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    题名: 中國長期實質匯率之研究
    A Study on the Long-Run Real Exchange Rate in China
    作者: 郭欣宜
    贡献者: 朱美麗
    郭欣宜
    关键词: 人民幣
    實質匯率
    相對生產力
    Renminbi
    Real exchange rate
    Relative productivity
    日期: 2006
    上传时间: 2009-09-14 13:29:35 (UTC+8)
    摘要: 中國在世界貿易舞台上所扮演的角色日益重要，人民幣的均衡水準成為十分熱門的議題。本文為貿易財與非貿易財部門的相對生產力找尋新的代理變數來檢視Balassa-Samuelson效果，以解決中國物價指數因受政府控制而難以反映實際生產力的問題。此外，亦將對人民幣匯率的預期引進實證模型中，以量化分析來探討人民幣是否具有自我實現的行為。本文實證結果顯示人民幣均衡匯率與相對生產力、貿易開放程度、熱錢數目間有長期關係。貿易財與非貿易財相對生產力與熱錢數目的上升可能帶動人民幣升值；貿易開放程度則與均衡匯率呈反向關係。
    As China plays an important role in the world economy, the research on the real exchange rate in China has received a lot of attention. This study chiefly contributes to adopt a more reliable proxy different from previous studies to capture the Balassa-Samuelson effect; in addition, we formerly introduce the expectation of Renminbi into the empirical model. This paper empirically investigates the behavior of the real exchange rate in China during the period from 1980 to 2005. Particularly, we provide a single-equation in an empirical framework which takes the specific features and characteristics in China economy into account. The empirical evidence shows that the degree of openness, the volume of hot money, and the relative productivity of traded to nontraded sectors are key factors to the determination of the long-run equilibrium real exchange rate in China. Both the increases in the relative productivity and an anticipated appreciation in the real exchange rate eventually may lead to a real appreciation in the currency. In contrast, the influence for opening up to the world economy is that the real exchange rate may depreciate.
    參考文獻: Baffes, J., I. A. Elbadawi and S. A. O’Connell, 1999, “Single-Equation Estimation of the Equilibrium Real Exchange Rate” in Exchange Rate Misalignment: Concepts and Measurement for Developing Countries ed. by Lawrence E. Hinkle and Peter J. Montiel, New York: The World Bank, 405-464.
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    描述: 碩士
    國立政治大學
    經濟研究所
    94258024
    95
    資料來源: http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0094258024
    数据类型: thesis
    显示于类别:[經濟學系] 學位論文

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