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    題名: 一九九八年大陸的外貿表現：J曲線效應探討
    其他題名: Mainland China`s Foreign Trade in 1998: a Discussion of the J-curve Effect
    作者: 洪淑芬
    關鍵詞: 一九九八年;出口;外貿;J曲線效應;匯率
    1998;Export;International trade;J-curve effect;Foreign exchange rate
    日期: 1999-05
    上傳時間: 2009-01-15 09:33:32 (UTC+8)
    摘要: 一九九八年中國大陸出口僅比一九九七年成長0.5％，為十五年來成長幅度最低的一年。同時，中國大陸的進口也有較大幅度的下降，一九九八年全年下降了1.5％，外貿順差435.9億美元，成長了7.9％。顯然，一九九八年中國大陸的外貿尚能維持順差主要係來自於進口的下降。　　東亞國家受金融風暴重創而出現的貸幣貶值效應，理論上是會影響中國大陸的出口，然而實務上，東亞國家最初由於貨幣貶值所獲之競爭優勢，大多已因其幣值之反彈以及其國內由進口品價格上漲帶來過度的通貨膨脹消耗殆盡；同時大陸內部方面：其出口結構正逐漸朝向高新科技產品調整，且中共當局多次調降利率等行政措施，已部分抵銷東亞國家貨幣貶值對大陸出口造成的壓力。於未來一至二年裡，東亞貨幣貶值對中國大陸外貿的影響將會深刻逐漸顯現出來，進而使中國大陸經濟維持高速成長有一定的困難
    Although mainland China was not directly involved in the financial crisis that occurred in 1997, the influence of the crisis on China`s exports exceeded the expectations of Chinese Oifficials. From 1997 to 1998, the economic growth rate was only 0.5%, the lowest increase in 15 years. In 1998, mainland China`s imports decreased 1.5%. A favorable trade balance of US$43.59 billion was achieved. The net growth of the trade surplus was 7.9%. Obviously, this favorable international trade balance was due to the decrease imports. Mainland China exports could possibly be affected by the currency devaluation resulting from the East Asian financial crisis. However, most of the competi- tiveness initially gained by those Asian countries that devalued their currencies was quickly lost. This is due not only to a rebound in their currencies, but also to excessive inflation fuelled by rising import prices. At the same time, such adjustments by mainland China as raised interest rates had partially overcome the pressure of the devaluation of East Asian countries` currencies. In the next one or two years, the devaluation of East Asian currencies will affect mainland`s internal trading making it difficult to maintain a high economic growth rate in the mainland.
    關聯: 中國大陸研究,42(5),35-51
    資料類型: article
    顯示於類別:[國際關係研究中心] 期刊論文

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