urban Economics, 38, 74-93.
    Coulson, E. (1999), “Sectoral Sources of Metropolitan Growth,” Regional Science and Urban Economics, 29, 723-743.
    Doan, T. (1991), User’s Manual: RATS version 3.10, VAR Econometrics, Inc., Evanston, IL.
    Dunne, T., M. J. Roberts, and L. Samuelson (1989), “Plant Turnover and Gross Employment Flows in the U.S. Manufacturing Sector,” Journal of Labor Economics, 7, 48-71.
    Granger, C. W. J. (1969), “Investigating Causal Relations by Econometrics Models and Spectral Methods,” Econometrica, 37, 424-438.
    Greene, W. H. (2003), Econometric Analysis, Upper Saddle River, New Jersey: Prentice Hall.
    Henderson, J. V. (1991), Urban Development: Theory, Fact, and Illusion, New York: Oxford University Press.
    Johansen, S. (1988), “Statistical Analysis of Cointegration Vectors,” Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 12, 231-254.
    Johansen, S. and K. Juselius (1990), “Maximum Likelihood Estimation and Inference on Cointrgration – with Application to the Demand for Money,” Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, 52, 169-210.
    Richardson, H. W. (1985), “Input-Output and Economic Base Multipliers: Looking Backward and Forward.” Journal of Regional Science, 25, 607-622.
    Sims, C. (1980), “Macroeconomic and Reality,” Econometrica, 48, 1-49.
    Wang, Z. and G. E. Schuh (2002), “Economic Integration among Taiwan, Hong Kong and China: A Computable General Equilibrium Analysis,” Pacific Economic Review, 5, 229-262.
    Wang, Z. (2003), “WTO Accession, the “Greater China” Free-trade Area, and Economic Integration across the Taiwan Strait,” China Economic Review, 14, 316-349.
    Zhang, Z., X. Xu, and W. B. Zhang (2003), “The Dynamics of Political and Economic Interactions between Mainland China and Taiwan,” Papers In Regional Science, 82, 373-388.
    描述: 碩士
    國立政治大學
    財政研究所
    93255018
    94
    資料來源: http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0093255018
    資料類型: thesis
    顯示於類別:[財政學系] 學位論文

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