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    請使用永久網址來引用或連結此文件: https://nccur.lib.nccu.edu.tw/handle/140.119/158067


    題名: 土地系統動態變遷之因果與機制研究—追求經濟與環境永續發展之土地利用策略評估：連結全球與台灣可計算一般均衡經濟模型之應用分析
    Assessment of Land Use Strategies for Economic and Environmental Sustainable Development: Applications Linking Global and Taiwan Computable General Equilibrium Models
    作者: 李慧琳
    貢獻者: 經濟系
    關鍵詞: 土地利用變遷;生態系統服務;永續發展;可計算一般均衡模型;氣候變異;糧食安全;經濟全球化
    Land use change;ecosystem service;sustainable development;computable general equilibrium model;climate variability;food security;economic globalization
    日期: 2020-02
    上傳時間: 2025-07-16 11:13:19 (UTC+8)
    摘要: 土地為人類安身立命及經濟活動所需之必要投入，其亦提供非市場性無償的生態系統服務。土地利用變遷肇因於人口及經濟發展過程中對自然及人造環境所造成的影響。而經濟與社會的永續發展則需仰賴土地與環境生態系統服務之正常運作以持續提供良好的基礎環境。由國際科學理事會所倡議的Future Earth 計畫亦正積極鼓勵相關學術領域研究建構連結經濟與土地利用之整合空間決策支援系統，以協助各國在追求社會經濟發展過程中亦能在土地利用及規劃上採取正確且有效的策略，以確保環境的永續發展。國土狹小的台灣面臨經濟體的高度全球化、國內快速都市化、各土地需求部門間之競爭深化，土地利用及空間規劃得當對於台灣在追求經濟及環境的永續發展上益顯重要。全球化使得台灣本土的土地利用，不管是農業或是工業用途，將無法自外於國際經濟發展的影響。氣候變異所致農作物產量波動，或是國際間產業鏈因各國政策之故而進行重組，與全球經濟緊密連結的台灣經濟體都將深受影響。因此，本研究擬建構一連結全球與台灣經濟體之可計算一般均衡(Computable General Equilibrium, CGE)模型，描繪本國經濟體各生產及消費部門的活動及其引申的土地需求(包含農、工、商業及住宅用地需求)，並與整合計畫中各子計畫相互連結，組建呈現台灣特色的整合空間決策支援系統模型，以模擬台灣在面臨國內外自然及社會經濟情勢變遷情境下所受之經濟衝擊以及相應的土地利用變動，並評估相關因應政策對於降低經濟衝擊的效果。
    Land resources play a myriad of roles in human economic activities—it is a key input for production of all sorts of products and services and it also offers non-market free ecosystem services to support human amenity. Demographic and economic development has, to a large extent, been shaping the pattern of land use change. Sustainable development of the economy and the society requires land and ecosystem services to be well managed and functioning. The International Council for Science (ICSU) is promoting academic research on constructing the Integrated Spatial Decision Support Systems that link economic activities and land use change to assist nations in strategizing proper and effective land use policies for societal and economic sustainable development. With scarce land resources, Taiwan faces the challenges of increasing economic globalization, urbanization, intensifying competition between land uses. Global changes, biophysical or economy-wise, will be influencing the land use change, and thus its sustainable development, of the pro-growth and export-oriented Taiwan. In this project, we aim to construct a soft-linked global and Taiwanese computable general equilibrium modelling module, which describes the interconnection between producing and consuming sectors within and beyond the nations and the resulted land use change, and to couple with all subprojects in this integrated assessment project to form an Integrated Spatial Decision Support System for Taiwan. Our Integrated Spatial Decision Support System will serve as a land use policy assessment tool for Taiwan by simulating the consequences in economic growth and land use change under various scenarios of global and internal changes in biophysical, societal and economic environment, as well as coping strategies.
    關聯: 科技部, MOST105-2621-M004-002-MY3, 105.08-108.07
    資料類型: report
    顯示於類別:[經濟學系] 國科會研究計畫

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