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    Title: 冷戰後美國對中國戰略態勢之研究-兼論雙邊軍事交流
    Authors: 馮嘉惠
    Contributors: 賴岳謙
    朱新民
    黃奎博




    馮嘉惠
    Keywords: 軍事交流
    美中關係
    美國戰略
    亞太政策
    Military Contact
    U.S.-Sino Relation
    Date: 2004
    Issue Date: 2009-09-17 17:52:17 (UTC+8)
    Abstract: 美國對中國的定位到底是敵?是友?或亦敵亦友?中美的外交關係面臨擺盪起伏,而兩國的軍事交流更是讓人霧裡看花。因軍事交流身於外交及國防的交集處,因此為探討兩國軍事交流,必先釐清華府全球戰略意向及對北京的外交政策,方能了解兩國軍事交流的目的並進而預測其未來走向。

    華滋(Kenneth Waltz)體系論提到,強權的興衰可決定國際政治運作的方式,國際結構組成,並進而影響國家的行為。冷戰時期,美國及蘇聯實力相當,國際社會一分為二,依照兩強所領導的價值觀而運作。在當時,美國戰略以發展軍事實力,保障本國及盟邦安全,避免兩極失去平衡為目標。除發展自身實力外,並以合縱連橫的方式,尋求他國的合作共同對抗蘇聯。

    七0年代,蘇聯迅速擴張其勢力,美國擔心兩極就此失去平衡,恰於此時中蘇關係彽朝,美國利用此機會進行中美關係正常化。蘇聯持續擴張帶來的威脅,促使美國開啟對華軍事轉移,希望利用中國優勢地緣位置,以增加其國防實力的方式,牽制蘇聯的發展。從八0年代開啟的中美軍事交流目的很單純,一切以共同對抗蘇聯為目的。

    一九八九年東歐變天,繼而蘇聯解體,國際政治成為美國獨霸的世界。華府將其全球戰略由對抗蘇聯,過渡為維持單極優勢領導。美國軍事國防存在的目的也由維持兩極平衡,轉變為維持經濟於區域存在的後盾。布希政府時期以「世界新秩序」為新全球戰略,強調透過美國領導,國際合作的方式達成美國治下的和平。亞太戰略方面,以扇形理論維持在區域內存在,避免單一國家控制區域內綜合資源,同時藉由與扇沿國家的互動,打造一個符合自身利益存在的安全環境。因中國自七0年代開始只是美國策略性聯盟的夥伴,在蘇聯這個共同敵人消失後,美國遲遲無法決定對這個世界第二大的共產國家該採取什麼態度,尤其是兩國軍事交流。老布希政府時期發生的天安門事件,恰好替美國暫停對華軍事交流找到一個藉口。自一九八九年六月,美方中止了八0年代開始大量的軍售、裝備合作及高層互訪。

    美國自冷戰結束後發展的單極優勢領導全球戰略觀一直延續至今。在柯林頓時期名為「交往與擴大」,透過安全性合作、選擇性介入及預防外交等方式,建構起美國領導的國際社會。在亞太政策上,沿用布希政府策略,更名為「新太平洋共同體」,以政治、經濟及軍事三管齊下方式,防止美國影響力無法進入區域,降低區域強權如俄羅斯、中國對美國的挑戰。在對華政策方面,美國本身即充滿矛盾,一方面是冷戰後失去敵人的沒方向感作祟,亟需尋求一替代的假想敵,一方面又需要中國在區域及全球安全議題共同合作,在兩者拉力下出現柯林頓政府時期對華「全面交往」及「建設性戰略伙伴」政策。

    無論是「全面交往」或「建設性戰略伙伴」,都是美國希望透過「異中求同、求同存異」,爭取中國在區域、全球議題的支持,如北韓問題及武器不擴散議題。更深化的目的在於透過將中國拉入國際社會,運用融入、同化的方式,以影響甚至改造北京當局。兩國的軍事交流可視為美國對中國軍事現代化的疑慮、對武器擴散的關心以及對區域安全關注的綜合產物。一九九三年中美「全面性交往」提供兩國重新開啟軍事交流的基礎。然因失去實質的目的,如共同對抗敵人,僅存策略目的,如上述對中國軍事現代化疑慮…等,使得雙方軍事關係在面臨李登輝訪美、中國駐南斯拉夫大使館遭到轟炸兩次外交瓶頸後慘遭挫敗。

    小布希上任第一年,美國便面臨了九一一恐怖攻擊,為了共同反恐的需要,美國放棄強硬單邊的全球戰略觀,將國土安全提升至戰略第一位,並爭取全球打擊恐怖主義的支持。在亞太政策上,除區域盟國外,亦相當注重與大國,如俄羅斯、中國及印度的交往互動。美中關係此時也從二00一年四月中美軍機擦撞陰霾中解凍,美國放棄稱呼中國為「戰略競爭者」,改稱「建設性的合作關係」。

    中美「建設性合作關係」亦是種「異中求同,求同存異」的手段。兩國關係是否真的好轉,由當時一連串政府對華評估報告書中,證明美國對中國仍懷有強大的戒心。當時美國對中國的友善,不過是反映了專心反恐的需要,希望中國在各議題與之合作,尤其是維持區域的安定。軍事交流就是最好的印證,雖然九一一事件後兩國軍事交流大增,但細就其項目多為消極的嚇阻、預防衝突發生,就深度上與前兩任政府時期幾乎無異。

    觀察一九八九至二00四年,中美軍事交流廣度展開,但深度並未增加。究其原因可歸為因兩國互相帶有高度戒心,而軍事交流不過是求取降低衝突發生的產物。在華府及北京仍相互定位不明、彼此疑慮的情況下,預料未來兩國軍事交流仍難有重大的突破。
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    (三) 報紙
    人民日報
    大陸情勢週報
    中央日報
    中時晚報
    中國時報
    民生報
    世界日報
    自由時報
    香港大公報
    香港文匯報
    經濟日報
    解放軍報
    聯合報
    聯合晚報
    環球時報
    (四) 網路
    人民網www.people.com.cn
    中時電子報http://news.chinatimes.com
    中國新聞網www.chinanews.com.cn
    新華網www.xinhuanet.com.cn
    二、 英文部分
    (一) 專書
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    Baldwin, David A. Neorealism and Neoliberalism : The Contemporary Debate (New York : Columbia University Press, 1993).
    Carter, Ashton B. and Perry, William J. Preventive Defense: A New Security Strategy for America (Washington, D.C.: Brookings Institute Press, 1999).
    Flanagan, Stephen J. and Marti, Michael E. eds. The People’s Liberation Army and China in Transition (Washington D.C.: National Defense University Press, 2003).
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    President George Bush, Speech at Texas A and M University Commencement, Weekly Compilation of Presidential Document, Vol. 2, No. 20 (May 12, 1989), pp.699-702.
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    President George Bush, “America`s Role in the World,” U.S. Department of State Dispatch Vol, 4 (January 1993), pp.13-15.
    President George Bush, “I Want to Keep Contact; I do not Want Isolation,” Weekly Compilation of Presidential Documents, Vol. 26, No. 4 (January 29,1990), pp. 89-93.
    President George Bush, Department of States Dispatch, Vol.3, No.31 (August 3, 1992).
    President George Bush, “Remarks to General Dynamics Employees in Fort Worth, Texas, September 2, 1992,” Weekly Compilation of Presidential Documents, Vol. 28, No. 36 (September 7, 1992), pp.1556-1557.
    President George Bush, Department of States Dispatch, Vol.3, No.37 (September 14, 1992).
    President William Clinton, “Building a New Pacific Community,” U.S. Department of State Dispatch, Vol. 4, No. 28 (July 12, 1993).
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    Rachman, Gideon. “Containing China,” The Washington Quarterly, Vol. 19, No. 1 (Spring 1996), pp.129-140.
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    Rose, Richard. “Comparing Forms of Comparative Analysis,”Political Studies(1991), pp. 444-462.
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    Secretary of Defense Dick Cheney,“The Military We Need in the Future,”Vital Speeches of the Day, Vol.59, No.1 (October 15, 1992),pp. 11-14.
    Secretary of Defense William Perry, “The Sino-U.S. Relationship and Its Impact on World Peace,”U.S. Department of State Dispatch, Vol. 5, No. 44(October 31, 1994).
    Secretary of State Madeleine K. Albright, “China on the Threshold of a New Era,” U.S. Department of State Dispatch, Vol. 8, No. 5(June 24, 1997).
    Secretary of State Warren Christopher, “Comprehensive Engagement,” U.S. Department of State Dispatch, Vol. 6, No. 17(April 24, 1995).
    Secretary of State Warren Christopher, “American Interest and the U.S.-China Relations,” U.S. Department of State Dispatch, Vol. 7, No. 22(May 27, 1996).
    Secretary of State Warren Christopher, The United States and China: Building a New Era of Cooperation for a New Century,” U.S. Department of State Dispatch, Vol. 7, No. 30(July 22, 1996).
    Secretary of State Warren Christopher, “The U.S. and China: Cooperating on Common Concerns,”U.S. Department of State Dispatch, Vol. 7, No. 31(July 29, 1996).
    Statement by Department Spokesman Richard Boucher, “President Decision on Military Sales to China,”Department of States Dispatch, Vol. 4, No.1 (January 4, 1993).
    Segal, Gerald. “The Coming Confrontation Between China and Japan,” World Policy Journal, Vol. 10, No. 2(Summer 1993), pp.27-32.
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    Under Secretary for Economic and Agriculture Affairs of the Department of State Robert B. Zeollick, “U.S. Relations with Asia and the Pacific: A New Era,” Department of States Dispatch, Vol.3, No.31 (August 3, 1992), pp.706-707.
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    三、 官方文件
    Assistant Secretary of Defense Joseph S. Nye, Press Release (December 12, 1995).
    Assistant Secretary of State for East Asian and Pacific Stanley O. Roth , U.S.-China Relations and the China Policy Act of 1997 (September 17, 1997).
    Director of Central Intelligence, The Acquisition of Technology Relating to Weapons Of Mass Destruction an Advanced Conventional Munitions(July/December,1996).
    Hearing before the Committee on Foreign Relations of Senate, U.S. and Chinese Policies Toward Occupied Tibet (102nd Congress, July 28, 1992).
    James A. Kelly, United States Policy in East Asia and the Pacific: Challenges and Priorities, Testimony before the Subcommittee on East Asia and Pacific. House Committee on International Relations, AIT BG-2001-7, July 2, 2001.
    Joint Chiefs of Staff, National Military Strategy, (1991, 1992, 1993 and 1995).
    Joint Chiefs of Staff, Joint Military Net Assessment (JMNA) (1991 and 1992).
    Joint Chiefs of Staff Henry Shelton, Joint Vision 2020 (May 2000).
    President George Bush., Remarks to the Asia Society in New York City ( November 12, 1991).
    President George W. Bush, The President’s State of the Union Address ( January 29, 2002).
    President George W. Bush, Remarks by the President at 2002 Graduation Exercises of the United States Military Academy (West Point: June 1, 2002).
    Office of Homeland Security, National Strategy for Homeland Security (July 2002).
    President William J. Clinton, Remarks on American Security in a Changing World, (George Washington University, Washington D.C., August 5, 1996.)
    President William J. Clinton, Remarks by President Clinton in Address on China and the National Interest (October 24, 1997).
    President William J.Clinton, U.S.-China Relations in the 21st Century (The White House Office of Press Secretary, June 11, 1998).
    Robert Sutter, Increased Military Sales to China: Arguments and Alternatives, Congressional Research Service, Report No.81-121 F (20 May, 1981).
    Robert Sutter, CRS Report for Congress 96-66F (The Library of Congress: January 16, 1996).
    Schifter, Discussion of Human Rights Issues (Telegram 40377 from the Embassy in Beijing, December 19, 1990).
    Secretary of Defense William Perry, Engagement Is Neither Containment Nor Appeasement, Speech at Washington State China Relations Council (October 30, 1995).
    Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld, Confirmation Hearing before the U.S. Senate Committee on Armed Service (January 11, 2001).
    Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld, Senate Armed Service Committee Testimony (June 28, 2001).
    Secretary of State Warren Christopher, American Interests and the U.S.-China Relationship ( May 17, 1996).
    Secretary of State-Designate Madeleine K. Albright, Statement before the Senate Foreign Relations Committee (January 8, 1997).
    Secretary of State-Designate Madeleine K. Albright (January 24, 1997).
    Secretary of State Colin Powell, Testimony before Senate Foreign Relations Committee (January 17, 2001).
    Shirley Kan, China’s Military: Roles and Implications for U.S. Policy Toward China, CRS Report for Congress (3 October, 1991).
    Shirley A. Kan, CRS Report for Congress: Taiwan Major U.S. Arms Sales Since 1990, RL30957.
    The Commission on America’s National Interest, America’s National Interests (July 2000).
    The White House, China’s MFN Status: Summary of the Report and Recommendations of Secretary of State Warren Christopher (May 26, 1994).
    The White House, A National Security Strategy of Engagement and Enlargement, (February 1996).
    The White House, President’s Remarks to the Pacific Basin Economic Council, (May 20, 1996).
    The White House, A National Security Strategy for A New Century (May 1997).
    The White House, President Discuss National Missile Defense (December 13, 2001).
    The White House, The National Security Strategy of The United States of America (September 2002).
    U.S. Bureau of Export Administration, U.S. Technology Transfers to the People’s Republic of China (January 1999).
    U.S. Congress, Crisis In the Taiwan Strait: Implications for U.S. Foreign Policy, 104th Congress, 2nd Session ( March 14, 1996)
    U.S. Congressional Quarterly Almanac (1989, 1991 and 1992).
    U.S. Congressional Record (March 9, 1995, and March 21, 1996)
    U.S. Department of Commerce, U.S. Foreign Trade Highlights 1992(Except) (June 1993).
    U.S. Department of Defense, East Asia Strategy Initiative: Report to Congress (1990).
    U.S. Department of Defense, The Base Force: A Total Force (September 25, 1991).
    U.S. Department of Defense, A Strategic Framework for the Asian Pacific Rim: Report to Congress (1992).
    U.S. Department of Defense, Report on the Bottom-Up Review (October 1993).
    U.S. Department of Defense, East Asian Strategy Report 1995 (February 1995).
    U.S. Department of Defense, Report of the Quadrennial Defense Review (May 1997).
    U.S. Department of Defense, The United States Security Strategy for the East Asian- Pacific Region 1998 (July 1997).
    U.S. Department of Defense, Quadrennial Defense Review Report (September 2001).
    U.S. Department of Defense, Nuclear Posture Review 2002 (Excerpt).
    U.S. Department of Defense, Military Power of the People’s Republic of China: Annual Report (2002, 2004).
    U.S. Department of State, Remarks by Secretary of State Warren Christopher and Chinese Vice Premier Qian Qichen (April 21, 1996).
    U.S. Department of State, Bureau of Public Affairs, The Enlargement of NATO: Why Adding Poland, Hungary, and the Czech Republic to NATO Strengthens American National Security (1998).
    U.S. General Accounting Office, Force Structure: Issues Involving the Base Force (Washington, D.C., January 1993). Report NO. GAO/NSIAD-93-65.
    U.S. House of Representative, Select Committee, U.S. National Security and Military/ Commercial Concerns with the People’s Republic of China, Vols. 1-3 (Washington D.C.: U.S. Government Printing Office, May 25, 1999)
    U. S. National Intellegence Council, “East Asia and the United States: Current Status and Five-Year Outlook,” (September 2000).
    U.S. Navy Commander in Chief U.S. Pacific Command Dennis C. Blair,, Before the House International Relations Committee Subcommittee on East Asia and Pacific And Subcommittee on Middle East and South Asia (February 27, 2002).
    (三) 報紙
    Christian Science Monitor
    International Herald Tribune
    Los Angles Times
    The New York Times
    The Straits Times
    Wall Street Journal
    Washington Post
    (四) 其他
    ABC News
    CNN News
    Kissinger’s Record of World Events, New Digest, November 1991.
    United States Information Agency, USIA News.
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