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| Title: | 貝氏方法在疾病地圖分析上之應用 |
| Authors: | 洪慈翊 |
| Contributors: | 陳麗霞
洪慈翊 |
| Keywords: | 疾病地圖
貝氏方法在疾病地圖
貝氏方法在疾病地圖分析上之應用 |
| Date: | 2003 |
| Issue Date: | 2009-09-14 |
| Abstract: | 本論文的目的是希望透過貝氏模型的建構,以瞭解疾病在空間上的分佈狀態。我們先討論Poisson-Gamma模式(PG)、本質的常態條件自我相關模式(ICAR)、適當的常態條件自我相關模式(PCAR)等三種模式的貝氏架構,以期適切地描述出空間中的疾病發生率並據以繪製疾病地圖。接著,再介紹貝氏因子(Bayes Factor)以對這三種模式進行模式選取。本論文並以結核病資料進行實證分析,就各年齡層分別計算三種模式間的貝氏因子,以選出各年齡層的最適模式,並對該模式估計出的相對風險率繪製疾病地圖, 結果顯示各年齡層的最適空間模式不儘相同。
由於群聚(clustering)現象亦為疾病空間統計之研究焦點,我們也介紹了群及間斷處的貝氏偵測法(BDCD),該方法是以可反轉跳動的蒙地卡羅馬可夫鏈(RJMCMC)為基礎。實證結果顯示相對風險率較高的地區多屬山地鄉等醫療環境較落後的偏遠地區,且39歲以下的年齡層支持PCAR模式,39歲以上的年齡層支持PG模式,也就是說青壯年的結核病空間分佈與鄰區間的距離、人數有著明顯的關係,至於中老年人的結核病空間分佈則是彼此獨立不相關的。 |
| Reference: | 楊堅:「台灣地區山地鄉結核病流行病學探討」,國立台灣大學流行病學研究所碩士論文, 民國89年。
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| Description: | 碩士
國立政治大學
統計研究所
90354019
92 |
| Source URI: | http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0090354019 |
| Data Type: | thesis |
| Appears in Collections: | [統計學系] 學位論文
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