政大機構典藏-National Chengchi University Institutional Repository(NCCUR):Item 140.119/31222
English  |  正體中文  |  简体中文  |  Post-Print筆數 : 27 |  全文笔数/总笔数 : 113318/144297 (79%)
造访人次 : 51090270      在线人数 : 944
RC Version 6.0 © Powered By DSPACE, MIT. Enhanced by NTU Library IR team.
搜寻范围 查询小技巧：
  • 您可在西文检索词汇前后加上"双引号"，以获取较精准的检索结果
  • 若欲以作者姓名搜寻，建议至进阶搜寻限定作者字段，可获得较完整数据
    •  进阶搜寻
    政大機構典藏 > 商學院 > 金融學系 > 學位論文 >  Item 140.119/31222


    请使用永久网址来引用或连结此文件: https://nccur.lib.nccu.edu.tw/handle/140.119/31222


    题名: 供應鏈的評價：實質選擇權分析法
    Evaluation of a supply chain:a real pptions approach
    作者: 王偉弘
    Wang, Wei Hong
    贡献者: 廖四郎
    Liao, Szu Lang
    王偉弘
    Wang, Wei Hong
    关键词: 動態供應鏈
    實質選擇權
    聯合利潤
    門檻值
    隨機匯率
    外銷專案
    dynamic supply chain
    real option
    joint profits
    threshold
    stochastic exchange rate
    exporting project
    日期: 2008
    上传时间: 2009-09-14 09:33:37 (UTC+8)
    摘要: 本論文主要是以實質選擇權分析法對在最適決策下供應鏈及公司的價值進行評價。內容包含兩篇文章。第一章為緒論；第二章與第三章為主文。在此兩章中
    ，我們會先介紹研究動機、目的與文獻探討，接著架構模型，據以求出於最適決策下供應鏈或公司價值的封閉解後，以比較靜態分析法分析各參數對供應鏈或公司價值的影響。第四章為總結。<br>第一篇文章為對在隨機成本下供應鏈的評價。該模型是以單一供應商、單一零售商與多個消費者組成之垂直整合的二階段序列式動態供應鏈為架構，假設市場的現貨價格為動態過程，供應商和零售商每單位商品的成本為隨現貨價格變動的隨機成本。在此模型中，供應鏈的經營者以銷售量為決策，聯合利潤最大化為目標。此外，存貨設定在零售商的一方，而零售商所持有的存貨可視為擁有一個無窮期的美式買權，當存貨出清時，如同執行一個美式買權一般，以促使利潤的實現。接著我們利用比較靜態分析法就無風險利率和現貨價格報酬率的波動度對於最適決策下所求得的供應鏈價值之影響進行分析後，得到供應鏈價值會隨著無風險利率的上升而增加，亦會隨著現貨價格報酬率波動度的提高而增加。此結論和Cortazar and Schwartz(1993)以兩階段製造產品為運作模式之公司價值就無風險利率和現貨價格報酬率的波動度進行比較靜態分析後所得到的結果一致。<br>第二篇文章為對在隨機匯率下兩階段生產之公司進行評價。此文考慮Cortazar and Schwartz(1993)的模型，在產品之製造為兩階段式生產的條件下，納入隨機匯率，用實質選擇權分析法，評價以外銷專案為標的之公司價值。我們針對模型中的參數：本國的無風險利率、以外幣計價之現貨價格報酬率波動度及匯率波動度的變化對公司價值的影響進行分析後，而得到這些參數與公司價值呈現正相關的結果。此外，因動態現貨價格與隨機匯率的相關性
    ，我們亦分析現貨價格和匯率的相關係數對公司價值之影響後，得到兩者正相關程度越大或是負相關程度越小時，公司價值就越大，從而體認到僅從匯率走勢的升值或貶值來判斷外銷專案價值有利與否是不夠詳盡的，還要考慮現貨價格和匯率交互影響的程度，決策者才能做出有利於外銷專案更好的決定。<br>最後，我們將此兩篇文章歸納出一些重要的結論後，接著針對本論文研究主題的未來發展方向，提出一些觀點和建議，以作一個總結。
    This text uses a real options approach to price the value of the supply chain or the company. It contains two articles
    . Chapter 1 is the introduction; Chapter 2 and Chapter 3 are
    the main text.In these chapters, we introduce the study motive and literature review, the model, the closed form of the supply chain or the company in the optimal operating policy, and then use comparative statics method to analyze the effect of some parameters that risk-free interest rate, volatility of the spot price, volatility of the exchange rate etc. Finally, we give a summary.
    <br>The first article is in Chapter 2. It is to price the optimal value of the two echelon sequential dynamic supply chain which is composed of one supplier, one retailer and many consumers. In this model, we assume that the spot price
    of goods is a dynamic process, the costs of the per unit goods of supplier and retailer are up to the change of the spot price, the sales volume is the decision strategy, and their aim is to maximize joint profits. In this supply chain, the value of the stocks for retailer can be regarded as a perpetual American call option. Finally, we will use comparative static to examine the effect of the volatility of the spot price and risk free rate for the optimal value of the supply chain, and we obtain the same results as Cortazar and Schwartz’s (1993) optimal value of two-stage companies.<br>The second article is in Chapter 3. Based on the extended the Cortazar and Schwartz (1993) model, we use the Real Options Approach to price the closed form of the value of the two-stage production for a company under stochastic exchange rate. With regard to the parameters in the model: domestic risk-free interest rate, the volatility of the foreign spot price, and the volatility of the exchange rate,
    we find that the domestic risk-free interest rate, volatility of the foreign spot price, and the volatility of exchange rate have positive correlated with the optimal value of the company. Moreover, due to the correlated relation between the dynamic foreign spot price and the stochastic exchange rate, we analyze the change of the coefficient of correlation between the foreign spot price and the exchange rate, and obtained the more large optimal value of the company when they are more large positive correlated or negative correlated. In other word, we need to consider the influence between the foreign spot rate and the exchange rate at the same time, and then the manager can make the optimal decision about the exporting project.<br>Finally, we summed up some important conclusions of Chapter 2 and Chapter 3, and then proposed some views and suggestions for the study the theme and the developing direction in the future.
    參考文獻: [1]Arize, A. C., (1997). Conditional Exchange-Rate
    Volatility and the Volume of Foreign Trade: Evidence
    from Seven Industrialized Countries. Southern Economic
    Journal, 64(1), 235-254.
    [2]Black, F. and Scholes, M., (1973). The Pricing of
    Options and Corporate Liabilities, Journal of Political
    Economy, 81, 637-659.
    [3]Boyle, G. W. and G. A. Guthrie, (2003). Investment,
    Uncertainty, and Liquidity,Journal of Finances,58(5),
    2143 – 2166.
    [4]Brennan, M. J. and E. S. Schwartz, (1985). Evaluating
    Information and Management Sciences, 19(1), 31-51.
    Natural Resource Investments, Journal of Business, 58,
    April: 135-57.
    [5]Broll, U. and B. Eckwert, (1999). Exchange Rate
    Volatility and International Trade. Southern Economic
    Journal, 66,178-185.
    [6]Cachon, G. P. and P. H. Zipkin, (1999). Competitive and
    Cooperative Inventory Policies in a Two-Stage Supply
    Chain, Management Science, 45(7), 936-953.
    [7]Choi, C., (2001). Exchange Rates, Exchange Rates
    Volatility and Investment in Korea: An Empirical
    Investigation. Bank of Korea Economic Papers, 4(1), 177-
    193.
    [8]Considine, T. J. and D. F. Larson, (2001). Risk Premiums
    on Inventory Assets: The Case of Crude Oil and Natural
    Gas, Journal of Futures Markets, 21(2), 109–126.
    [9]Cortazar, G. and E. S. Schwartz, (1993). A Compound
    Option Model of Production and Intermediate Inventories,
    Journal of Business, 66(4), 517-540.
    [10]Dixit, A. K. and R. S. Pindyck, (1994). Investment
    under Uncertainty, Princeton University Press and
    Princeton, New Jersey.
    [11]He, H. and R. S. Pindyck, (1992). Investments in
    Flexible Production Capacity, Journal of Economic
    Dynamics and Control, 16, 575-599.
    [12]Henig, M., Y. Gerchak, R. Emst and D. F. Pyke, (1997).
    An Inventory Model Embedded in designing a Supply
    Contract, Management Science, 43(2), 184-189.
    [13]Ingersoll, J. E., (1987). Theory of Financial Decision
    Making, Totowa, N.J.:Rowman and Littlefield.
    [14]Leenders, M. R., H. E. Fearon, A. E. Flynn and P. F.
    Johnson, (1997). Purchasing and Supply Management. 11th
    Edition, Irwin, Chicago.
    [15]Majd, S. and R. S. Pindyck, (1987). Time to Build,
    Option Value, and Investment Decisions. Journal of
    Financial Economics, 18(1), 7-27.
    [16]McDonald R. and D. Siegel, (1986). The Value of Waiting
    to Invest, The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 101( 4),
    707-728.
    [17]Mentzer, J. T., D. W. William, S. K. James, M.
    Soonhong, W. N. Nancy, D. S. Carlo, and G. Z. Zach,
    (2001). Defining Supply Chain Management, Journal of
    Business Logistics, 22(2), 1-25.
    [18]Murphy, P. R. and D. F. Wood, (2007). Contemporary
    Logistics, 8th Edition, Prentice Hall, Upper Saddle
    River, New Jersey.
    [19]Musiela, M. and M. Rutkowski, (2004). Martingale Method
    in Financial Modelling, 2th Edition, Springer.
    [20]Myer, S. C., (1977). Determinates of Corporate
    Borrowing, Journal of Financial Economics, 5(2), 147-
    176.
    [21]Nagle, R. K. and E. B. Saff, (1996). Fundamentals of
    Differential Equations, 4th Edition, Addison-Wesley.
    [22]Paddock, J. L., D. R. Siegel, and J. L. Smith, (1988).
    Option Value of Claims on Real Assets: The Case of
    Offshore Petroleum Leases. The Quarterly Journal of
    Economics, 103(3), 479-508.
    [23]Pindyck, R. S., (1991). Irreversibility, Uncertainty,
    and Investment, Journal of Economic Literature, Vol.
    XXIX, (September), 110-1148.
    [24]Schwartz, E. S. and M. Moon, (2001). Rational Pricing
    of Internet Companies Revisited, The financial review,
    36, 7-26.
    [25]Schwartz, E. S. and L. Trigeorgis, (2001). Real Options
    and Investment under Uncertainty: Classical Readings
    and Recent Contributions, The MIT Press, Cambridge,
    Massachusetts and London, England.
    [26]Shreve, S. E., (2004). Stochastic Calculus for Finance
    II Continuous-Time Models, Springer.
    [27]Sukar, A. H. and S. Hassan, (2001). US Exports and Time-
    Varying Volatility of Real Exchange Rate. Global
    Finance Journal, 12, 109-119.
    [28]Sung, H., and H. E. Lapan, (2000). Strategic Foreign
    Direct Investment and Exchange-Rate Uncertainty,
    International Economic Review, 41(2), 411-423.
    [29]Trigeorgis, L., (1993). Real Options and interactions
    with financial Flexibility, Financial Management, 22
    (3), 202-224.
    [30]Weliwita, A., E. M. Ekanayake and H. Tsujii, (1999).
    Real Exchange Rate Volatility and SriLanka’s Exports
    to the Developed Countries, 1978-96. Journal of Economic
    Development 24(1).
    [31]Wong, K. P., (2004). Hedging Liquidity, and the
    Competitive Firm under Price Uncertainty, Journal of
    Futures Markets, 24(7), 697-706.
    [32]Wong, K. P., (2004). Liquidity Constraints and the
    hedging Role of Futures Spreads, Journal of Futures
    Markets, 24(10), 909-921.
    [33]Zhou, Y. W. and S. Yang, (2008). Pricing Coordination
    in Supply Chains through Revenue Sharing Contracts,
    描述: 博士
    國立政治大學
    金融研究所
    91352507
    97
    資料來源: http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0913525073
    数据类型: thesis
    显示于类别:[金融學系] 學位論文

    文件中的档案:

    档案 大小格式浏览次数
    index.html0KbHTML2269检视/开启


    在政大典藏中所有的数据项都受到原著作权保护.


    社群 sharing

    著作權政策宣告 Copyright Announcement
    1.本網站之數位內容為國立政治大學所收錄之機構典藏，無償提供學術研究與公眾教育等公益性使用，惟仍請適度，合理使用本網站之內容，以尊重著作權人之權益。商業上之利用，則請先取得著作權人之授權。
    The digital content of this website is part of National Chengchi University Institutional Repository. It provides free access to academic research and public education for non-commercial use. Please utilize it in a proper and reasonable manner and respect the rights of copyright owners. For commercial use, please obtain authorization from the copyright owner in advance.

    2.本網站之製作，已盡力防止侵害著作權人之權益，如仍發現本網站之數位內容有侵害著作權人權益情事者，請權利人通知本網站維護人員(nccur@nccu.edu.tw)，維護人員將立即採取移除該數位著作等補救措施。
    NCCU Institutional Repository is made to protect the interests of copyright owners. If you believe that any material on the website infringes copyright, please contact our staff(nccur@nccu.edu.tw). We will remove the work from the repository and investigate your claim.
    DSpace Software Copyright © 2002-2004  MIT &  Hewlett-Packard  /   Enhanced by   NTU Library IR team Copyright ©   - 回馈