政大機構典藏-National Chengchi University Institutional Repository(NCCUR):Item 140.119/33916

政大機構典藏-National Chengchi University Institutional Repository(NCCUR):Item 140.119/33916

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题名:	台灣地區鄉鎮市區生育率的空間與群集研究
作者:	許添容 Hsu, Tien-Jung Albert
贡献者:	余清祥 Yue, Ching-Syang Jack 許添容 Hsu, Tien-Jung Albert
关键词:	生育率人口老化空間統計空間群聚空間迴歸 Fertility Rates Aging Population Spatial Statistics Spatial Clustering Spatial Regression
日期:	2003
上传时间:	2009-09-17 18:48:07 (UTC+8)
摘要:	生育率的降低是影響台灣地區近年來人口老化的顯著因素，因其變化幅度通常高於死亡率，對人口結構的影響較大。過去台灣地區生育率研究多為整體生育(如：總生育率、年齡別生育率)趨勢的模型，較少探討台灣各地區的特色。為能更深入瞭解台灣生育行為變化的特性，本文將生育率的研究層面由整體的資料，延伸至全台灣地區的各鄉鎮市區（不含離島地區有350個鄉鎮市區），希冀能更精確地找出與台灣地區生育率持續下降的相關因素。本文分為兩個部份，以鄉鎮市區的年齡別婦女生育率與年齡別有偶婦女生育率為研究對象，資料時間為1991、1992、2001、2002年：第一部份探討各鄉鎮市區的生育率數值間是否存在空間相關性，並進一步瞭解生育率較高（或較低）的地區是否有聚集的現象。第二部份則套用空間迴歸模型探討與生育率數值有關的因素（例如：人口密度、教育程度等），更精確且客觀地提供生育率未來趨勢的建議。關鍵字：生育率、人口老化、空間統計、空間群聚、空間迴歸 Both the fertility rates and mortality rates, especially the fertility rates, have been experiencing dramatic decreases in recent years, and the population aging thus has become one of the major concerns in Taiwan area. In order to identify the factors that are related to the decrease of fertility rates, unlike the previous works that deal with the aggregate national data, we will study the fertility pattern in township level. We will use the data of age-specific fertility rates and total fertility rates in 1991, 1992, 2001, and 2002 in 350 townships of Taiwan area. This study will be separated into two parts. First, we shall explore if there is spatial correlation among 350 townships of Taiwan area and detect if there are spatial clusters for higher fertility townships. The second part of this project will be focused on the spatial regression model. We will use this model to determine the factors that are highly correlated to the dropping of fertility rates. Key Words: Fertility Rates, Aging Population, Spatial Statistics, Spatial Clustering, Spatial Regression
參考文獻:	中文部分行政院衛生署統計室之89年醫療保健支出統計報告，行政院衛生署網站。http://www.doh.gov.tw 內政部統計處(1963-2003)，中華民國台閩地區人口統計。周世宏(2001)台灣地區死亡率參數模型之研究，逢甲大學統計與精算研究所碩士論文。張正鵬(1998)台灣地區高齡人口死亡率之預測，國立政治大學統計研究所碩士論文。藍銘偉(2003)台灣地區生育率模型之研究，國立政治大學統計研究所碩士論文。李美玲(1990)生育步調與生育轉型：台灣地區總生育率之分析，東海大學社會所。謝純瑩、周國屏(2002)應用空間自相關分析於人口老化時空變遷，人口學刊，25：91-119 黃信誠空間統計簡介，中央研究院統計所網站 http://www.stat.sinica.edu.tw/~hchuang/spatialstat.html 余清祥、陳楓玲(2003) A Simulation Study of Detecting Clusters: An Application of Taiwan Cancer Mortality，國立政治大學統計系技術報告。英文部分 Alho, M. J. (1989), Relating changes in life expectancy to changes in mortality, Demography, 26: 705-709. Anselin, L. (1999), Global spatial autocorrelation, University of Illinois, Urbana-Champaign, http://geog55.geog.uiuc.edu/sa Anselin, L. (1999), Spatial Regression, University of Illinois, Urbana-Champaign, Center for Spatially Integrated Social Science, http://www.spacestat.com Choynowski, M. (1959), Maps based on probabilities, Journal of the American Statistical Association, 54: 385-388. Cressie, N.(1993), Statistics for spatial data, revised edition. Willey, New York. Cressie, N. and Chan, N. H. (1989), Spatial modeling of regional variables, Journal of the American Statistical Association, 80:394-401. Hacker, J. D. (2003), Rethinking the “early” decline of marital fertility in the United States, Demography, 40:605-620. Huerta, G., Sanso, B. and Stroud, J. R. (2004), A spatiotemporal model for Mexico City ozone levels, Appl. Statist., 53:231-248. Kelejian, H. H. and Prucha, I. R. (1997), Estimation of spatial regression models with autoregressive errors by two-stage least squares procedures: a serious problem, International regional science review, 20, 1 & 2: 103–111 (1997) Kaluzny, S. P., Vega, S. C., Cardoso, T. P., and Shelly, A. A. (1997), S+SpatialStats: user’s manual for Windows and UNIX/ Stephen P., Springer, New York. Lawson, A. B. and Clark, A. (2002), Spatial mixture relative risk models applied to disease mapping, Statist. Med., 21:359-370. Morgan, S. P. (2003), Is low fertility a twenty-first-century demographic crisis?, Demography, 40:589-603. Malthus, T. (1798), An essay on the principle of population: A view of its past and present effects on human happiness; with an inquiry into our prospects respecting the future removal or mitigation of the evils which it occasions., J. Johnson, London. Marshal, R. J. (1991), A review of the statistical analysis of spatial patterns of disease, Journal of the Royal Statistical Society, Series A, 154: 421-441. Openshaw, S., Craft, A. W., Charlton, M. G. and Birch, J. M. (1988) , Investigation of leukaemia clusters by use of a geographical analysis machine, Lancet, i: 272-273. Openshaw, S., Turner, A., Turton, I., Macgill, J. (1988), Testing space-time and more complex hyperspace geographical analysis tool, http://www.ccg.leeds.ac.uk/smart/hyper.html Stroud, J. R., Muller, P. and Sanso, B. (2001), Dynamic model for spatiotemporal data, J. R. Statist. Soc., 63:673-689. Turnbull, B. W., Iwano, E. J., Burnett, W. S., Howe, H. L. and Clark, L. C. (1990) , Monitoring for clusters of disease: application to leukemia incidence in upstate New York, American Journal of Epidemiology, 132: S136-143.
描述:	碩士國立政治大學統計研究所 91354022 92
資料來源:	http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0913540221
数据类型:	thesis
显示于类别:	[統計學系] 學位論文

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