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    题名: 檢視”預測”在巴斯夫公司管理流程中之應用
    Examine forecasting as a business process in BASF
    作者: 莊馥銘
    Chuang, Sandy
    贡献者: 吳文傑
    Wu, Jack
    莊馥銘
    Chuang, Sandy
    关键词: 預測
    日期: 2008
    上传时间: 2009-09-14 09:44:38 (UTC+8)
    摘要: 檢視”預測”在巴斯夫公司管理流程中之應用
    ABSTRACT

    As the competition in today’s markets for products and services becoming more and more intense, it is imperative for companies to improve their attempts to plan for the future (Smith & McIntyre, 1994). Literature reviews have shown clear linkage between forecast accuracy and the company’s bottom line. Improving the accuracy and timeliness of internal forecasts increases revenue predictability and operating margins, which are keys in today’s volatile economy.

    BASF is a chemical company founded in Germany in 1865. “Earn a premium on the cost of capital” is one of the four strategic guidelines of BASF 2015. Reliable forecast is one of the critical value drivers supporting the strategic guidelines. Effective forecasting creates value through resource optimization, inventory reduction and ultimately increase profits and directly impacting financial results.

    The paper uses the results of interviews and questionnaires conducted by a project team within BASF as the basis for analysis. Though it is not an official forecasting audit, similar approach was undertaken. Forecasting as it is used in BASF is reviewed. The findings of interviews and surveys conducted are summarized. The before and after status of forecasting in BASF are examined for comparison.

    Forecasting is an integrated system of tools, people factors and processes. From the analysis, it is found that making more investment in tools does not necessary improve forecasting performance unless the people factors are addressed and comprehensive standard operating practices (SOPs) are adopted. Usage of forecasts is as important as the generation of forecasts. Sales team involvement and increased collaboration in the generation of forecast helped as leverage for better forecasting. In addition, forecast accuracy as performance measures emphasizes task ownership and encourages better performance.

    Though various forecasts are performed in business operations, ranging from economic trend, interest and exchange rates, raw material and commodity prices, production capacity, product requirements to the company’s bottom line, but some are better forecasted centrally or globally, some regionally and some locally. There is no definite conclusion as to whether decentralized or centralized forecasts are better than the other as it is dependent on the specific forecast and its usage.

    With the merger and acquisitions activities often undertaken by companies, forecast management is an even more important task to maintain the customers and grow the sales during and after the integration of these businesses throughout the world. Regular forecasting audits should to be conducted and corrective measures be monitored for sustainable improvements.
    TABLES OF CONTENTS
    1 INTRODUCTION 1
    1.1 Research Background 1
    1.2 Purpose of the Study 3
    1.3 Literature Review 5
    1.3.1 Definition of Forecasting 5
    1.3.2 Types of Forecasting Techniques 5
    1.3.3 Other Sales Forecasting Issues 8
    1.3.4 Importance of Accurate Forecast 9
    1.3.5 Improving Forecasting Process 10
    1.3.6 Sales Force Involvement in Forecasting Process 12
    1.4 Methodology 14
    2 INTRODUCTION OF BASF SE 15
    2.1 Overview of BASF SE 15
    2.2 History of BASF SE 16
    2.3 Verbund 22
    2.3.1 The Verbund Principle 22
    2.3.2 Economic Advantages of Verbund 23
    2.3.3 The Verbund Sites 24
    2.4 BASF Products 26
    3 FORECAST IN BASF 31
    3.1 Definition and Types of Forecasting 31
    3.2 Factors Affecting Forecasting 33
    3.3 Forecasting Tools and Systems in BASF 35
    3.3.1 Price Forecasting Tools and Systems 35
    3.3.2 Sales Forecasting Tools and Systems 40
    3.3.3 Other Forecasting Tools and Systems 41
    4. FINDINGS OF INTERVIEWS AND SURVEYS 43
    4.1 Interviews 43
    4.2 Surveys 47
    4.2.1 General Section 48
    4.2.2 Developer Section 51
    4.2.3 User Section 53
    5 CONCLUSION AND SUMMARY 56
    5.1 Recommendations for Further Improvements 57
    5.2 BASF in 2009 63
    REFERENCE 65
    APPENDIX
    Appendix A Summary of Project Recommendations 69
    Appendix B Survey Questions 70
    Appendix C Story of Caprolactam Price Forecasting Tool Development 82
    Appendix D Sample Pages of On-Line Survey 84
    Appendix E Suggested Elements of Forecasting Standard Operating Practices 85
    Appendix F Project Team 86
    Appendix G BASF Forecasting Liaisons 87
    參考文獻: Reference
    Books
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    Articles
    Bolton, R. & Chase, C. (1997). Odyssey of a Forecaster, Journal of Business Forecasting Methods & Systems, 16, 1, 30-32.
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    Websites
    “J. Scott Armstrong, Principles of Forecasting”,
    http://www.futurecasts.com/Book%20review%205-2
    http://www.accel-team.com/pygmalion/
    http://www.bus.utk.edu/ivc/forecasting/forecastingreadings.html
    “Practical Forecasting”, http://www.urban.org/content/PolicyCenters/Justice/Projects/ProgramonYouthJustice/PracticalForecasting/practical_forecasting.html
    http://www.econlib.org/library/Enc/ForecastingandEconometricModels.html
    http://www.csag.uct.ac.za/imsc/presentations/monday/breakout%201/IMI-3b/IMI-3b.1%20(p%20johnston)/present/pdf
    “Types of forecasting methods”, www.bus.ucf.edu/rszymanski/ISM3530/CP2forecasting
    Institutes:
    Institute of Business Forecasting – IBF, ibf@ibfmail.org
    T. Glanville, Oxford Economic Forecasting – OEF, tglanville@oef.co.uk
    BASF Supply Chain Competency Center
    描述: 碩士
    國立政治大學
    國際經營管理碩士班(IMBA)
    90933012
    97
    資料來源: http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0090933012
    数据类型: thesis
    显示于类别:[國際經營管理英語碩士學程IMBA] 學位論文

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