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    题名: 霸權的剛性與柔性權力：從英美歷史看中國崛起
    作者: 陳文葳
    贡献者: 張京育
    陳文葳
    关键词: 霸權
    崛起
    權力
    柔性權力
    日期: 2006
    上传时间: 2009-09-17 17:49:58 (UTC+8)
    摘要: 本文以國際關係中的權力理論探討歷史上霸權的崛起，並關注當代中國的崛起與未來。透過檢視摩根索(Hans Morgenthau)的權力理論與奈伊(Joseph Nye)的柔性權力(soft power)理論，本文試圖填補國際關係理論中「傳統剛性權力與柔性權力相互關係」的不足，發現兩者相互建構的密切關係與互異的權力性質。奈伊的柔性權力理論相對於傳統剛性權力雖然是九０年代的新概念，然而在摩根索的權力理論當中也可窺見其影，這說明柔性權力並非當代美國的專利，其存在可透過歷史驗證。
    霸權是國家權力尋求極大化的結果。本文的兩組案例：十九世紀的大英帝國與二十世紀的美國的崛起歷史即是剛性與柔性兩種權力的交互作用結果。上述兩國的軍事、經濟、科技與其他文化力量在其崛起過程中逐步累積，其規模與速度的優勢是導致兩國脫穎而出的關鍵，其中較容易被忽略的文化力量對英美兩國而言，其重要性遠超越想像，這也就是說，柔性權力對一國的重要性遠大於目前國際關係學者的認識，而這也是本文最主要的發現。
    當前的中國因其崛起現象而被視為下一個領導世界的霸權候選人，因此本文著重檢視中國的柔性權力狀態以觀察其崛起動能，發現中國的文化與外交力量正透過中國官方的扶植與支持而快速增加。相較於英美崛起的歷史經驗，中國的柔性權力展現高度的國家戰略性，也因此形成「具中國特色的柔性權力」。中國仰賴其「具中國特色的柔性權力」做為國家戰略以尋求國家地位的提升則是本文的第二項主要發現。
    上述「具中國特色的柔性權力」大舉吸引世界目光說明她以柔性權力為崛起戰略的意涵，然而這項歷史發展也與英美霸權的崛起軌跡產生差異，主因仍在其國內政治體制與西方的差異以及全球化浪潮的影響程度差異。面對上述衝擊，一個逐漸崛起的中國可能產生三種不同的未來想定(scenario)：堅持現有路線（維持國內政治穩定，但減損對西方國家的柔性權力）、轉向英美崛起軌跡（國內政治改革可能引發衝擊）、超越歷史終結（尋求比目前西方民主體制更為廣泛接受的政治體制），本文對中國未來的預測偏向第三種想定。
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    Kant, Immanuel. Perpetual Peace and Other Essays on Politics, History and Morals. 1993. Indianapolis: Hackett Pub. Co.
    Keay, John. The Honourable Company: A History of the English East India Company. 1991. London: HarperCollins.
    Keegan, John. The Second World War. 2005. New York: Penguin Press.
    Kennedy, Paul. The Rise and Fall of the Great Powers: Economic Change and Military Conflict from 1500 to 2000. 1989. New York : Vintage Books.
    Keohane, Robert O. Neorealism and Its Critics. 1986. New York: Columbia University Press.
    Kich, H. W. A History of Prussia. 1993. New York: Barnes & Noble Books.
    Kindleberger, Charles P. The International Economic Order: Essays on Financial Crisis and International Public Goods. 1988. Cambridge: MIT Press.
    _____. The World in Depression, 1929-1939. 1973. London: Allen Lane.
    Kissinger, Henry. The World Restored: Metternich, Castlereagh, and the Problems of Peace, 1812-22. 1973. Boston: Houghton Mifflin.
    _____. The Troubled Partnership: A Reappraisal of the Atlantic Alliance. 1965. New York: McGraw Hill.
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    Landes, David. The Unbound Prometheus: Technical Change and Industrial Development in Western Europe from 1750 to the Present. 2003. New York: Cambridge University Press.
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    Lijphart, Arend. Democracies: Patterns of Majoritarian and Consensus in Twenty-one Countries. 1984. Ithaca: Yale University Press.
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    Linz, Juan J. The Failure of Presidential Democracy. 1994.D.C: Johns Hopkins University Press.
    Love, Robert W. Jr. History of the U.S. Navy Volume One: 1775-1941. 1992. Harrisburg: Stackpole Books.
    Macleod, Christine. Inventing the Industrial Revolution: the English Patent System, 1660-1800. 1988. Cambridge University Press.
    Macmillan, Margret. Peacemakers: The Paris Peace Conference of 1919 and Its Attempt to End War. 1993. London: John Murray Publish Co.
    Mandelbaum, Michael. The Meaning of Sports. 2004. New York: Public Affairs.
    Mann, James. The Rise of Vulcans, The Bush’s War Cabinets. 2004. New York: Viking.
    Mearsheimer, John. The Tragedy of Great Power Politics. 2001. New York: W.W. Norton & Company.
    Mee, Charles L. The Marshall Plan: The Launching of the Pax Americana. 1984. New York: Simon and Schuster.
    Mitchell, B.R. British Historical Statistics. 1988. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.
    _____. International Historical Statistics: The Americas, 1785-1988. 1983. New York: Stockton Press.
    Modelski, George. Long Cycle in World Politics. 1987. Seattle: Washington University Press.
    Mokyr, Joel. The Lever of Riches: Technological Creativity and Economic Progress. 1992. New York: Oxford University Press.
    Morgan, H. Wayne. America`s Road to Empire: The War with Spain and Overseas Expansion. 1965. New York: Wiley.
    Morgenthau, Hans J. Politics among Nations: the Struggle for Power and Peace. 1985. New York: McGraw-Hill.
    Muldoon, James. Empire and Order: the Concept of Empire, 800-1800. 1999. New York: St. Martin`s Press.
    Muller, Jerry Z. Adam Smith in His Time and Ours: Designing the Decent Society. 1995. Princeton: Princeton University Press.
    Nathan, Andrew, and Robert Ross. The Great Wall and the Empty Fortress: China`s Search for Security. 1997. New York: W. W. Norton & Company.
    Nicolson, Adam. Seize the Fire: Heroism, Duty, and the Battle of Trafalgar. 2005. New York: Harper Collins.
    North, Douglass. The Rise of the Western World: A New Economic History. 1976. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.
    Nye, Joseph S. Jr. Bound to Lead: the Changing Nature of American Power. 1990. New York: Basic Books.
    _____. Soft Power: the Means to Success in World Politics. 2004. New York: Public Affairs.
    _____. The Paradox of American Power: Why the World`s Only Superpower Can`t Go It Alone. 2002. Oxford: Oxford University Press.
    _____. The World Depression. 1981. Cambridge: MIT Press.
    Oliver, John W. History of American Technology. 1956. New York: Ronald Press Co.
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    Organski, A. F. K. and Jacek Kugler. The War Ledger. 1980. Chicago: University of Chicago Press.
    Perkins, Bradford. The Great Rapprochement: England and the United States, 1895-1914. 1968. New York: Atheneum.
    Ramo, Joshua Cooper. The Beijing Consensus. 2004. UK: The Foreign Policy Centre.
    Reiners, Ludwig. Frederick the Great: A Biography. 1960. New York: Putnam.
    Rodgers, N.A.M. The Command of the Ocean: A Naval History of Britain, 1649-1815. 2004. London: Allen Lane.
    Rosenthal, Joel H. Righteous Realists. 1991. Louisiana: Louisiana State University Press.
    Rothgeb, John M. Jr. Defining Power: Influence and Force in the Contemporary International System. 1993. New York: St. Martin`s Press.
    Rothbard, Murray Newton. America’s Great Depression. 1963. Princeton: Van Nostrand.
    Said, Edward W. Orientalism. 1978. London: Routledge & Kegan Paul.
    Samson, Jane. The British Empire. 2001. Oxford: Oxford University Press.
    Sheiber, Harry N. United State’s Economic History: Selecting Readings. 1964. New York: Alfred A. Knopf.
    Somervell, D. C. A Study of History: Abridgement of Vols. I-VI, with a preface by Toynbee. 1946. Oxford: Oxford University Press.
    Starr, Larry. American Popular Music: From Minstrelsy to MTV. 2003. Oxford: Oxford University Press.
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    Teng, Jimmy. A Relativist Development Theory: Geopolitics, Economy and State Survival. 2004. PhD dissertation.
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    Watts, Steven. The People’s Tycoon: Henry Ford and the American Century 2005. New York: Knopf.
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    2. 期刊論文
    Alt, James E., Randall L. Calvert, and Brian D. Humes. “Reputation and Hegemonic Stability: A Game-Theoretic Analysis,” The American Political Science Review. Vol.82, No.2 (June, 1988). pp. 445-466.
    Chung Jae-ho. “Vertical Support, Horizontal Linkages, and Regional Disparities in China: Typology, Incentive Structure, and Operational Logic,” Issues and Studies. Vol. 37, No.4 (2001). pp. 121-148.
    Clarke, E. M. “Age of Steel,” Dublin Review. (July, 1897). pp. 54-55.
    Ford, Henry J. “The Ethics of Empire,” Political Science Quarterly. Vol.22, No.3 (September, 1907). pp. 498-505.
    Goldstein, Joshua S. “Long Waves in War, Production, Prices and Wages: New Empirical Evidences,” The Journal of Conflict Resolution. Vol. 31, No. 4 (December, 1987). pp. 573-600.
    _____. “Kondratieff Waves as War Cycles,” International Studies Quarterly. Vol. 29, No. 4 (December, 1985). pp. 411-444.
    _____. “The Possibility of Cycles in International Relations,” International Studies Quarterly. Vol. 35, No. 4 (December, 1991). pp. 477-480.
    Grunberg, Isabelle. “Exploring the "Myth" of Hegemonic Stability”, International Organization. Vol. 44, No. 4 (Autumn, 1990). pp. 431-477.
    Johnston, Alastair Iain “Is China a Status Quo Power?” International Security. vol. 27, No.2 (Spring, 2003). pp. 5-56.
    Kagan, Robert. “Power and Weakness,” Policy Review. Vol.113, No.3 (June-July 2002).
    Kindleberger, Charles P. “Dominance and Leadership in the International Economy; Exploitation, Public Goods and Free Riders,” International Studies Quarterly. Vol. 25, No.2 (June, 1981). pp. 242-254.
    Krasner, Stephen. “State Power and the Structure of International Economy,” World Politics. Vol. 28, No. 3 (April, 1976). pp. 317-347.
    Kruthammer, Charles. “The Unipolar Moment,” Foreign Affairs, Vol.70, No.1 (1990-91), pp. 23-33.
    Kurlanzick, Josh. “China`s Charm: Implications for China`s Soft Power,” Carnegie Endowment Policy Brief, No. 47, (June 2006).
    Layne, Cristopher. “The Unipolar Illusions: Why New Great Powers Will Rise,” International Security, Vol.17, No.4 (winter, 1993), pp. 5-51.
    MacLeod, Christine, "The European origins of British technological predominance," in L. Prados de la Escosura Ed. Exceptionalism and Industrialization: Britain and its European Rivals, 1688-1815. 2004. Cambridge University Press.
    Maoz, Zeev. “Peace by Empire? Conflict Outcomes and International Stability, 1816-1976,” Journal of Peace Research. Vol. 21, No.3 (September, 1984). pp. 227-241.
    Milner, Helen and Jack Snyder. “Lost Hegemony?” International Organization. Vol. 42, No. 4 (Autumn, 1988). pp. 749-750.
    Nye, Joseph S. Jr., and William A. Owens. “America’s Information Edge,” Foreign Affairs. March/April, 1996.
    Nye, Joseph S. Jr. “Power and Interdependence in the Information Age,” Foreign Affairs. Sep/Oct., 1998.
    _____. “Limits of American Power,” Political Science Quarterly. Winter 2002/2003.
    _____. “Redefining the National Interest,” Foreign Affairs. July/August, 1999.
    _____. “Soft Power,” Foreign Policy. Fall, 1990.
    _____. “The Changing Nature of World Power,” Political Science Quarterly. Vol. 105, No. 2 (Summer, 1990). pp. 177-192.
    _____. “The Decline of America’s Soft Power,” Foreign Affairs. May/June, 2004.
    _____. “The Transformation of World Power,” Dialogue. No. 4, 1990.
    O’brien, Patrick K. “The Political Economy of British Taxation: 1660-1815,” The Economic History Review, New Series. Vol.41, No.1 (Feb, 1988). pp. 1-32.
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    Ross, Robert. “The Geography of the Peace: East Asia in the Twenty First Century,” International Security, Vol.23, No.4 (winter, 1999), pp. 81-118.
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    Spiezio, Edward K. “British Hegemony and Major Power War, 1815-1939: An Empirical Test of Gilpin`s Model of Hegemonic Governance,” International Studies Quarterly. Vol.34, No.4 (June, 1990). pp. 165~181.
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    3. 新聞
    Friedman,Thomas. “A Million Manhattan Projects,” New York Times, May 24, 2006.
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    Nye, Joseph S. Jr. “Hard Power and Soft Power,” The Boston Globe. August 6, 1999.
    _______."In Fighting Terrorism, Bush Has Forgotten to Use Soft Power," Daily Star (Beirut), October 25, 2005.
    _______."The Rise of China`s Soft Power," Wall Street Journal Asia. December, 29, 2005.
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    4. 網路
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    George Washington’s Farewell Address, 1796.
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    History of Basketball. http://www.history-of-basketball.com/history.htm
    History of Japanese Baseball. http://www.niseibaseball.com/html%20articles/Baseball%20in%20Japan/BaseballJapan.html
    History of Volleyball. http://www.volleycountry.com/en/history/main.php
    http://faculty.ed.uiuc.edu/westbury/Paradigm/Vaughan.html
    http://www.earlyamerica.com/earlyamerica/milestones/farewell/text.html
    International Hockey Federation. http://www.fihockey.org/
    Lord’s Home of Crickets. http://www.lords.org/
    Merrian-webster Dictionary. http://www.m-w.com/dictionary/empire
    Mills, T. F. “Regiments of the British Army: an Introductory Overview,” http://www.regiments.org/regiments/uk/lists/bargts.htm
    The Goldman Sachs Group, “Global Economics Paper No. 99: Dreaming with BRICs: The Path to 2050,” 2003/10, http://www2.goldmansachs.com/insight/research/reports/99.pdf
    Vaughan, John. “Thomas Rickman’s essay on Gothic architecture and nineteenth century architectural education,” Paradigm. No 7. (December, 1991).
    Wikipedia. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Empire
    Wikisource. http://en.wikisource.org/wiki/Act_of_Union_1707
    _____. http://en.wikisource.org/wiki/Bill_of_Rights_1689
    Houston Rockets.http://www.nba.com/rockets/tickets/Splash_Page-188177-359.html 。
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