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政大機構典藏 > 社會科學學院 > 經濟學系 > 期刊論文 > Item 140.119/23271

Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: https://nccur.lib.nccu.edu.tw/handle/140.119/23271

Title:	On the emergent properties of artificial stock markets: the efficient market hypothesis and the rational expectations hypothesis
Authors:	陳樹衡 Chen,Shu-Heng;Yeh,Chia-Hsuan
Contributors:	政大經濟系
Keywords:	Artiﬁcial stock markets;Emergent properties;Efﬁcient market hypothesis;Rational expectations hypothesis;Genetic programming
Date:	2002-10
Issue Date:	2009-01-09 12:16:52 (UTC+8)
Abstract:	By studying two well known hypotheses in economics, this paper illustrates how emergent properties can be shown in an agent-based artificial stock market. The two hypotheses considered are the efficient market hypothesis and the rational expectations hypothesis. We inquire whether the macrobehavior depicted by these two hypotheses is consistent with our understanding of the microbehavior. In this agent-based model, genetic programming is applied to evolving a population of traders learning over time. We first apply a series of econometric tests to show that the EMH and the REH can be satisfied with some portions of the artificial time series. Then, by analyzing traders’ behavior, we show that these aggregate results cannot be interpreted as a simple scaling-up of individual behavior. A conjecture based on sunspot-like signals is proposed to explain why macrobehavior can be very different from microbehavior. We assert that the huge search space attributable to genetic programming can induce sunspot-like signals, and we use simulated evolved complexity of forecasting rules and Granger causality tests to examine this assertion.
Relation:	Journal of Economic Behavior and Organization,49(2),217-239
Data Type:	article
DOI 連結:	http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/S0167-2681(02)00068-9
DOI:	10.1016/S0167-2681(02)00068-9
Appears in Collections:	[經濟學系] 期刊論文

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