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    Title: 金融業區域性併購的影響因素及波動特性
    Authors: 林美榕
    Contributors: 沈中華
    林美榕
    Keywords: 併購
    金融風暴
    共同波動
    馬可夫轉換
    M&A
    Crisis
    co-movement
    Markov Switching
    Date: 2007
    Issue Date: 2009-09-14 09:36:06 (UTC+8)
    Abstract: 在全球企業自由化及國際化的過程，金融機構的併購行為也變成大眾關注的議題，本論文第一部份，以亞洲的金融業為樣本，並且考量金融風暴對金融業併購的影響，實證結果發現，本文的5個併購假說在大部份的情況下，都被支持，而且金融風暴發生，的確可能改變跨國購併決策和影響因素之間的關係。其中，訊息成本假說中的語言及宗教二個代理變數，在金融風暴之後，他們對跨國併購決策都有較大且較顯著的影響力。第二部份，我們先探討OECD國家併購行為是否存在共同波動特性，實證結果支持 OECD 國家的購併活動具有共同波動的特性；此外，由狀態存續機率估計值發現樣本國停留在特定購併狀態的持續期間相當長，表示只要這些國家一起處於購併高峰期，則此共同購併高峰期會持續一段期間。相反的，若沒有發生共同購併高峰期，則在下一個時點出現共同購併高峰期的可能性也不高。從另一個角度解釋，亦即 OECD 國家購併潮的共同波動行為具有「長幅擺盪」(long swing) 的特質。最後，我們進一步考量歐盟金融業的併購活動和國家經濟成長率及股價報酬率二個要素的關係。實證結果發現在併購高峰期之下，不論歐盟金融業是處於併購交易的主併方或是被併方，股價報酬率都對併購活動皆具有正向影響；然而，國家的經濟成長率則會隨著歐盟金融業所處的併購主體而改變。此外，歐盟金融業的併購的共同波浪潮行為也具有「長幅擺盪」的特質。
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    Description: 博士
    國立政治大學
    金融研究所
    92352507
    96
    Source URI: http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0923525071
    Data Type: thesis
    Appears in Collections:[Department of Money and Banking] Theses

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