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Title:	政黨合作與杜瓦傑法則：連宋配、國親合的賽局分析
Other Titles:	Party Cooperation and Duverger`s Law: A Game-theoretical Analysis of Pan-Blue Alliance
Authors:	劉義周;田弘華 Liu, I-chou
Keywords:	杜瓦傑法則;政黨合作;賽局理論
Date:	2005-06
Issue Date:	2008-12-30 13:55:31 (UTC+8)
Abstract:	杜瓦傑法則(Duverger`s law)中最為人熟悉的重要內容之一，即指出相對多數決選舉制度會傾向於產生兩黨體制。形成這種結果的解釋中，理性選民的「心理性因素」是重要的一項。在單一當選相對多數決的選舉中，理性選民為避免浪費選票會策略性地投給有希望勝選的大黨候選人。我們可以換個角度，從政黨的考量出發。對政黨而言，除非在選舉中有贏得過半票數的把握，否則為避免落選而逐漸被淘汰，可以主動出擊，在選舉上和其他政黨合作，來確保當選的可能性。比如在某些選區支持其他政黨，以換取在其他某些選區的勝選；或者是聯合競選，以換取當選後共同執政的利益。換言之，透過政治利弊得失的計算分析，政黨領導人可以在選前聯盟合作，來獲取政黨與自身的最大利益。即使在選民無法進行策略性投票的情況下，這樣的政黨合作會不會產生兩黨制？杜瓦傑所預測的發展，在這種情形下會發生嗎？本文研究目的即為建立一個賽局理論模型，分析政黨菁英之間選前合作的問題，探討政黨合作聯合競選與杜瓦傑法則之間的關係。在三個假定條件下，本文證明政黨會合作，共推一組候選人聯合競選，使得杜瓦傑法則兩黨政治的預測成立。但當這三個假設不能滿足時，杜瓦傑法則就不一定成立。國民黨與親民黨為角逐二○○四年的總統而跨黨合作，共推連戰、宋楚瑜為代表泛藍與陳水扁所領軍的泛綠對決。這是台灣選舉史上政黨正式合作競選的首例。本文亦將從政黨合作的角度，利用賽局理論的分析架構，就「連宋配、國親合」這個案例，分成「該不該配」、「如何配」與「要不要合」三部分做進一步的解釋與討論。 This paper investigates the relationship between political party cooperation and Duverger`s Law. A theoretical model is build in order to demonstrate whether two party leaders would cooperate or not and therefore nominate only one candidate to campaign. The results shed light on how Duverger`s law is satisfied through pre-election coordination between political parties. Under three assumptions, Duverger`s la is satisfied. Otherwise, candidates of three political parties will run election under the plurality electoral system.In addition, Kuomintang (KMT) part and People First (PF) party decided to campaign 2004 presidential election together Lien Chan and James Soong are recommended as the presidential and vice-presidential candidates by pan-blue coalition. This is the first time in Taiwan electoral history that political parties formally form an alliance. Therefore, Chen Shui-bian and Lien Chan will run the election and therefore becomes the competition between pan-green coalition and pan-blue coalition. The above theory can analyze this case and explain why such a party cooperation exists as well.
Relation:	臺灣政治學刊,9(1),1-19
Data Type:	article
Appears in Collections:	[Department of Political Science] Periodical Articles

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