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    題名: 預測競賽, 解釋預測機構的行為
    Explaining forecasters` behavior: sequential forecast contest
    作者: 黃柏鈞
    Huang, Po Chun
    貢獻者: 莊委桐
    Juang, Wei Torng
    黃柏鈞
    Huang, Po Chun
    關鍵詞: 預測競賽
    群聚
    反群聚
    Forecast Contest
    Herding
    Abti-Herding
    日期: 2008
    上傳時間: 2009-09-14 13:31:07 (UTC+8)
    摘要: Paradoxically, pepole avoid being totally the same with others to keep their uniquness but follow the fads to avoid isolation. We construct a simple model under this concept to explain the empirical findings of forecasters’ behavior such as old forecasters are more radical and late forecasters tend to anti-herd. We show that forecasters` forecasts are not necessarilly unbiased when they consider
    the benefit of making correct forecasts and the cost of being wrong. Furthermore, we extended our model and show that when uninformed agent cannot differentiate which informed agents is better, she chooses mean of the two experts` opinions when the difference of the opinions is small but choose randomly from the two experts` opinions when the difference is big.
    參考文獻: Ashiya, M., Doi, T., (2001). Herd behavior of Japanese economists, Journal of Economic Behavior and Organization, 46, 343-346.
    Avery, C.N., Chevalier, J.A., (1999). Herding over the career. Economics Letters, 63, 327-333.
    Bernhardt, D., Campello, M., Kutsoati, E., (2006). Who herds?, Journal of Financial Economics, 80, 657-675.
    Chevalier, J., Ellison, G., (1999). Career concerns of mutual fund managers, Quarterly Journal of Economics 114, 389-432.
    Couzin, I. D., Krause, J., Franks, N. R. Levin, S. A., (2005). Effective leadership and decision-making in animal groups on the move, Nature, 433, 513-516.
    Ehrbeck,T.,Waldmann, R., (1996). Why are professional forecasters biased? Agency versus behavioral explanations, Quarterly Journal of Economics, 111, 21-40.
    Hong, H., Kubik, J.D., Solomon, A., (2000). Security analysts` career concerns and herding of earning forecasts, RAND Journal of Economics, 31, 121-144.
    Kahneman, D., Lovallo, D., (1993). Timid Choices and Bold Forecasts: A Cognitive Perspective on Risk Taking, Management Science, 39, 17-31.
    Kahneman, D., (1973). Attention and Effort. Prentice-Hall, Englewood Cliffs, NJ.
    Keynes, J. M., (1936). The General Theory of Employment, Interest and Money, Macmillan, London.
    Lamont, O., (2002). Macroeconomic forecasts and microeconomic forecasters, Journal of Economic Behavior and Organization, 48, 265-280.
    Laster, D., Bennett, P., Geoum, I.S., (1999). Rational bias in macroeconomic forecasts, Quarterly Journal of Economics, 114, 29-318.
    Malabre, A.L., (1995), Lost Prophets, Harvard Business School Press.
    Ottaviani, M., Sorensen, P.N., (2006). The strategy of professional forecasting, Journal of Financial Economics, 81, 441-466.
    Tetlock, P. E. (2005). Expert Political Judgment: How Good Is It? How Can We Know? Princeton University Press.
    Zarnowitz, V., Lambros, L.A., (1987). Consensus and uncertainty in economic predictions, Journal of Political Economy, 95, 591-621.
    描述: 碩士
    國立政治大學
    經濟研究所
    96258018
    97
    資料來源: http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0096258018
    資料類型: thesis
    顯示於類別:[經濟學系] 學位論文

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