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    政大機構典藏 > 傳播學院 > 新聞學系 > 學位論文 >  Item 140.119/33247
    Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: https://nccur.lib.nccu.edu.tw/handle/140.119/33247


    Title: 意見的感知與表達:以沈默螺旋和多數無知角度觀察意見氣候
    Authors: 曾如瑩
    Contributors: 金溥聰
    曾如瑩
    Keywords: 意見氣候
    多數無知
    投射
    看鏡效果
    沈默螺旋
    民意
    總統選舉
    Date: 2003
    Issue Date: 2009-09-17 15:53:00 (UTC+8)
    Abstract:   本研究在研究期間正好適逢2004年總統大選,藉此選舉,以民意調查瞭解當人們使用錯誤資訊時,很容易產生誤知意見氣候的情形,形成不同的感知意見形式,例如多數無知和看鏡效果等。除此之外本研究也希望再次探究沈默螺旋是否在選舉議題上發酵。

      研究者選取「總統選舉的投票取向」、「選民對前總統李登輝的喜好程度」、「是否贊成320廢票運動」以及「是否贊成320公投和大選一起舉辦」四項議題作為初探民意資訊性和規範性影響的觀察議題。

    Price & Oshagan(1995)從社會心理學觀點指出,感知意見氣候對人們有兩種功能:規範性(normative)和資訊性(informational)功能。

    從社會總體層次來說,Price & Oshagan(1995)和Noelle-Neumann認為民意具有整合規範功能,因為害怕孤立或者想得到社會認可的肯定,人會不斷感知意見和瞭解主流意見為何,以確定自己符合主流價值。如果認為自己的意見和主流意見不同,會趨於沈默,反之則樂於發言,這種現象後來稱為沈默螺旋(Spiral of silence),此為民意規範效果。

    然而Price & Oshagan(1995)強調,並不是每項議題都有清楚的主流意見,特別在團體對於何謂主流意見的紛歧情形下,對民意的不確定程度,使得民意的資訊功能發揮作用。為了瞭解當前的混亂的意見趨勢,人會藉著不斷溝通和蒐集資訊,以瞭解社會環境和感知他人意見,作為形成自己意見的參考,此稱為民意的資訊性功能,像是多數無知、看鏡效果,。

    本文藉著分析分析在「總統選舉的投票取向」、「選民對前總統李登輝的喜好程度」、「是否贊成320廢票運動」以及「是否贊成320公投和大選一起舉辦」四項議題的瞭解民意規範性和資訊性效果,如何在這些議題中運作。

    研究發現選民看鏡效果、教育程度高低會影響選民對於議題的意見,此外,選民的意見強度、對議題關心程度、年齡都會影響其意見表達意願,並部分支持沈默螺旋假設。
    Reference: 一、中文書目
    王湘茹(1991)。《沈默的螺旋理論實證研究---以週休二日制為例》。
    私立輔仁大學大眾傳播研究所碩士論文。
    王嵩音(2003年11月)。〈第三人效果與表達意願--- 以2002年台北市市長選舉為例〉,「2002年台灣選舉欲民主化調查國際學術研討會」論文。台北,木柵。
    林淑敏(1991)。《沈默的螺旋理論實證研究》。私立輔仁大學大眾傳播研究所碩士論文。
    林麗雯(1992)。《沈默的螺旋理論實證研究---以『國中畢業生自願就學方案』之議題為例》。私立輔仁大學大眾傳播研究所碩士論文。
    周玫楓(2002)。《以沈默螺旋理論探討不同政治立場選民之表達意願因素:以九十年台北縣縣長為例》。國立南華大學傳播管理研究所碩士。
    翁秀琪(1998)。大眾傳播理論與實證。台北:三民書局。
    翁秀琪(1997)。〈選民意見的形成---以民國八十二年台北縣長選舉為例檢驗『沈默螺旋理論』〉,《新聞學研究》,55:160-182。
    孫秀蕙(1994)。《民意理論中的死硬派之研究—以『興建核四』議題為例》。國科會論文研究報告。
    諾爾紐曼(1994)。民意---沈默螺旋的發現之旅(Öffentliche Meinung: die Entdeckung der Schweigespirale.)(翁秀琪等譯)。台北:遠流。 (原作1991年出版)
    二、英文書目
    Asch, S. E. (1951). Effects of group pressure upon the modification and distortion of judgment. In D.Cartwright and A. Zander(2nd Eds), Group Dynamics Research and Theory(pp189-200). New York: Harper &Row Publishers.
    Breed, Warren, & Ktsanes, Thomas (1961). Pluralistic ignorance in the process of opinion formation. Public Opinion Quarterly, 25, 382-392.
    Dawes, R. M. (1989). Statistical criteria for establishing truly false consensus effect, Journal of Experimental social psychology, 25,1-17.
    Festinger, L. (1957) A theory of cognitive dissonance. Stanford Calif.: Stanford University Press.
    Field M. James, & Schuman, Howard (1976). Public beliefs about the beliefs of the public. Public Opinion Quarterly, 40, 427-448.
    Jeffres, L. W et al. (1999). Spiral of silence: opinion when the climate of opinion is unambiguous. Political Communication, 16, 115-131.
    Glynn, Carroll J. (1987). The communication of public opinion. Journalism Quarterly, 64, 688-697.
    Glynn, Carroll J.(1989). Perception of other’s opinion as a component of public opinion. Social Science Research, 18, 53-69.
    Glynn, Carroll J. & McLeod, Jack M. (1982). Public opinion communication processes and voting decisions. In Michael Burgoon (Ed.), Communication Yearbook 6 (pp.759-774). Beverly Hills: Sage
    Glynn, Carroll J. & McLeod, Jack M. (1984). Public opinion du jour: an examination of the spiral silence. Public Opinion Quarterly, 48, 731-740
    Glynn, Carroll J. & McLeod, Jack M. (1985). Implications of the spiral of silence theory for communication and public opinion research. In Keith R.Sanders, L.L. Kaid, & Dan
    Nimmo (Eds.), Political Communication Yearbook (pp.43-68). Carbondale: South Illinois University Press.
    Glynn, Carroll J., Ostman, Ronald E. & Mcdonald, Daniel G. (1995). Opinions perception, and social reality. In Theodore L. Glasser and Charles T. Salmon (Eds), Public opinion and the communication of consent (PP.249-277). New York: Guilford press.
    Kruflanski, A.W. & Mayseless, O.(1987) Motivational effect in the school comparison of opinion. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 53, 834-53.
    Lasorsa, L. Dominic (1991). Polotical Outspokenness : working Against the spiral of silence. Journalism Quarterly, 68(1/2), 131-140.
    MacDonald, Daniel G., Glynn, Carroll J., Kim, Sei-Hill & Ostman, Ronald E. (2001). The spiral of silence in the 1948 Presidential election. Communication Research, 28(2), 139-155.
    Major, Ann Marie (2000). Correlates of accuracy and inaccuracy in the perception of the climate of opinion for four environmental issues. Journalism & Mass Communication Quarterly, 77(2), 223-242.
    Moscovici, S.(1985). Social influence and conformity. In G.Lindzey & E.Aronson (3nd Eds), The Handbook of Social Psychology(pp.347-412). New York:Random House.
    Moscovici, S.(1991). Silent Majority and loud minorities. In J. A. Anderson(Eds.), Communication Yearbook1(pp.298-308). Newbury park, CA:SAGE.Mugny, G. & Perez, J.A. (1991). The social psychology of minority influence. Cambridge England: Cambridge University Press.
    Mutz, Diana C. & Soss, Joe (1997). Reading public opinion :the influence of news coverage on perception of public sentiment. Public Opinion Quarterly, 61, 431-451.
    Neuwirth, Kurt (2000). Testing the spiral of silence model: the case of mexico. International Journal of Public Opinion Research, 12(2), 138-159.
    Noelle-Neumann, Elizabeth (1974). The spiral of silence a theory of public opinion.Journal of Communication, 24(2), 43-51.
    Noelle-Neumann, Elizabeth (1977). Turbulences in the climate of opinion:methodological application. Journal of Communication, 24, 43-51.
    Noelle-Neumann, Elizabeth (1979). Public opinion and the classical tradition :a re-evaluation. Public Opinion Quarterly, 43(2), 143-156.
    Noelle-Neumann, Elizabeth (1984). The spiral of silence public opinion- our social skin. Chicago: the University of Chicago press.
    Noelle-Neumann, Elizabeth (1991). the theory of public opinion the concept of the spiral of silence. In James A. Anderson, (Ed.) Communication Yearbook 14 (pp.256-278). Newbury Park:Sage.
    O’Gorman, Hubert J. (1975). Pluralistic ignorance white estimates of white support for racial segregation. The Public Opinion Quarterly, 39(3), 313-330.
    O’Gorman Hubert J., & Garry, Stephen L. (1976). Pluralistic ignorance:a replication and extension. Public Opinion Quarterly, 40(4), 449-458.
    O’Gorman Hubert (1979). White & black perceprtions of racial value. Public Opinion Quarterly, 43(1), 48-59.
    O’Gorman, Hubert J. (1986). The discovery of pluralistic ignorance : an ironic Lesson. Journal of History of the Behavioral Sciences, 22,333-347.
    Papastamou. & Mugny G. (1985). Rigidity and minority influence: the influence of the social in social influence. In Moscovici S. et la (Eds), Perspectives on minority influence(pp.113-136). New York: Cambridge University Press.
    Price, Vincent & Allen, Scott(1990). Opinion spirals, silent and otherwise applying small-group research to public opinion phenomena. Communication Research, 17 (3), 369-392.
    Price, Vincent & Oshagan, Hatg(1995). Social-psychological perspectives on public opinion. In Theodore L. Glasser and Charles T. Salmon (Eds), Public opinion and the communication of consent (PP.177-126). New York: Guilford press.Salmon, Charles T. & Oshagan, Hatg (1990). Community size, perceptions of Majority opinion, and opinion expression. In Larissa A. Grunig & James E. Grunig(Eds.), Public Relations Research Annual v2 (pp.157-172). New Jersey:Lawrence Erlbaum Associates Inc,.
    Salmon, Charles T. & Neuwirth, Kurt (1990). Perception of opinion “climates” and willingness to discuss the issue of abortion. Journalism Quarterly, 67(3), 567-577.
    Shmair Jacbo, (1993). Pluralistic ignorance revisited: perception of opinion distributions in Israel. International Journal of Public Opinion Research, 5(1), 22-39.
    Shmair Jacbo, & Shmair, Maichal (2000). The anatomy of public. United States: The university of Michigan press.
    Shmair Jacbo, & Shmair, Maichal (1997). Pluralistic ignorance across issue and over time :information cues and biases. Public Opinion Quarterly, 61, 227-260.
    Smith, Don D. (1968). Cognitive Consistency and the perception of others` opinions. Public Opinion Quarterly, 32(1), 1-15.
    Stouffer, S.A., (1949). The American soldier: Adjustment during army life. Princeton: Princeton University Press.
    Taifel, H. (1982). Social psychology of intergroup relations. Annual Review of Psychology, 33, 1-39.
    Taylor, D. Garth (1982). Pluralistic ignorance and the spiral of silence: a formal analysis. Public Opinion Quarterly, 46, 311-335.
    Turner, J.C. (1985). Social categorization and the self concept: a social cognitive theory of group behavior. In E.J.Lawler(Ed), Advances in Group Processes v2,(pp77-122). Greenwich, CT:JAI Press.
    Rimmer, Tonny & Howard, Mark (1990). Pluralistic ignorance and the spiral of silence :the test of the role of the mass media in the spiral of silence hypothesis. Mass Communication Research, 17(1-2), 47-56.
    Description: 碩士
    國立政治大學
    新聞研究所
    90451019
    92
    Source URI: http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0904510191
    Data Type: thesis
    Appears in Collections:[新聞學系] 學位論文

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