Loading...
|
Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item:
https://nccur.lib.nccu.edu.tw/handle/140.119/30045
|
| Title: | 全球貿易自由化對台灣經濟之影響：以杜哈回合談判與東協加三自由貿易區為例 |
| Authors: | 陳寶丞 |
| Contributors: | 陳坤銘
陳寶丞 |
| Keywords: | 東協加三
杜哈回合談判
服務業
ASEAN+3
Doha Round
service industry
FTAP
FDI |
| Date: | 2006 |
| Issue Date: | 2009-09-11 17:07:28 (UTC+8) |
| Abstract: | 由於WTO杜哈回合談判正在積極進行，而且東亞各國整合的程度、涵括的領域、融入的國家均有愈來愈深、愈來愈廣的趨勢，相信此兩股貿易自由化風潮對我國商品的競爭力、投資與經貿活動均會產生一定的影響，因此有必要於此進行深入研究。故本研究利用FTAP模型模擬分析(1)東協加三FTA，(2) 杜哈回合談判，以及(3) 東協加三FTA+杜哈回合談判之經濟效果，以便了解上述三個情境對台灣的影響。
本研究實證結果顯示：(1) 東協加三FTA將使台灣的整體福利減少1252.26百萬美元；對總體經濟方面的影響，台灣實質GDP減少0.25%，並使貿易條件惡化0.86%。(2) 杜哈回合談判若順利完成，台灣整體福利將增加4875.09百萬美元。總體經濟方面，台灣實質GDP將成長1.01%，貿易條件將改善1.16%。(3) 在東協加三FTA簽定且杜哈回合談判順利完成下，台灣整體福利增加4211.92百萬美元；總體經濟方面，將使台灣的實質GDP增加0.88%，貿易條件改善0.73%。
另外，本研究發現：(1) 區域貿易協定與多邊貿易協定間，彼此對於福利與產出等效果，會有互相抵消的情況發生。多邊貿易協定的簽定會大幅的削弱區域貿易協定所產生的效果。然而，區域貿易協定卻僅能抵消掉小部分多邊貿易協定所產生的效果。(2) 區域間自由貿易協定的簽定，不但會使區域外的國家遭受福利與產出等總體經濟的損失，並且也會抵消掉多邊貿易協定所產生的各項效果。(3) 若是能儘快完成杜哈回合談判，各國家儘快完成多邊貿易協定，則各個國家對於簽署區域或是雙邊自由貿易協定的意願可能會大大的減低。
In recent years, WTO has been undertaking Doha Round negotiation. In addition, there is a deepening and widening trend on the integration of South East Asia economies. There two meovements of global trade liberalization might considerably impact investment and international trade activities of Taiwan as well as its international competitiveness. Therefore, investigating the integration of South East Asia regional economy should be reckoned as important. In this light, this thesis, based on the FTAP model, conducts simulation analyses to testify how (1) a free trade agreement among ASEAN plus three nations, (2) the accomplishment of Doha Round and (3) a free trade agreement among ASEAN plus three nations and the accomplishment of Doha Round will influence the economy of Taiwan.
The empirical results have shown: (1) ASEAN+3 FTA will decrease Taiwanese welfare by $1,252.26 million dollars. It will also deteriorate the real GDP and TOT of Taiwan by 0.25% and 0.86%. (2) The accomplishment of Doha Round will increase Taiwanese welfare by $4,875.09 million dollars. Additionally, it will improve the real GDP and TOT of Taiwan by 1.01% and 1.16%. (3) ASEAN+3 FTA and the accomplishment of Doha Round together will generate additional $4,211.92 million dollars welfare to Taiwan, and improve the real GDP and TOT of Taiwan by 0.88% and 0.73%, respectively.
Moreover, this thesis has found several interesting policy implications. First, the effects of a regional trade agreement and a multilateral trade agreement on welfare and outputs will offset each other. The effect of a multilateral trade agreement is generally greater than the effect of a regional trade agreement. Second, free trade agreements of different regions not only harm the welfare and outputs of countries outside these regions but also offset the benefits provided by the multilateral trade agreement. Finally, considering it may decrease the willingness to develop regional or bilateral free trade agreements, governments should treat the accomplishment of the multilateral trade agreement, such as Doha Round, as the top priority. |
| Reference: | 中文部份：
1. 中華經濟研究院（2000），〈加入WTO 對我國整體產業影響之評估〉，行政院經濟建設委員會委託計畫研究。
2. 中華經濟研究院（2001），〈兩岸加入WTO 對臺灣製造業衝擊：微觀分析〉，當前經濟問題分析（18）。
3. 中華經濟研究院 (2004a)，〈全球FTA/RTA整合發展趨勢及我國因應策略〉，經濟部國際貿易局委託計畫研究。
4. 中華經濟研究院（2004b），〈全球經貿結盟「區域化」與「雙邊化」的趨勢與衝擊〉，行政院經濟建設委員會委託計畫研究。
5. 中華經濟研究院（2004c），〈亞太經濟整合對我國產業發展之影響評估〉，經濟部工業局委託計畫研究。
6. 中華經濟研究院（2005a），〈WTO新回合談判對我國經濟之影響評估 – 計量模型分析〉，經濟部國際貿易局委託計畫研究。
7. 中華經濟研究院（2005b），〈臺灣參與東亞經濟整合之影響評估〉，經濟部委託計畫研究。
8. 中華經濟研究院（2007），〈台美FTA效益分析與推動策略〉，經濟部委託計畫研究。
9. 林幸君、劉瑞文、徐世勳(1998)，〈兩岸加入WTO 對總體經濟與產業結構變動之影響評估--全球貿易分析模型（GTAP）之應用〉，《臺灣經濟學會年會論文集》， 第81-113頁。
10. 林幸君（2004），〈全球貿易分析（GTAP）資料庫演進與應用之探討〉，《農業與經濟》第32 期，第107-143頁。
11. 林國榮、徐世勳、張靜貞、李秉正、黃宗煌（2001），〈加入WTO對臺灣農業就業衝擊之動態一般均衡分析〉，《農業經濟從刊》第7 卷第1 期，第101-140頁。
12. 杜巧霞、王文娟、溫麗琪、連文榮、陳坤銘、郭迺鋒（2002），〈台灣與美國自由貿易協定經濟影響評估報告」〉，經濟部國際貿易局委託研究計畫。
13. 周濟、張佩珍(2002)，〈我國參與WTO多邊貿易談判策略之經濟分析〉，國貿局委託研究計劃。
14. 周濟、陳坤銘、郭迺鋒（2004），〈The Impact of East Asian Economic Integration on Taiwan〉，《台灣經濟論衡》，第2卷第10期,第53-71頁。
15. 周濟、郭迺峰、方文秀、陳美琇（2005），〈東亞經濟整合對臺灣經濟的影響 – 2005年至2010年遞迴動態GTAP模型分析〉，《經濟情勢暨評論》，第10卷第4期，第1-41頁。
16. 周濟、陳坤銘、郭迺鋒（2005），〈全球區域化經濟整合對臺灣經濟的影響 – 遞迴動態CGE模型之應用〉，《財稅研究》，第37卷第2期，第68-80頁。
17. 徐世勳、蔡名書（2001），〈區域貿易協定演變對APEC與臺灣經貿的影響評估—「東協+3」成立自由貿易區的模擬分析〉，《自由中國之工業》第91卷第10期，第1-45頁。
18. 陳麗瑛、郭迺峰（2003），〈WTO架構下兩岸開放直航對臺灣及東亞經濟之影響〉，《經濟整合過程中東亞經濟的前景》，第162-192頁。
19. 童振源（2006），〈東亞經濟整合與台灣的戰略〉，《問題與研究》第45卷第2期，第25-60頁。
20. 靖心慈（2001），〈東協國家的工業合作和發展方向〉，《主要國家產經政策動態季刊》第一期。
21. 臺灣經濟研究院（2004a），〈大陸與港澳簽署更繄密經貿關係對臺灣之影響〉，中華民國工商協進會委託計畫研究。
22. 臺灣經濟研究院（2004b），〈東協與中國建立自由貿易區之影響評估〉，行政院研考會委託計畫研究。
英文部份：
1. Anderson, K., Francois, J. (1997), “Commercial Links Between Western Europe and East Asia: Retrospect and Prospects,” CEPR Discussion Papers, No. 1760.
2. Anderson, K., Dimaranan, B., Hertel, T. W., Martin, W. (1997), “Economic Growth and Policy Reform in the APEC Region: Trade and Welfare Implications by 2005,” CEPR Discussion Papers, No. 1605.
3. Baldwin, R. (1989), “Measureable Dynamic Gains from Trade,” NBER Working Papers, No. 3147.
4. Baldwin, R., Francois, J. (1997), “Preferential Trade Liberalization in the North Atlantic,” CEPR Discussion Papers, No. 1611.
5. Baldwin, R. (1997), “The Causes of Regionalism,” CEPR Discussion Papers, No. 1599.
6. Bhagwati, J., Greenaway, D., and Panagariya, A. (1998), “Trading Preferentially: Theory and Policy,” The Economic Journal, 108(449), pp. 1128–1148.
7. Brenton, P., Lucke, M. (1999), “Economic Integration and FDI: An Empirical Analysis of Foreign Investment in the EU and in Central and Eastern Europe,” Empirica, Vol. 26, No. 2, p. 108.
8. Dee, P. (2005), “A Compendium of Barriers to Services Trade,” prepared for World Bank.
9. Dee, P. and Hanslow, K. (1999), “Multilateral Liberalisation of Services Trade,” paper presented at the World Services Congress.
10. Dee, P. and Hanslow, K. (2001), “Multilateral Liberalisation of Services Trade,” in R. Stern, (ed.), Services in the International Economy, University of Michigan Press, Ann Arbor, pp. 117–39.
11. Dee, P., Hanslow, K. and Phamduc, T. (2003), “Measuring the Cost of Barriers to Trade in Services,” in Ito, T. and Krueger, A. (eds), Services Trade in the Asia-Pacific Region, NBER-East Asia Seminar on Economics, Volume 11, University of Chicago Press, Chicago, pp. 11–43.
12. Ekholm, K., Forslid, R. and Markusen, J. R. (2003), “Export-Platform Foreign Direct Investment,” National Bureau of Economic Research Working Paper, No. 9517.
13. Ethier, W. J. (1998), “Regionalism in a Multilateral World,” Journal of Political Economy, vol. 106(6), pp. 1214-1245.
14. Ethier, W. J. (1998), “The New Regionalism,” Economic Journal, vol. 108(449), pp. 1149-61.
15. Hanslow, K., Phamduc, T. and Verikios, G. (2000), “The Structure of the FTAP Model,” Research Memorandum, Cat No: MC58, Productivity Commission, Australian.
16. Hertel, T. (1997), “Global Trade Analysis: Modelling and Applications,” Cambridge University Press, Cambridge.
17. Kindleberger, C. P. (1966), “European Integration and the International Corporation,” Columbia Journal of World Business, Vol. 1, pp. 65-73.
18. Markusen, J., Rutherford, T. F. and Tarr, D. (1999), “Foreign Direct Investment in Services and the Domestic Market for Expertise,” paper presented at Second Annual Conference on Global Economic Analysis, Denmark.
19. Meade, J. E. (1955), “Trade and Welfare,” Oxford University Press, Oxford.
20. Meade, J. E. (1957), “The Balance of Payments Problems of A European Free Trade Area,” Economic Journal, vol. 67, pp. 379-96.
21. Ni, H. (2003), “Economic Effects of Singapore`s Bilateral Free Trade Agreement with Japan on Other ASEAN Economies: A Computable General Equilibrium Approach”.
22. Petri, P. A. (1997), “Foreign Direct Investment in A Computable General Equilibrium Framework,” paper prepared for the conference, Making APEC work: Economic Challenges and Policy Alternatives, 13-14 March, Keio University, Tokyo.
23. Summers, L. H. (1991), “Regionalism and The World Trading System,” Economic Review, 3, pp. 295–301.
24. Urata, S., Kiyota, K. (2003), “The Impacts of An East Asia FTA on Foreign Trade in East Asia,” NBER Working Paper, No. 10173.
25. Viner, J. (1950), “The Customs Union Issue,” Stevens&Sons Press, London.
26. Waldkirch, A. (2003), “The New Regionalism and Foreign Direct Investment: the Case of Mexico,” Journal of International Trade and Economic Development, Vol. 12, No. 2, pp. 151-184. |
| Description: | 碩士
國立政治大學
國際經營與貿易研究所
94351012
95 |
| Source URI: | http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0094351012 |
| Data Type: | thesis |
| Appears in Collections: | [國際經營與貿易學系 ] 學位論文
|
Files in This Item:
| File |
Size | Format | |
|---|
| index.html | 0Kb | HTML2 | 335 | View/Open |
|
All items in 政大典藏 are protected by copyright, with all rights reserved.
|
