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| Title: | 冷戰後美中關係變化：國內政治對美國對中國政策的影響（1993～2025）
Post-Cold War U.S.-China Relations: The Influence of Domestic Politics on U.S. China Policy (1993–2025) |
| Authors: | 李奕樺
Li, Yi-Hua |
| Contributors: | 薛健吾
楊文琪
Hsueh, Chien-wu
Yang, Wen-Chi
李奕樺
Li, Yi-Hua |
| Keywords: | 美國對中國民意
美國企業對中態度
權力移轉
強勢性
美國對中政策
U.S. public opinion toward China
U.S. business attitudes toward China
power transition
assertiveness
U.S. policy toward China |
| Date: | 2025 |
| Issue Date: | 2025-09-01 16:16:21 (UTC+8) |
| Abstract: | 本文研究問題聚焦在冷戰結束後到川普2025年1月上任前的美中關係的變化，試圖對1993到2025年1月間的中美關係的變化提出一個系統性的解釋論點。本文認為，即便雙方相對權力的變化是影響雙邊關係的重要結構性因素，但若要解釋美國對中政策具體出現變化的時間點，則國內因素的變動（展現在大選之後新任總統上台之後的中國政策）則有更為直接的影響。根據相關研究的建議，本文認為，至少有兩個自變數對於冷戰後中美關係的變化有著重要的影響：美國民意對中國的好感度的變化以及美國企業對中國的態度的變化。從1993到2000年，當美國的民意對中國的好感度下降，但是美國的企業對中國態度仍為友善時，美國的對中政策傾向於積極交往；2001至2009年，當美國的民意對中國的好感度維持，且美國的企業對中國的態度仍為友善時，美國對中國衝突和緩；2010到2015年，當美國的民意對中國的好感度維持，但美國的企業對中國的態度開始出現敵對時，美國開始對中國採取更加競合併存的關係；2016到2025年1月，當美國的民意對中國的好感度持續下降時，且美國的企業對中國的態度也趨於敵對時，美國對中國採取戰略競爭的態勢開始凸顯。美國民意視中國為戰略競爭國家，加上兩國企業相互爭奪市場，最終影響美國對中政策，預估未來兩國仍處於戰略競爭狀態。
This study examines the evolution of U.S.–China relations from the end of the Cold War to the eve of Donald Trump’s inauguration in January 2025, aiming to provide a systematic explanatory framework for changes in bilateral relations between 1993 and January 2025. While shifts in relative power constitute an important structural factor shaping bilateral relations, this study argues that domestic factors—manifested in the China policy adopted by newly inaugurated presidents following national elections—have a more direct influence on the timing of policy shifts.
Drawing on relevant scholarship, it identifies two independent variables that have significantly shaped the post–Cold War trajectory of U.S.–China relations: changes in American public favorability toward China and changes in U.S. business attitudes toward China. From 1993 to 2000, when public favorability declined but U.S. businesses remained generally friendly, U.S. policy tended toward active engagement. Between 2001 and 2009, when public favorability remained stable and business attitudes continued to be amicable, Washington’s posture was characterized by a reduction in bilateral conflict. From 2010 to 2015, while public favorability stayed steady, the rise of more adversarial business attitudes prompted the United States to adopt a relationship marked by simultaneous competition and cooperation. Finally, from 2016 to January 2025, as public favorability continued to fall and business attitudes turned hostile, strategic competition came to the forefront.
With American public opinion increasingly viewing China as a strategic rival and corporate competition over market share intensifying, U.S. policy toward China is likely to remain defined by strategic competition for the foreseeable future. |
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| Description: | 碩士
國立政治大學
外交學系
109253020 |
| Source URI: | http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0109253020 |
| Data Type: | thesis |
| Appears in Collections: | [外交學系] 學位論文
|
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