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| 題名: | 土耳其艾爾多安總統對俄羅斯外交政策之研究
A study on Türkiye’s foreign policy toward Russia under president Erdoğan |
| 作者: | 高詩函
Kao, Shih-Han |
| 貢獻者: | 魏百谷
高詩函
Kao, Shih-Han |
| 關鍵詞: | 土耳其對俄外交政策
土俄關係
艾爾多安
新古典現實主義
Türkiye’s foreign policy towards Russia
Türkiye–Russia relations
Recep Tayyip Erdoğan
Neoclassical realism |
| 日期: | 2025 |
| 上傳時間: | 2025-08-04 14:35:07 (UTC+8) |
| 摘要: | 本論文旨在探討艾爾多安於2003年至2024年對俄羅斯的外交政策之演變，以新古典現實主義為分析架構，從艾爾多安個人因素出發，分析艾爾多安的宗教背景、伊斯蘭文明觀如何形塑其外交決策偏好，尤其是在對俄政策上與普丁之互動。接著以總理與總統兩個時期為區間進行分析，外交政策由親西方轉向多向度合作，2016年土國政變後，因國內政治制度轉型成總統制，進而強化艾爾多安對外交政策的主導地位。此外，本文藉由探討數起危機事件，檢視艾爾多安與普丁的領導人互動如何成為雙邊關係修補的關鍵。
研究發現，土耳其對俄政策的形成並非單純回應國際體系壓力，而是在國內制度環境、與領導人認知的共同影響的政策選擇，反映新古典現實主義所強調的外交政策並非結構壓力的單一結果，而是與國內中介變數交互作用的結果。
This thesis discusses Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s foreign policy toward Russia from 2003 to 2024, using neoclassical realism as the analytical framework. From Erdoğan’s personal factors, particularly on his religious background, civilizational understanding of Islam, especially his interactions with Vladimir Putin have shaped his foreign policy preferences.
The analysis distinguishes between Erdoğan’s tenure as prime minister and president, demonstrating a shift from a prowestern to a multidimensional diplomacy. Following the 2016 failed coup attempt and the transition to a presidential system, Erdoğan consolidated his control over foreign policy and decision-making. Several diplomatic crisis are also discussed to illustrate how leadership-level interactions between Erdoğan and Putin became critical reason for repairing bilateral relations.
Overall, the evolution of Erdoğan’s foreign policy toward Russia shows that, according to neoclassical realism, foreign policy is shaped by structural pressures and intervening variables, including international structural pressure, domestic political changes, and leadership factors. |
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U.S. Department of State. (n.d.). Foreign terrorist organizations. U.S. Department of State. https://www.state.gov/foreign-terrorist-organizations/ https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2022/09/16/turkey-to-pay-for-quarter-of-russian-gas-in-rubles-putin-a78818（檢索日期：2025年5月28日）
U.S. Department of the Treasury. (2018, August 1). Treasury Sanctions Turkish Officials with Leading Roles in the Unjust Detention of Pastor Andrew Brunson. https://home.treasury.gov/news/press-releases/sm453（檢索日期：2025年5月28日）
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Ülgül, M. (2019). Erdoğan’s personal diplomacy and Turkish foreign policy. Insight Turkey, 21(4), 23–45. https://www.insightturkey.com/articles/erdogans-personal-diplomacy-and-turkish-foreign-policy
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World Bank. (2025, April 28). GDP per capita (current US$) - Türkiye. https://data.worldbank.org.cn/indicator/NY.GDP.PCAP.CD?end=2014&locations=TR&start=2003（檢索日期：2025年5月28日）
Wasilewski, K. (2016). Consequences of the Assassination of the Russian Ambassador to Turkey. (PISM Bulletin No. 90/940). Polish Institute of International Affairs.
Yilmaz, I., & Bashirov, G. (2018). The AKP after 15 years: Emergence of Erdoganism in Turkey. Third World Quarterly, 39(9), 1812-1830.
Yeşiltaş, M. (2014). Turkey’s quest for a “new international order”: The discourse of civilization and the politics of restoration. Perceptions: Journal of International Affairs, 19(4), 43-75.
Yeldan, E. (2002). Behind the 2000/2001 Turkish crisis: stability, credibility, and governance, for whom?. Universitäts-und Landesbibliothek Sachsen-Anhalt.
Yavuz, M. H., & Koç, R. (2016). The Turkish Coup Attempt: The Gülen Movement vs. the State. Middle East Policy, 23(4), 136–148.
Young, M. (2021, December 2). Why is Turkey’s President cutting interest rates, spurring inflation and lowering the value of the lira? Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. https://carnegieendowment.org/middle-east/diwan/2021/12/why-is-turkeys-president-cutting-interest-rates-spurring-inflation-and-lowering-the-value-of-the-lira?lang=en（檢索日期：2025年5月28日）
Zeydanlıoğlu, W. (2012). Turkey’s Kurdish language policy. International Journal of the Sociology of Language, 2012(217), 99–125. https://doi.org/10.1515/ijsl-2012-0051
三、土耳其文部分
AK Parti. [正義與發展黨] (2018, June 3). Cumhurbaşkanı Erdoğan’ın Diyarbakır iftar programında yaptığı konuşmanın metni [總統艾爾多安於迪亞巴克爾開齋晚宴的演講全文]. Adalet ve Kalkınma Partisi. https://www.diyanet.gov.tr/tr-tr/Kurumsal/Detay/37118 （檢索日期：2025年5月30日）
Anadolu Ajansı. [土耳其國家通訊社] (2020, July 17). Cumhurbaşkanı Erdoğan, Ayasofya-i Kebir Cami-i Şerifi'nde Kur’an-ı Kerim okudu [總統艾爾多安在聖索菲亞大清真寺誦讀古蘭經]. Anadolu Ajansı. https://www.aa.com.tr/tr/ayasofya-camii/cumhurbaskani-erdogan-ayasofya-i-kebir-cami-i-serifinde-kuran-i-kerim-okudu/1920908 （檢索日期：2025年5月30日）
Anadolu Ajansı. [土耳其國家通訊社] (2021, December 31). Cumhurbaşkanı Erdoğan'dan yeni yıl mesajı: Ülkemizi dünyanın en büyük 10 ekonomisi arasına sokmayı taahhüt ediyoruz. [艾爾多安總統新年賀詞：我們致力於讓我國晉升世界十大經濟體之列] https://www.aa.com.tr/tr/politika/cumhurbaskani-erdogandan-yeni-yil-mesaji-ulkemizi-dunyanin-en-buyuk-10-ekonomisi-arasina-sokmayi-taahhut-ediyoruz/2461881
Anadolu Ajansı. [土耳其國家通訊社] (2018, March 11). Cumhurbaşkanı Erdoğan: Enflasyonun anası da babası da faizdir. [總統艾爾多安表示：通貨膨脹的根原就是高利率] https://www.aa.com.tr/tr/turkiye/cumhurbaskani-erdogan-enflasyonun-anasi-da-babasi-da-faizdir/1104752 （檢索日期：2025年5月30日）
Adalet ve Kalkınma Partisi. (2002). AK Parti Programı [正義與發展黨黨綱]. Retrieved February 6, 2010, from Wayback Machine: https://web.archive.org/web/20100206152254/http://www.akparti.org.tr/vi-dis-politika-_79.html?pID=50 （檢索日期：2025年5月30日）
BBC Türkçe. (2018, August 11). ABD'den Türkiye'ye yeni yaptırımlar: Çelikte gümrük vergisi artışı 13 Ağustos'ta yürürlüğe giriyor. [美國對土耳其實施新制裁：鋼鐵關稅上調8月13日生效] https://www.bbc.com/turkce/haberler-dunya-45154717（檢索日期：2025年5月30日）
Cumhurbaşkanlığı İletişim Başkanlığı. [土耳其總統府通訊署] (2022, March 1). Rusya-Ukrayna Krizi Sürerken Türkiye Boğazlardan Savaş Gemilerinin Geçişini Engelledi [俄烏危機持續，土耳其禁止軍艦通過海峽]. https://www.iletisim.gov.tr/turkce/dis_basinda_turkiye/detay/rusya-ukrayna-krizi-surerken-turkiye-bogazlardan-savas-gemilerinin-gecisini-engelledi（檢索日期：2025年7月20日）
Çaha, Ö., & Baykal, Ö. (2017). Milli Görüş Hareketinin Kuruluşu: Türk Siyasetinde Milli Nizam Partisi Deneyimi. [民族願景運動的創立：土耳其政治中的國家秩序黨經驗] Gazi Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi, 19(3), 788-806.
Çulha, E. (2016). Türk-Rus ilişkilerinin kronolojisi(1991-2017). [土耳其與俄羅斯關係年表1992-2017]. Marmara Türkiyat Araştırmaları Dergisi, 3(2), 287-298.
Diyanet İşleri Başkanlığı. [宗教事務總署] (2024, May 16). Cumhurbaşkanı Erdoğan: “Hiç şüphesiz dinimiz emin ellerdedir” [總統艾爾多安：毫無疑問，我們的宗教掌握在安全的手中]. T.C. Diyanet İşleri Başkanlığı. https://www.diyanet.gov.tr/tr-tr/Kurumsal/Detay/37118 （檢索日期：2025年5月30日）
Türkiye Cumhuriyeti Cumhurbaşkanlığı. [土耳其總統府] (n.d.). Recep Tayyip Erdoğan: Biyografi.[艾爾多安：傳記] https://tccb.gov.tr/receptayyiperdogan/biyografi/ （檢索日期：2025年5月30日）
TRT Haber（2020, September 28）. Cumhurbaşkanı Erdoğan: Azerbaycan topraklarına saldıran Ermenistan'ı bir kez daha kınıyorum. [總統艾爾多安：我再次譴責亞美尼亞襲擊亞賽拜然領土] https://www.trthaber.com/haber/gundem/cumhurbaskani-erdogan-azerbaycan-topraklarina-saldiran-ermenistani-bir-kez-daha-kiniyorum-519239.html （檢索日期：2025年5月29日）
TRT Haber. (2018, July 18). ABD'li Rahip Brunson için yapılan itiraz reddedildi. [美國牧師布朗森的上訴被駁回] https://www.trthaber.com/haber/gundem/abdli-rahip-brunson-icin-yapilan-itiraz-reddedildi-377962.html （檢索日期：2025年5月29日）
TRT Haber. (2016, August 23). Cumhurbaşkanı Erdoğan’a duyulan güven zirvede. [民眾對總統艾爾多安的信任達到最高點] https://www.trthaber.com/haber/turkiye/cumhurbaskani-erdogana-duyulan-guven-zirvede-267799.html （檢索日期：2025年7月20日）
Erdoğan, R. T. (2019). Cumhurbaşkanı Erdoğan 6. Din Şûrası'nın kapanış programında konuştu [總統艾爾多安在第六屆宗教會議閉幕式上發表談話]. Türkiye Cumhuriyeti Diyanet İşleri Başkanlığı. https://diyanet.gov.tr/tr-TR/Kurumsal/Detay/26147 （檢索日期：2025年5月30日）
Erdoğan, R. T. (2023, June 28). Kurban Bayramı mesajı [宰牲節賀詞]. Türkiye Cumhurbaşkanlığı. https://www.tccb.gov.tr/basin-aciklamalari/365/147590/kurban-bayrami-mesaji- （檢索日期：2025年5月30日）
Erşen, E. (2016). Suriye sorunu gölgesinde Türkiye-Rusya ilişkilerinde normalleşme süreci. [在敘利亞問題陰影下的土耳其－俄羅斯關係正常化進程] Marmara Türkiyat Araştırmaları Dergisi, 3(2), 153–171.
Euronews. (2019, January 1). Türk Lirası'nın çalkantılı 2018 performansı.[ 2018年土耳其里拉的動盪表現] https://tr.euronews.com/business/2019/01/01/turk-lirasinin-calkantili-2018-performansi （檢索日期：2025年5月29日）
İletişim Başkanlığı. [土耳其總統府傳播局] (2024, Nisan 9). Cumhurbaşkanı Erdoğan’dan Ramazan Bayramı mesajı [總統艾爾多安的開齋節賀詞]. T.C. Cumhurbaşkanlığı İletişim Başkanlığı. https://www.iletisim.gov.tr/turkce/haberler/detay/cumhurbaskani-erdogandan-ramazan-bayrami-mesaji-09-04-24 （檢索日期：2025年5月30日）
Türkmen, M. (2021). 1 Mart Tezkeresi Bağlamında Türkiye’nin Irak Politikası. [2003年3月1日議案為背景的土耳其伊拉克政策] Bölgesel Araştırmalar Dergisi, 5(1), 185–212. https://dergipark.org.tr/tr/pub/bader/issue/62628/946014
T.C. Dışişleri Bakanlığı. [土耳其外交部] (2009). Türkiye Cumhuriyeti ile Rusya Federasyonu arasındaki ilişkilerin yeni bir aşamaya doğru ilerlemesi ve dostluğun ve çok boyutlu ortaklığın derinleştirilmesine ilişkin ortak bildiri. [關於推動土耳其共和國與俄羅斯聯邦關係邁上新階段、深化友好和多維度夥伴關係的聯合聲明] https://www.mfa.gov.tr/turkiye-cumhuriyeti-ile-rusya-federasyonu-arasindaki-iliskilerin-yeni-bir-asamaya-dogru-ilerlemesi-ve-dostlugun-ve-cok-boyutlu.tr.mfa （檢索日期：2025年5月29日）
T.C. Kültür ve Turizm Bakanlığı. [土耳其文化和旅遊部] (2019). Rusya Pazar Raporu Kitapçık 2019. [俄羅斯市場報告手冊] Ankara: Kültür ve Turizm Tanıtma Genel Müdürlüğü.
Yeni Şafak.[新黎明報] (2018, August 10). Onların doları varsa bizim Allah’ımız var. [他們有美元，我們有阿拉] https://www.yenisafak.com/gundem/onlarin-dolari-varsa-bizim-allahimiz-var-3388987 （檢索日期：2025年5月29日） |
| 描述: | 碩士
國立政治大學
外交學系戰略與國際事務碩士在職專班
112922024 |
| 資料來源: | http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0112922024 |
| 資料類型: | thesis |
| 顯示於類別: | [戰略與國際事務碩士在職專班] 學位論文
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