政大機構典藏-National Chengchi University Institutional Repository(NCCUR):Item 140.119/34413

政大典藏 > College of Social Science > Graduate Institute of Development Studies > Theses > Item 140.119/34413

Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: https://nccur.lib.nccu.edu.tw/handle/140.119/34413

Title:	經濟投票與政黨輪替—以台灣縣市長選舉為例
Authors:	程小綾 Cheng,Hsiao-Ling
Contributors:	黃智聰 Huang,Jr-Tsung 程小綾 Cheng,Hsiao-Ling
Keywords:	地方選舉政黨輪替連任經濟投票 economic voting local election party rotation renew term of office
Date:	2004
Issue Date:	2009-09-18 10:11:58 (UTC+8)
Abstract:	在經濟與政治關係日益密切的今日，經濟表現是否會影響選舉結果已成為學者所關切的議題。目前西方國家，特別是美國，針對中央層級選舉經濟投票行為方面之研究已有高度共識，即經濟表現不佳，會對執政黨的選情不利。至於地方經濟表現對州長選舉有無影響的實證結果，則較為分歧。本文將經濟投票理論應用至台灣縣市長選舉，以台灣21個縣市在1989年至2001年4屆的縣市長選舉作為研究對象，探討致使地方首長選舉結果出現政黨輪替的可能變數，已彌補現有文獻僅考量政治層面、以及中央層級選舉之不足。經由Probit模型估計後發現，地方失業率於選舉年惡化並不會影響縣市長選舉結果；反而是全國失業率對選舉結果有顯著影響。一般而言，總統政黨執政之縣市皆較非總統政黨執政之縣市不易發生政黨輪替，但若全國失業率於選前攀升，則前者所享有的相對優勢會因此而降低，連帶使其被輪替的機率提升。至於另一全國經濟指標物價膨脹率，則不如全國失業率有影響力，即使物價於選舉年上漲，總統政黨執政縣市出現政黨輪替的機率，亦未有隨之提升的態勢。另外，在政治變數部分，現任者競選連任有利於現任執政政黨於選戰中勝出；府會是否同黨對選舉結果則無顯著影響。而本文依據邊際效用遞減法則提出的假設亦得到證實，即一黨連任屆數與其發生政黨輪替的機率呈正向關係。最後，關於時間及縣市虛擬變數部分，本文發現，2001年14屆縣市長選舉發生政黨輪替的機率為4屆之首；而21縣市中，則以嘉義縣、屏東縣、新竹市、台中市、台中縣及基隆市，分居最易發生政黨輪替縣市的前五名。 Substantial scholarly attention has been at the relationship between economic conditions and election outcomes in most western democratic countries, especially in the United States. Most Studies focused mainly on presidential or congressional elections have indicated a solid evidence that the worse economic conditions will be unfavorable to the incumbents to win the elections. Compared with those coincide conclusions, the results about economic voting in state elections are more discrepancy. This paper applies the economic voting theory to analyze the county magistrates and city mayors elections in Taiwan and uses a county-and city-level panel data from 1989 to 2001 to examine the possible factors which cause the party rotation of the county magistrates and city mayors elections. After estimating Probit model, the primary finding is that the local unemployment rates have no impact on election outcomes of the county magistrates and city mayors. Instead, the national unemployment rates have a significant effect on election outcomes. Generally, the probabilities of party rotation of the counties and cities ruled by the president’s party are lower than others. However, this advantage will be damaged as the national unemployment rate is higher in the election year than that in the previous year. As to the inflation rates, the other national economical index, are not as influential as the national unemployment rates. For all rising in the election year, the probabilities of party rotation won’t go up. Additionally, about the political variables, the incumbents are more likely to defeat the challengers and renew their term of office; it has no significant impact on election outcomes whether the incumbent governors and city or county councils are of the same party. The hypothesis which derives from the law of diminishing marginal utility is also proved. The longer the governing party rules the county or city, the higher the probability of party rotation for this county or city. Finally, the probability of party rotation of the 14th county magistrates and city mayors election is the highest from 1989 to 2001. Chiayi County, Pingdong County, Hsinchu City, Taichung City, Taichung County and Keelung City are the top five ones of the twenty-one counties and cities in terms of the frequency of party rotation.
Reference:	一、中文部分王柏燿（2002），「台灣選民經濟投票之研究：1996-2001年」，國立政治大學政治研究所碩士論文。林佑蓮（2003），「財政收支劃分法之政治經濟分析」，私立中原大學國際貿易學系碩士論文。陳陸輝（1998），「台灣1996年總統選舉之分析」，《選舉研究》，5（1），頁139-160。盛治仁（2000），「統獨不再對決—從2000年總統選舉看台灣新社會分歧的興起及影響」，《理論與政策》，14（2），頁119-139。黃上紡（1996），「選舉與經濟—政治性景氣循環」，《美歐月刊》，11（5），頁51-66。黃英哲、劉瑞宇（1996），「總體政策與選舉的關係—台灣地區實證分析」，《企銀季刊》，19（3），頁104-113。黃秀端（1994），「經濟情況與選民投票抉擇」，《東吳政治學報》，3，頁97-123。黃秀端（1996），「決定勝負的關鍵:候選人特質與能力在總統選舉中的重要性」，《選舉研究》，3(1)，頁103-135。黃國敏（2001），「政府再造與品質績效：影響地方首長連任之路與施政滿意度之政經因素分析」，《中國行政》，69，頁75-100。黃智聰（2001），「台灣選舉與貨幣政策關係之初探」，《中山人文社會科學期刊》，9（1），頁111-136。韓秀珍（2002），「政黨、派系與選舉三角關係之研究：2001年市長、立委選舉以及2002年市議員選舉基隆市個案分析」，國立政治大學中山人文社會科學研究所碩士論文。簡鈺珒（2003），「2000年總統大選選民投票抉擇分析：候選人評價之影響」，國立中正大學政治研究所碩士論文。二、政府出版品台灣省選舉委員會（1989、1990，1993、1994，1997、1998，2001、2002），《公職人員選舉台灣省選務實錄》，南投縣：台灣省選舉委員會。行政院主計處（1988－2001），《中華民國台灣地區人力資源調查統計年報》，台北：行政院主計處。行政院主計處（1994－2002），《中華民國統計月報》，台北：行政院主計處。三、英文文獻 Achen, C. H. (1992), “Social Psychology, Demographic Variables, and Linear Regression: Breaking the Iron Triangle in Voting Research,” Political Behavior, 14, 195-211. Alesina, A. (1987), “Macroeconomic Policy in a Two-Party System as a Repeated Game,” Quarterly Journal of Economics, 102(3-4), 651-678. Bloom, H. S. and H. D. Price (1975), “Voter Response to Short-run Economic Conditions,” American Political Science Review, 69, 1240-1254. Bowler, S. and T. Donovan (1994), “Economic Conditions and Voting on Ballot Propositions,” American Politics Quarterly, 22(1), 27-40. Campbell, A. (1960), The American Voter. New York: Wiley. Carlsen, F. (1997), “Opinion Polls and Political Business Cycle: Theory and Evidence for the United States,” Public Choice, 92(3-4), 387-406. Chubb, J. E. (1988), “Institutions, the Economy, and the Dynamics of State Elections,” American Political Science Review, 82, 133-154. Dahl, R. A. (1971), Participation and Opposition. New Haven: Yale University Press. Downs, A. (1957), An Economic Theory of Democracy. New York: Harper. Fiorina, M. P. (1981), Retrospective Voting in American National Elections. New Haven: Yale University Press. Greene, W. H.（2003）, Econometric Analysis. Upper Saddle River, New Jersey: Prentice Hall. Hecklman, J. and H. Berument (1998), “Political Business Cycles and Endogenous Elections,” Southern Economic Journal, 64, 987-1000. Hibbing, J. R. and J. R. Afford (1981), “The Electoral Impact If Economic Condition: Who Is Held Responsible?” American Journal of Political Science, 25, 423-439. Hibbs, D. A. (1977), “Political Parties and Macroeconomic Policy,” American Political Science Review, 71(4), 1467-1487. Hibbs, D. A. (1979), “The Mass Public and Macroeconomic Performance: The Dynamics of Public Opinion toward Unemployment and Inflation,” American Journal of Political Science, 23(4), 705-731. Hill, R. C., W. E. Griffiths, and G. G. Judge (2001), Undergraduate Econometrics. New York: John Wiley & Sons. Hsiao, Cheng (1995), Analysis of Panel Data. New York: Cambridge University Press. Hsieh, J., D. Lacy, and E. Niou (1996), “Economic Voting in the 1994 Taiwan Elections,” American Asian Review, 14(2), 51-71. Hsieh, J., D. Lacy, and E. Niou (1998), “Retrospective and Prospective Voting in a One-Party-Dominant Democracy: Taiwan’s Presidential Election,” Public Choice, 97, 383-399. Huntington, S. P. (1991), The Third Wave: Democratization in the Late Twentieth Century. Norman : University of Oklahoma Press. Janet, H., E. Renshaw, and B. Szelest (1998), “Modeling the Outcome of Presidential Elections Using Economic Variables: The Smart Use of Dummy Variables,” Journal of Policy modeling, 20(2), 251-259. Kalecki, M. (1943), “Political Aspects of Full Employment,” Political Quarterly, 14, 322-331. Kenny, P. (1983), “The Effect of State Economic Conditions on the Vote for Governor,” Social Science Quarterly, 64,154-162. Kernell, S. (1978), “Explaining Presidential Popularity,” American Political Science Review, 72, 502-522. Key, V. O. (1966), The Responsible Electorate. Cambridge: Belknap Press of Harvard University Press. Kiewiet, D. R.（1983）, Microeconomics & Micropolitics: The Election Effects of Economic Issues. Chicago: University of Chicago Press. Kinder, D. R. and D. R. Kiewiet (1981), “Sociotropic Politics: The American Case,” British Journal of Political Science, 2, 131-143. Kirchgassner, G. (1985), “Causality Testing of the Popularity Function: An Empirical Investigation for the Federal Republic of Germany, 1971-1982,” Public Choice, 45, 155-173. Kramer, G. H. (1971), “Short-Term Fluctuation in U.S. Voting Behavior, 1986-1964,” American Political Science Review, 65, 131-143. Kramer,G. H. (1983), “The Ecological Fallacy Revisited: Aggregate-versus Individual-level Findings on Economics and Elections, and Sociotropic Voting,” American Political Science Review, 77, 92-111. Lächler, U. (1982), “On Political Business Cycles with Endogenous Election Dates,” Journal of Public Economics, 17(1), 111-117. Lafay, J. D. (1985), “Important Political Change and the Stability of the Popularity Function: Before and After the French Election of 1981,” in Eulau, H. and M. S. Lewis-Beck（eds.）, Economic Conditions and Election Outcomes, 78-97. New York: Agathon. Lewis-Beck, M. S. (1988), Economic and Elections: The Major Western Democracies. Ann Arbor: University of Michigan Press. Lewis-Beck, M. S. and T. W. Rice (1992), Forecasting Elections. Washington, DC: Congressional Quarterly Press. Leyden, K. and S. Borrelli (1994), “The Effect of State Economic Conditions on Gubernatorial Elections: Does United Government Make a Difference,” Political Research Quarterly, 48(2), 275-290. Lijphart, A. (1984), Democracies: Patterns of Majoritarian and Consensus Government in Twenty-One Countries. New Haven: Yale University Press. Mackuen, M. B. (1983), “Political Drama, Economic Conditions, and the Dynamics of Presidential Popularity,” American Journal of Political Science, 27(2), 165-192. Markus, G. B. (1993), “The Impact of Personal and National Economic Conditions on the Presidential Vote: A Polled Cross-Sectional Analysis,” American Journal of Political Science, 32, 137-154. McKelvey, R. and W. Zavoina（1975）, “A Statistical Model for the Analysis of Ordinal Level Dependent Variables,” Journal of Mathematical Sociology, 4, 103-120. Molina, J. (2001), “The Electoral effect of Underdevelopment: Government Turnover and Its Causes in Latin-American and Industrialized Counties,” Electoral Studies, 20, 427-446. Niemi, R. G., and H. F. Weisberg (1993), Controversies in Voting Behavior. Washington, D. C.: Congressional Quarterly Press. Nordhaus, W. D. (1975), “The Political Business Cycle,” Review of Economic Studies, 42, 169-190. Pacek, A. and B. Radcliff (1995), “The Political Economy of Competitive Elections in the Developing World,” American Journal of Political Science, 39, 745-759. Partin, R. W. (1995), “Economic Conditions and Gubernatorial Elections Is the State Executive Held Accountable?” American Politics Quarterly, 23(1), 81-95. Price, S. (1997), “Political Business Cycles and Macroeconomic Credibility: A Survey,” Public Choice, 92(3-4), 407-427. Radcliff, B. (1992), “The Welfare State, Turnout, And The Economy: A Comparative Analysis,” American Political Science Review, 85, 444-454. Rogoff, K. and A. Sibert (1988), “Elections and Macroeconomic Policy Cycles,” Review of Economic Studies, 55, 1-16. Schultz, K. A. (1995), “The Politics of the Political Business Cycle,” British Journal of Political Science, 25(1), 79-99. Schumpeter, J. A. (1976), Capitalism, Socialism and Democracy. New York: Haper & Row. Stein, R. M. (1990), “Economic Voting for Governor and U.S. Senator: The Electoral Consequences of Federalism,” Journal of Politics, 52, 29-53. Sundquist, J. L. (1988) “Needed: A Political Theory for the New Era of Coalition Government in the United States,” Political Science Quarterly, 103, 613-635. Tidmarch, C., L. Hyman, and J. Sorkin (1984), “Press Issue Agendas in the 1982 Congressional and Gubernatorial Election Campaign,” Journal of Politics, 46, 1226-1245. Tompkins, M. E. (1984), “The Electoral Fortunes of Gubernatorial Incumbents, 1947-1981,” Journal of Politics, 46, 520-543. Tsai, Chia-Hung (2000), “American Voter Responses to International Political Events and Economic Conditions: 1920-1996,”European and American Studies, 30, 143-191. Weatherford, M. S. (1978), “Economic Conditions and Electoral Outcomes: Class Differences in the Political Response to Recession,” American Journal of Political Science, 22, 917-938. Wu, Yu-Shan (2001), “Comparing Third-Wave Democracies: East Central Europe and the ROC,” Issues & Studies, 37(4), 1-37.
Description:	碩士國立政治大學中山人文社會科學研究所 92261001 93
Source URI:	http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0922610011
Data Type:	thesis
Appears in Collections:	[Graduate Institute of Development Studies] Theses

Files in This Item:

File	Size	Format
61001101.pdf	48Kb	Adobe PDF2	835	View/Open
61001102.pdf	80Kb	Adobe PDF2	802	View/Open
61001103.pdf	83Kb	Adobe PDF2	778	View/Open
61001104.pdf	65Kb	Adobe PDF2	830	View/Open
61001105.pdf	130Kb	Adobe PDF2	1098	View/Open
61001106.pdf	184Kb	Adobe PDF2	2753	View/Open
61001107.pdf	198Kb	Adobe PDF2	2713	View/Open
61001108.pdf	188Kb	Adobe PDF2	1023	View/Open
61001109.pdf	195Kb	Adobe PDF2	1442	View/Open
61001110.pdf	109Kb	Adobe PDF2	876	View/Open
61001111.pdf	84Kb	Adobe PDF2	999	View/Open
61001112.pdf	71Kb	Adobe PDF2	1214	View/Open

社群 sharing

Loading...