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    題名: 意見的感知與表達：以沈默螺旋和多數無知角度觀察意見氣候
    作者: 曾如瑩
    貢獻者: 金溥聰
    曾如瑩
    關鍵詞: 意見氣候
    多數無知
    投射
    看鏡效果
    沈默螺旋
    民意
    總統選舉
    日期: 2003
    上傳時間: 2009-09-17 15:53:00 (UTC+8)
    摘要:   本研究在研究期間正好適逢2004年總統大選，藉此選舉，以民意調查瞭解當人們使用錯誤資訊時，很容易產生誤知意見氣候的情形，形成不同的感知意見形式，例如多數無知和看鏡效果等。除此之外本研究也希望再次探究沈默螺旋是否在選舉議題上發酵。

      研究者選取「總統選舉的投票取向」、「選民對前總統李登輝的喜好程度」、「是否贊成320廢票運動」以及「是否贊成320公投和大選一起舉辦」四項議題作為初探民意資訊性和規範性影響的觀察議題。

    Price & Oshagan(1995)從社會心理學觀點指出，感知意見氣候對人們有兩種功能：規範性(normative)和資訊性(informational)功能。

    從社會總體層次來說，Price & Oshagan(1995)和Noelle-Neumann認為民意具有整合規範功能，因為害怕孤立或者想得到社會認可的肯定，人會不斷感知意見和瞭解主流意見為何，以確定自己符合主流價值。如果認為自己的意見和主流意見不同，會趨於沈默，反之則樂於發言，這種現象後來稱為沈默螺旋(Spiral of silence)，此為民意規範效果。

    然而Price & Oshagan(1995)強調，並不是每項議題都有清楚的主流意見，特別在團體對於何謂主流意見的紛歧情形下，對民意的不確定程度，使得民意的資訊功能發揮作用。為了瞭解當前的混亂的意見趨勢，人會藉著不斷溝通和蒐集資訊，以瞭解社會環境和感知他人意見，作為形成自己意見的參考，此稱為民意的資訊性功能，像是多數無知、看鏡效果，。

    本文藉著分析分析在「總統選舉的投票取向」、「選民對前總統李登輝的喜好程度」、「是否贊成320廢票運動」以及「是否贊成320公投和大選一起舉辦」四項議題的瞭解民意規範性和資訊性效果，如何在這些議題中運作。

    研究發現選民看鏡效果、教育程度高低會影響選民對於議題的意見，此外，選民的意見強度、對議題關心程度、年齡都會影響其意見表達意願，並部分支持沈默螺旋假設。
    參考文獻: 一、中文書目
    王湘茹(1991)。《沈默的螺旋理論實證研究---以週休二日制為例》。
    私立輔仁大學大眾傳播研究所碩士論文。
    王嵩音(2003年11月)。〈第三人效果與表達意願--- 以2002年台北市市長選舉為例〉，「2002年台灣選舉欲民主化調查國際學術研討會」論文。台北，木柵。
    林淑敏(1991)。《沈默的螺旋理論實證研究》。私立輔仁大學大眾傳播研究所碩士論文。
    林麗雯(1992)。《沈默的螺旋理論實證研究---以『國中畢業生自願就學方案』之議題為例》。私立輔仁大學大眾傳播研究所碩士論文。
    周玫楓(2002)。《以沈默螺旋理論探討不同政治立場選民之表達意願因素：以九十年台北縣縣長為例》。國立南華大學傳播管理研究所碩士。
    翁秀琪(1998)。大眾傳播理論與實證。台北：三民書局。
    翁秀琪(1997)。〈選民意見的形成---以民國八十二年台北縣長選舉為例檢驗『沈默螺旋理論』〉，《新聞學研究》，55:160-182。
    孫秀蕙(1994)。《民意理論中的死硬派之研究—以『興建核四』議題為例》。國科會論文研究報告。
    諾爾紐曼(1994)。民意---沈默螺旋的發現之旅（Öffentliche Meinung: die Entdeckung der Schweigespirale.）（翁秀琪等譯）。台北：遠流。 （原作1991年出版）
    二、英文書目
    Asch, S. E. (1951). Effects of group pressure upon the modification and distortion of judgment. In D.Cartwright and A. Zander(2nd Eds), Group Dynamics Research and Theory(pp189-200). New York: Harper &Row Publishers.
    Breed, Warren, & Ktsanes, Thomas (1961). Pluralistic ignorance in the process of opinion formation. Public Opinion Quarterly, 25, 382-392.
    Dawes, R. M. (1989). Statistical criteria for establishing truly false consensus effect, Journal of Experimental social psychology, 25,1-17.
    Festinger, L. (1957) A theory of cognitive dissonance. Stanford Calif.: Stanford University Press.
    Field M. James, & Schuman, Howard (1976). Public beliefs about the beliefs of the public. Public Opinion Quarterly, 40, 427-448.
    Jeffres, L. W et al. (1999). Spiral of silence: opinion when the climate of opinion is unambiguous. Political Communication, 16, 115-131.
    Glynn, Carroll J. (1987). The communication of public opinion. Journalism Quarterly, 64, 688-697.
    Glynn, Carroll J.(1989). Perception of other’s opinion as a component of public opinion. Social Science Research, 18, 53-69.
    Glynn, Carroll J. & McLeod, Jack M. (1982). Public opinion communication processes and voting decisions. In Michael Burgoon (Ed.), Communication Yearbook 6 (pp.759-774). Beverly Hills: Sage
    Glynn, Carroll J. & McLeod, Jack M. (1984). Public opinion du jour: an examination of the spiral silence. Public Opinion Quarterly, 48, 731-740
    Glynn, Carroll J. & McLeod, Jack M. (1985). Implications of the spiral of silence theory for communication and public opinion research. In Keith R.Sanders, L.L. Kaid, & Dan
    Nimmo (Eds.), Political Communication Yearbook (pp.43-68). Carbondale: South Illinois University Press.
    Glynn, Carroll J., Ostman, Ronald E. & Mcdonald, Daniel G. (1995). Opinions perception, and social reality. In Theodore L. Glasser and Charles T. Salmon (Eds), Public opinion and the communication of consent (PP.249-277). New York: Guilford press.
    Kruflanski, A.W. & Mayseless, O.(1987) Motivational effect in the school comparison of opinion. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 53, 834-53.
    Lasorsa, L. Dominic (1991). Polotical Outspokenness : working Against the spiral of silence. Journalism Quarterly, 68(1/2), 131-140.
    MacDonald, Daniel G., Glynn, Carroll J., Kim, Sei-Hill & Ostman, Ronald E. (2001). The spiral of silence in the 1948 Presidential election. Communication Research, 28(2), 139-155.
    Major, Ann Marie (2000). Correlates of accuracy and inaccuracy in the perception of the climate of opinion for four environmental issues. Journalism & Mass Communication Quarterly, 77(2), 223-242.
    Moscovici, S.(1985). Social influence and conformity. In G.Lindzey & E.Aronson (3nd Eds), The Handbook of Social Psychology(pp.347-412). New York:Random House.
    Moscovici, S.(1991). Silent Majority and loud minorities. In J. A. Anderson(Eds.), Communication Yearbook1(pp.298-308). Newbury park, CA:SAGE.Mugny, G. & Perez, J.A. (1991). The social psychology of minority influence. Cambridge England: Cambridge University Press.
    Mutz, Diana C. & Soss, Joe (1997). Reading public opinion :the influence of news coverage on perception of public sentiment. Public Opinion Quarterly, 61, 431-451.
    Neuwirth, Kurt (2000). Testing the spiral of silence model: the case of mexico. International Journal of Public Opinion Research, 12(2), 138-159.
    Noelle-Neumann, Elizabeth (1974). The spiral of silence a theory of public opinion.Journal of Communication, 24(2), 43-51.
    Noelle-Neumann, Elizabeth (1977). Turbulences in the climate of opinion：methodological application. Journal of Communication, 24, 43-51.
    Noelle-Neumann, Elizabeth (1979). Public opinion and the classical tradition :a re-evaluation. Public Opinion Quarterly, 43(2), 143-156.
    Noelle-Neumann, Elizabeth (1984). The spiral of silence public opinion- our social skin. Chicago: the University of Chicago press.
    Noelle-Neumann, Elizabeth (1991). the theory of public opinion the concept of the spiral of silence. In James A. Anderson, (Ed.) Communication Yearbook 14 (pp.256-278). Newbury Park:Sage.
    O’Gorman, Hubert J. (1975). Pluralistic ignorance white estimates of white support for racial segregation. The Public Opinion Quarterly, 39(3), 313-330.
    O’Gorman Hubert J., & Garry, Stephen L. (1976). Pluralistic ignorance:a replication and extension. Public Opinion Quarterly, 40(4), 449-458.
    O’Gorman Hubert (1979). White & black perceprtions of racial value. Public Opinion Quarterly, 43(1), 48-59.
    O’Gorman, Hubert J. (1986). The discovery of pluralistic ignorance : an ironic Lesson. Journal of History of the Behavioral Sciences, 22,333-347.
    Papastamou. & Mugny G. (1985). Rigidity and minority influence: the influence of the social in social influence. In Moscovici S. et la (Eds), Perspectives on minority influence(pp.113-136). New York: Cambridge University Press.
    Price, Vincent & Allen, Scott(1990). Opinion spirals, silent and otherwise applying small-group research to public opinion phenomena. Communication Research, 17 (3), 369-392.
    Price, Vincent & Oshagan, Hatg(1995). Social-psychological perspectives on public opinion. In Theodore L. Glasser and Charles T. Salmon (Eds), Public opinion and the communication of consent (PP.177-126). New York: Guilford press.Salmon, Charles T. & Oshagan, Hatg (1990). Community size, perceptions of Majority opinion, and opinion expression. In Larissa A. Grunig & James E. Grunig(Eds.), Public Relations Research Annual v2 (pp.157-172). New Jersey:Lawrence Erlbaum Associates Inc,.
    Salmon, Charles T. & Neuwirth, Kurt (1990). Perception of opinion “climates” and willingness to discuss the issue of abortion. Journalism Quarterly, 67(3), 567-577.
    Shmair Jacbo, (1993). Pluralistic ignorance revisited: perception of opinion distributions in Israel. International Journal of Public Opinion Research, 5(1), 22-39.
    Shmair Jacbo, & Shmair, Maichal (2000). The anatomy of public. United States: The university of Michigan press.
    Shmair Jacbo, & Shmair, Maichal (1997). Pluralistic ignorance across issue and over time :information cues and biases. Public Opinion Quarterly, 61, 227-260.
    Smith, Don D. (1968). Cognitive Consistency and the perception of others` opinions. Public Opinion Quarterly, 32(1), 1-15.
    Stouffer, S.A., (1949). The American soldier: Adjustment during army life. Princeton: Princeton University Press.
    Taifel, H. (1982). Social psychology of intergroup relations. Annual Review of Psychology, 33, 1-39.
    Taylor, D. Garth (1982). Pluralistic ignorance and the spiral of silence: a formal analysis. Public Opinion Quarterly, 46, 311-335.
    Turner, J.C. (1985). Social categorization and the self concept: a social cognitive theory of group behavior. In E.J.Lawler(Ed), Advances in Group Processes v2,(pp77-122). Greenwich, CT:JAI Press.
    Rimmer, Tonny & Howard, Mark (1990). Pluralistic ignorance and the spiral of silence :the test of the role of the mass media in the spiral of silence hypothesis. Mass Communication Research, 17(1-2), 47-56.
    描述: 碩士
    國立政治大學
    新聞研究所
    90451019
    92
    資料來源: http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0904510191
    資料類型: thesis
    顯示於類別:[新聞學系] 學位論文

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