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| Title: | 台灣穩定房市政策對房價之影響
The Impact of Taiwan’s Housing Market Stabilization Policies on Housing Prices |
| Authors: | 洪嘉潁
Hong, Jia-Ying |
| Contributors: | 洪福聲
Hung, Fu-Sheng
洪嘉潁
Hong, Jia-Ying |
| Keywords: | 局部投影法
貸款成數
住宅市場
房地合一稅
貨幣政策
房價
Local Projection Method
LTV
Housing market
Capital gains tax
Monetary Policy
Housing Prices |
| Date: | 2025 |
| Issue Date: | 2025-08-04 12:50:00 (UTC+8) |
| Abstract: | 本研究探討台灣自 2010 年起實施之房市調控政策對房價的動態影響，聚焦於利率政策、選擇性信用管制、稅制改革與購屋補貼等工具，並運用 Jordà（2005）所提出之局部投影法（local projection method），結合 2001 年第 1 季至 2024 年第 4 季之季資料進行實證估計。結果顯示，升息將在兩年內使房價下跌約 1% 至 2%。雖然升息對房價具一定抑制效果，但利率作為總體性政策工具，其影響範圍涵蓋整體經濟，過度依賴升息可能衍生負面外部性。因此，政府更傾向透過具針對性的選擇性信用管制，聚焦於特定購屋族群或房地產交易行為，以達成更精準且副作用較小的市場干預目的。在信貸政策方面，第二戶限貸政策抑制房價最為有效且顯著，下調貸款成數一成可使房價下跌 6% 至 8%。相較之下，第三戶限貸與高價住宅限貸之效果較為遞延或不顯著。房地產稅制本研究僅採納房地合一稅1.0與2.0，由於奢侈稅已於 2016 年併入房地合一稅，故未另納入；囤房稅 2.0 則因樣本期數不足，僅採用囤房稅 1.0 作為穩健性檢查依據。結果顯示房地合一稅雖呈現負向影響，但統計上未達顯著水準；新青安購屋貸款政策則推升房價近 10%。為檢驗信貸政策估計結果之穩健性，本文將基準模型替換控制變數與增列變數。結果顯示主要政策效果方向一致，第二戶限貸效果最具穩健性。整體而言，具針對性之信貸管制相較利率政策更具抑價效果，信貸政策設計與涵蓋對象之精準性對於政策成效具有關鍵意涵。
This study analyzes the dynamic effects of Taiwan’s housing market regulations since 2010, focusing on interest rate policy, selective credit controls, tax reforms, and housing subsidies. Using Jordà’s (2005) Local Projection Method and quarterly data from 2001Q1 to 2024Q4, results show that a 25-basis-point rate hike reduces house prices by 1–2% within two years. The loan-to-value limit on second-home purchases proves most effective, with a 10% reduction linked to a 6–8% price drop. In contrast, the loan-to-value limit on third-home purchases and the loan-to-value limit on high-priced housing loans show weaker or delayed effects. Only the consolidated housing and land taxes (1.0 and 2.0) are considered; the luxury tax is excluded due to its merger in 2016, and the vacant home tax 2.0 due to limited data. Vacant home tax 1.0 is used for robustness checks. Replacing the rediscount rate with the secured loan rate confirms result robest. While interest rates affect house prices, their broad economic impact prompts governments to favor credit tools for more targeted housing interventions. |
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| Description: | 碩士
國立政治大學
經濟學系
112258012 |
| Source URI: | http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0112258012 |
| Data Type: | thesis |
| Appears in Collections: | [經濟學系] 學位論文
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