政大機構典藏-National Chengchi University Institutional Repository(NCCUR):Item 140.119/30891

政大機構典藏-National Chengchi University Institutional Repository(NCCUR):Item 140.119/30891

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题名:	在抽樣調查中運用追蹤樣本對無反應所產生偏誤的修正探討
作者:	許石山
贡献者:	鄭宇庭許石山
关键词:	無反應追蹤調查 NON RESPONSE follow-up
日期:	2004
上传时间:	2009-09-14
摘要:	抽樣調查是統計學很重要的一部份，抽樣方法恰當與否關係著調查結果的成敗，然而無反應卻是一個很棘手的問題。基於成本考量，一般都會假設其對估計結果不會造成太大的影響，然而事實證明，在很多時候無反應的確會影響到估計結果的準確度，準確度的高低必需與真實母體參數值做比較，我們較難取得真實母體的資訊，所以我們使用模擬的方式在不同情況下來證實使用二次訪問(也就是追蹤調查)其估計結果的準確度較一般訪問(不進行二次訪問)的準確度高出許多。這個結果在某些情況下是特別明顯的，當有反應者與無反應其所包含的資訊差異很大且無反應的比重較高時，一般訪問的估計結果偏誤情況會比二次訪問的估計結果偏誤嚴重。針對無反應問題，許多學者提出一些補救的方法，例如加權法、插補法等等，然而至今沒有一個較明確且通用的方法可以有效改善無反應的偏誤問題，造成無反應的原因很多，我們只能針對這些可知的原因加以修正調查方式或內容；我們也不能假設有反應者與無反應者所代表的資訊會很相近，進而宣稱“可以只用有反應的樣本來估計母體參數並不會造成太大的偏誤”，我們只能從反應率方面著手來降低偏誤情況，提高反應率是我們可以努力的方向，從開始設計問卷到最後實施調查，中間很多環節都會直接或間接影響到反應率，我們只要針對這些環節多加考慮、規劃，盡可能免除會造成無反應的因素，相信對最後的反應率提高是很有幫助的。另一方面，追蹤訪問也是一個提高反應率的有效方法，針對第一次無反應的有效樣本再次進行重新訪問，如此也可以使偏誤降低，本研究著重在不同情況下進行二次訪問的效率探討及比較。
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描述:	碩士國立政治大學統計研究所 92354028 93
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