政大機構典藏-National Chengchi University Institutional Repository(NCCUR):Item 140.119/34259
English  |  正體中文  |  简体中文  |  Post-Print筆數 : 27 |  全文笔数/总笔数 : 113656/144643 (79%)
造访人次 : 51723801      在线人数 : 302
RC Version 6.0 © Powered By DSPACE, MIT. Enhanced by NTU Library IR team.
搜寻范围 查询小技巧：
  • 您可在西文检索词汇前后加上"双引号"，以获取较精准的检索结果
  • 若欲以作者姓名搜寻，建议至进阶搜寻限定作者字段，可获得较完整数据
    •  进阶搜寻
    政大機構典藏 > 商學院 > 會計學系 > 學位論文 >  Item 140.119/34259


    请使用永久网址来引用或连结此文件: https://nccur.lib.nccu.edu.tw/handle/140.119/34259


    题名: 景氣循環、分析師盈餘預測與股價反應
    作者: 廖致翔
    贡献者: 張清福
    廖致翔
    关键词: 景氣循環
    分析師預測
    未預期盈餘
    business cycle
    analyst forecast
    earnings surprise
    日期: 2002
    上传时间: 2009-09-18 09:09:47 (UTC+8)
    摘要: 達成或超越分析師的盈餘預期為公司重要目標之一，市場包括投資人或分析師對於公司達成盈餘預期目標的反應，一直為學界所關心。文獻發現達成盈餘預期目標的公司，確實享有較未達成目標者更高的股價報酬，顯示市場對此持有正面的反應，因為達成目標的公司，未來將有較佳的獲利能力。本文延伸文獻之探討，進一步考量經濟環境因素---景氣反轉，在這一議題上可能扮演的角色，亦即試圖探討景氣反轉時市場對公司達成或超越分析師盈餘預期的反應，以及達成盈餘預期目標的資訊內涵，會如何受到景氣反轉因素的影響。
    實證結果發現達成或超越分析師盈餘預期事件所帶來的股價反應，不會受到景氣由上往下反轉的影響而有所差異，但分析師對此等事件的反應則會隨景氣由上往下反轉而更為強烈，在景氣由下往上反轉時則較無差異；至於此等事件所隱含公司未來將有較佳獲利能力的資訊內涵，雖不會隨著景氣由上往下反轉而有所差異，卻會隨著景氣由下往上反轉而更為增強。
    Meeting or beating analysts’ earnings forecasts is an important goal for the management to achieve. As a result, the market reaction to the meeting of earnings expectations has been intensively explored. In general, the meeting of earnings expectations signals brilliant future profitability to the investors. Following this line of research, this study further investigates the effect of business cycle on the relationship between market reaction and the meeting of earnings expectations.
    We find that the stock returns of firms meeting or beating analysts’ forecasts are not affected by the sudden downturn of the economy. On the contrary, analysts’ response to such events becomes stronger in the economic downturn though it remains the same when the economy rebounds. As for the issue of information content, meeting earnings expectations is more informative when the economy rebounds from recession but not in the downturn of the economy.
    參考文獻: Abarbanell, J. S. 1991. Do analysts’ earnings forecasts incorporate information in prior stock price changes? Journal of Accounting and Economics 14: 147-165.
    Abarbanell, J. S., and V. L. Bernard. 1992. Test of analysts’ overreaction/underreaction to earnings information as an explanation for anomalous stock price behavior. Journal of Finance 47: 1181-1207.
    Ahmed, A. S., G. J. Lobo, and X. H. Zhang. 2000. Do analysts under-react to bad news and over-react to good news? Working paper, Syracuse University and University of Chicago.
    Banerji, A. 1999. The three Ps: Simple tools for monitoring economic cycles. Business Economics 34: 72-76.
    Barth, M. E., J. A. Elliott, and M. W. Finn. 1999. Market rewards associated with patterns of increasing earnings. Journal of Accounting Research 37: 387-413.
    Bartov, E., D. Givoly, and C. Hayn. 2002. The rewards to meeting or beating earnings expectations. Journal of Accounting and Economics 33: 173-204.
    Brown, L. D. 2001. A temporal analysis of earnings surprise: Profits versus losses. Journal of Accounting Research 39: 221-241.
    Burgstahler, D., and I. Dichev. 1997. Earnings management to avoid earnings decreases and losses. Journal of Accounting and Economics 24: 99-126.
    Burgstahler, D., and M. Eames. 2001. Management of earnings and analyst forecasts. Working paper, University of Washington.
    Burgstahler, D., W. D. Kinney, and R. Martin. 2000. Earnings surprise “materiality” as measured by stock returns. Journal of Accounting Research 40: 1297-1329.
    Burnie, D. A., and M. K. Kim. 2002. The firm size effect and the economic cycle. The Journal of Financial Research 25: 111-124.
    Degeorge, F., J. Patel, and R. Zeckhauser. 1999. Earnings management to exceed thresholds. Journal of Business 72: 1-33.
    Dugar, A., and S. Nathan. 1995. The effects of investment banking relationships on financial analyst’ earnings forecasts and investment recommendations. Contemporary Accounting Research 12: 131-160.
    Duru, A., and D. M. Reeb. 2002. International diversification and analysts` forecast accuracy and bias. The Accounting Review 77: 415-433.
    Fox, J. 1997. Learn to play the earnings game (and wall street will love you). Fourtune 135: 76-80.
    Francis, J., and D. Philbrick. 1993. Analysts’ decisions as products of a multi-task environment. Journal of Accounting Research 31: 216-230.
    Freeman, R. N., and S. Y. Tse. 1992 A non-linear model of security price response to unexpected earnings. Journal of Accounting Research 30: 427-439.
    Hunton, J. E., R. J. Libby, and H. T. Tan. 2002. Analysts` reactions to earnings preannouncement strategies. Journal of Accounting Research 40: 223-246.
    Kasznik, R. 1999. On the association between voluntary disclosure and earnings management. Journal of Accounting Research 37: 57-81.
    Kasznik, R., and B. Lev. 1995. To warn or not to warn: Management disclosures in the face of an earnings surprise. The Accounting Review 70: 113-134.
    Kasznik, R., and M. F. McNichols. 2002. Does meeting earnings expectations matter? Evidence from analyst forecast revisions and share prices. Journal of Accounting Research 40: 727-759.
    Klein, A. 1990. A direct test of the cognitive bias theory of share price reversals. Journal of Accounting and Economics 13: 155-166.
    Levitt, A. 1998. The numbers game. Remarks delivered at the NYU Center for Law and Business, New York, NY.
    Libby, R., and H. T. Tan. 1999. Analysts` reaction to warnings of negative earnings surprises. Journal of Accounting Research 37: 415-435.
    Lin, H., and M. McNichols. 1998. Underwriting relationships, analysts’ earnings forecasts, and investment recommendations. Journal of Accounting and Economics 25: 101-128.
    Matolcsy, Z. P. 2000. Executive cash compensation and corporate performance during different economic cycles. Contemporary Accounting Research 17: 671-692.
    Matsumoto, D. A. 1999. Manangement`s incentives to guide analysts` forecasts. Working Paper, Harvard University.
    Matsumoto, D. A. 2002. Manangement`s incentives to avoid negative earnings surprises. The Accounting Review 77: 483-514.
    McGee, S. 1997. As stock market surges ahead, “predictable” profits are driving it. Wall Street Journal: C1.
    McNichols, M., and P. C. O`Brien. 1997. Self-selection and analyst coverage. Journal of Accounting Research 35: 167-199.
    Payne, J. L., and S. W. G. Robb. 2000. Earnings management: The effect of ex ante earnings expectations. Journal of Accounting, Auditing, and Finance 15: 371.
    Richardson, S., S. H. Teoh, and P. Wysocki. 1999. Tracking analysts` forecasts over the annual earnings horizon: Are analysts` forecasts optimistic or pessimistic? Working Paper, University of Michigan Business School.
    Skinner, D. J., and R. G. Sloan. 2001. Earnings surprises, growth expectations and stock returns or don’t let a torpedo stock sink your portfolio. Working paper, University of Michigan.
    Turner, L. 2000. Remarks to the 39th annual corporate counsel institute, presented at Nouthwestern University School of Law.
    Vickers, M. 1999. Ho-hum, another earnings surprise. Business Week 3630: 83-84.
    描述: 碩士
    國立政治大學
    會計研究所
    90353017
    91
    資料來源: http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0903530171
    数据类型: thesis
    显示于类别:[會計學系] 學位論文

    文件中的档案:

    档案 描述 大小格式浏览次数
    53017101.pdf13KbAdobe PDF2680检视/开启
    53017102.pdf16KbAdobe PDF2711检视/开启
    53017103.pdf17KbAdobe PDF2703检视/开启
    53017104.pdf20KbAdobe PDF2641检视/开启
    53017105.pdf28KbAdobe PDF2875检视/开启
    53017106.pdf55KbAdobe PDF21008检视/开启
    53017107.pdf61KbAdobe PDF2801检视/开启
    53017108.pdf86KbAdobe PDF2758检视/开启
    53017109.pdf22KbAdobe PDF2740检视/开启
    53017110.pdf24KbAdobe PDF2824检视/开启


    在政大典藏中所有的数据项都受到原著作权保护.


    社群 sharing

    著作權政策宣告 Copyright Announcement
    1.本網站之數位內容為國立政治大學所收錄之機構典藏，無償提供學術研究與公眾教育等公益性使用，惟仍請適度，合理使用本網站之內容，以尊重著作權人之權益。商業上之利用，則請先取得著作權人之授權。
    The digital content of this website is part of National Chengchi University Institutional Repository. It provides free access to academic research and public education for non-commercial use. Please utilize it in a proper and reasonable manner and respect the rights of copyright owners. For commercial use, please obtain authorization from the copyright owner in advance.

    2.本網站之製作，已盡力防止侵害著作權人之權益，如仍發現本網站之數位內容有侵害著作權人權益情事者，請權利人通知本網站維護人員(nccur@nccu.edu.tw)，維護人員將立即採取移除該數位著作等補救措施。
    NCCU Institutional Repository is made to protect the interests of copyright owners. If you believe that any material on the website infringes copyright, please contact our staff(nccur@nccu.edu.tw). We will remove the work from the repository and investigate your claim.
    DSpace Software Copyright © 2002-2004  MIT &  Hewlett-Packard  /   Enhanced by   NTU Library IR team Copyright ©   - 回馈