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Title:	中國大陸經濟崛起對東協經濟發展影響 The Impact of an Emerging of China on ASEAN`s Economic Development
Authors:	吳德美(Te-Mei Yen Wu) 曾聖文(Sheng-Wen Tseng)
Date:	2005-05
Issue Date:	2009-07-29 23:05:21 (UTC+8)
Abstract:	隨著貿易全球化與區域經濟整合的浪潮，中國大陸與東協國家的經貿互動更趨密切，東協國家在面對中國大陸經濟擴張的壓力下，需要一面積極開發大陸市場，並在區域經濟整合的趨勢下，一面確保自身的經濟發展與產業成長。因此，究竟中國大陸的經濟擴張對於東協國家的經濟發展有何影響？是發展機會還是「中國威脅」？便成為東協國家十分關切的課題。為了分析中國大陸經濟擴張對於東協國家經濟成長的影響，本文整理分析中國大陸與東協國家的經貿互動歷程，並應用一九九○～二○○三年中國大陸與東協國家的經貿資料，以修正Maxwell Fry所建立的實證模型進行估計，來檢測中國大陸的經貿崛起對東協國家經濟發展的影響。本研究主要結果為：（一）中國大陸與東協國家間的貿易依賴與投資規模日趨緊密，且雙方經貿互動方式由單一貿易往來發展到多元的經濟技術合作，進而建立更緊密的區域經貿整合機制；（二）東協國家對中國大陸的出口有助於自身經濟成長、中國大陸經濟成長有益於東協國家（尤其是「東協4」國家，包括越南、寮國、柬埔寨與緬旬）經濟成長、中國大陸經濟成長也有益於東協國家（尤其是「東協6」國家，包括新加坡、汶萊、馬來西亞、泰國、菲律賓與印尼）出口成長，以及「東協6」國家對於中國大陸FDI對於「東協6」國家的出口成長有正向影響；（三）「東協6」國家對中國大陸FDI不利於其經濟成長，以及中國大陸經濟成長率對於「東協－6」國家進口成長有顯著正向的影響。 The purpose of this paper is to analyze the impact of China`s economic expansion on ASEAN`s economic growth. We use data from economic growth, exports, imports, and FDI between China and the ten ASEAN members of from 1990 to 2003 to reconstruct the empirical model developed by Maxwell Fry (1993; 1996). The empirical results show that, firstly, an emerging China encourages increased trade interdependence and FDI flows between China and the ASEAN. Secondly, the increase in exports from ASEAN to China and China`s economic growth have had a positive effect on ASEAN`s economic growth (especially Vietnam, Laos, Cambodia, Burma). Thirdly, the magnitude of foreign direct investment (FDI) from the higher-income ASEAN countries (Singapore. Brunei. Malaysia. Thailand. Philippines. and Indonesia to China has steadily increased but has had a negative impact on economic growth accompanied by a positive impact regarding exports to China. Lastly, China`s economic growth has had a positive impact on imports for higher-income ASEAN countries (Singapore, Brunei, Malaysia, Thailand, Philippines, and Indonesia).
Relation:	問題與研究 44卷3期 57-92頁
Data Type:	article
Appears in Collections:	[Graduate Institute of Development Studies] Periodical Articles

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