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    題名: 國際投資組合之外匯管理策略探討
    作者: 邱曉玲
    貢獻者: 張元晨
    邱曉玲
    關鍵詞: 外匯分離管理
    消極型外匯分離管理
    積極型外匯分離管理
    純粹超額報酬管理
    currency overlay
    passive overlay
    active overlay
    pure alpha programme
    日期: 2007
    上傳時間: 2009-09-12 12:39:06 (UTC+8)
    摘要: 外匯分離管理（Currency Overlay）概念係起源自80年代末期，泛指對國際投資組合的匯率風險管理，其目標包含降低匯率風險、賺取外匯報酬（currency return）、或兩者混合，通常係由外匯管理者視投資人需求訂定之，並據以決定採行不同類型的管理方式--消極型外匯分離管理（passive overlay）、積極型外匯分離管理（active overlay）或是純粹超額報酬管理（pure alpha programme）。其中積極型外匯分離管理與純粹超額報酬管理係利用外匯市場效率不足，進行積極操作，試圖賺取超額報酬。
    本研究針對外匯分離管理中常所採用策略，包括PPP避險策略、遠期外匯溢價避險策略、移動平均避險策略，並另嘗試結合上述3種避險策略為一綜合避險策略，對8種主要貨幣與7種新興市場貨幣進行實証，研究期間由1999年初至2006年底，評估前述四種動態避險策略之避險績效是否優於完全未避險策略。實證結果發現，除了個別貨幣對美元呈現明顯貶值趨勢之期間外，動態避險策略之避險績效似乎未如預期中理想。其中PPP避險策略不論是對主要貨幣或是新興市場貨幣似無法發揮避險效益，顯示以相對購買力評價均衡匯價並不適用為避險指標。移動平均避險策略在外匯市場呈現明顯的趨勢時，尤其是出現大幅走貶時，避險績效較佳，惟在區間震盪或市場盤整的行情下，避險績效則未盡理想。受到近年來套利交易盛行，造成部份貨幣之遠期匯率偏誤現象明顯，因而使遠期外匯溢價避險策略具有不錯避險績效。至於綜合避險策略對主要貨幣之避險績效較佳，而對新興市場貨幣似無法發揮避險效益。
    積極型外匯分離管理成功關鍵在於外匯管理者對外匯市場未來趨勢有準確的看法，俾以進行動態避險操作。然而，外匯市場的變動不易預測，故投資人欲透過積極型外匯分離管理，達到同時規避匯率風險、增加外匯報酬之目標，難度相對較消極型外匯分離管理為高，而且投資人得承擔外匯管理者操作不佳所衍生的損失與風險。因此，建議保守投資人仍應採用消極型外匯分離管理方式。
    第一章 緒論……………………………………………………… 1
    第一節 研究動機與目的………………………………………… 1
    第二節 研究限制……………………………………………….. 2
    第三節 研究架構…………………………………………………. 2
    第二章 外匯分離管理介紹……………………………………… 5
    第一節 外匯分離管理的概念………………………………….. 5
    第二節 外匯分離管理的參考指標……………………………… 8
    第三節 外匯分離管理的類型…………………………………… 10
    第四節 外匯分離管理的風格…………………………………… 15
    第五節 外匯分離管理的主要策略……………………………… 17
    第六節 外匯分離管理的新趨勢………………………………... 23
    第三章 文獻探討………………………………………………….. 26
    第一節 基本面分析………………………………………………… 30
    第二節 技術分析………………………………………………….…... 32
    第三節 小結……………………………………………….…….…… 48
    第四章 研究方法……………………………………………………… 50
    第一節 研究方法建立……………………………………..………... 50
    第二節 避險績效的計算…………………………………………… 56
    第三節 樣本資料來源與樣本期間………………………………..…... 58
    第五章 實證結果與分析……………………………………………... 60
    第一節 整體避險績效……………………………………….………... 60
    第二節 個別避險策略的評析……………………...…………………… 60
    第六章 結論與建議…………………………..…………………………… 79
    第一節 結論……………………………………...…………………… 79
    第二節 後續研究建議……………………….………………………… 80
    參考文獻…………………………………………….…………………… 82
    附錄一 個別貨幣對美元匯率走勢………...…………………………..….… 89
    附錄二 個別貨幣之即期匯率與其避險比例圖………………………………. 90



    表目錄
    表2- 1 匯率避險工具之比較…………………………………… 11
    表2- 2 積極型外匯分離管理與純粹超額報酬管理之比較…………… 14
    表2- 3 消極型外匯分離管理、積極型外匯分離管理、純粹超額報酬管理三者比較…………………………………………… 15
    表2-4 新興市場貨幣與其他資產或貨幣之間相關性……………….. 24
    表3-1 問券調查研究之文獻整理…………………………… 28
    表3-2 早期技術分析獲利性文獻整理…………………………… 37
    表3-3 現代技術分析獲利性文獻整理………………………… 38
    表3-4 採用拔靴法（bootstrap）之技術分析文獻整理………………
    41
    表3-5 使用基因演算法之技術分析文獻整理…………………… 42
    表3-6 使用真實檢定（reality check）之技術分析文獻整理………… 43
    表3-7 使用圖形特性之技術分析文獻整理………………………… 44
    表3-8 使用非線性模型進行實證之技術分析文獻整理…………… 45
    表3-9 其他技術分析文獻整理…………………………………… 45
    表4-1 每日外匯損益總額計算…………………………………… 58
    表4-2 新興市場國家之匯率制度概況…………………………… 59
    表5-1 5種避險策略之平均年報酬率彙整表…………………… 61
    表5-2 PPP避險策略對主要貨幣之避險績效…………………… 62
    表5-3 PPP避險策略對新興市場貨幣之避險績效………………… 63
    表5-4 移動平均避險策略對主要貨幣之避險績效………………… 66
    表5-5 移動平均避險策略對新興市場貨幣之避險績效…………… 68
    表5-6 遠期外匯溢價避險策略對主要貨幣之避險績效………… 70
    表5-7 遠期外匯溢價避險策略對新興市場貨幣之避險績效………… 72
    表5-8 綜合避險策略對主要貨幣之避險績效…………………… 74
    表5-9 綜合避險策略對新興市場貨幣之避險績效……………… 76






    圖目錄

    圖 1-1 研究架構圖………………………………………… 4
    圖 2-1 未經外匯分離管理的資產配置流程………………………… 5
    圖 2-2 經外匯分離管理的資產配置流程…………………………… 6
    圖 2-3 投資組合外匯報酬之分配…………………………… 7
    圖 4-1 PPP避險策略之避險操作說明（以USDJPY匯率為例）……… 51
    圖 4-2 PPP避險策略之避險操作說明（以EURUSD匯率為例）……… 52
    圖 4-3 遠期外匯溢酬避險策略之避險操作說明（以USDJPY匯率為例）……………………………………………………… 54
    圖 4-4 遠期外匯溢酬避險策略之避險操作說明（以EURUSD匯率為例）……………………………………………………… 55
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    描述: 碩士
    國立政治大學
    經營管理碩士學程(EMBA)
    94932257
    96
    資料來源: http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0094932257
    資料類型: thesis
    顯示於類別:[經營管理碩士學程EMBA] 學位論文

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