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| Title: | 社子島開發案對當地與鄰近房價之影響
The Impact of Shezidao Development Project on Local and Neighboring Housing Prices |
| Authors: | 黃宗樺
Huang, Zong-Hua |
| Contributors: | 吳文傑
胡偉民
黃宗樺
Huang, Zong-Hua |
| Keywords: | 社子島
房價
特徵價格理論
樣條迴歸模型
多期差異中之差異法
空間迴歸模型
Shezidao
Housing Prices
Hedonic Price Theory
Spline Regression
Difference-in-Differences with Multiple Time Periods
Spatial Regression |
| Date: | 2025 |
| Issue Date: | 2025-07-01 14:20:16 (UTC+8) |
| Abstract: | 社子島位於臺北市士林區，地理上受淡水河與基隆河環繞，形成相對獨立的區塊，使其發展條件與一般舊市區有所不同。因地勢低窪與防洪需求限制，長期遭政府劃定為禁限建地區，導致區域發展嚴重落後。隨著都市更新議題興起，社子島再次成為重要點發展政策，其對鄰近地區房市之影響也備受關注。
本研究旨在探討社子島開發案推進階段對社子次分區及鄰近地區房價之影響，並評估開發之外溢效果。研究資料涵蓋2018年至2024年間臺北市及新北市房地交易案例，運用QGIS量子地理資訊系統計算距離變數，並結合特徵價格理論（Hedonic Price Theory）、樣條迴歸模型（Spline Regression）、多期差異中之差異法（Difference-in-Differences with Multiple Time Periods, DID-MTP）與空間迴歸模型（Spatial Regression）進行實證分析。實證結果顯示，社子島開發案影響鄰近房價之範圍為社子次分區外圍300公尺。此外，缺乏實質成果之政策對社子次分區與鄰近地區房價影響有限，政策配套交通建設施工期則對社子次分區與鄰近地區房價具有短期負面影響。
本研究結果補足社子島環境治理與都市發展交互影響之實證學術文獻，亦為未來相似低窪地區與相對獨立之區域開發政策規劃與不動產市場判斷提供了重要實證依據。
Shezidao, located in the Shilin District of Taipei City, is geographically surrounded by the Tamsui River and the Keelung River, forming a relatively isolated area. Due to its low elevation and associated flood prevention requirements, the area has long been designated by the government as a restricted construction zone, resulting in significant developmental stagnation. With the growing prominence of urban renewal initiatives, Shezidao has once again emerged as a focal point in development policy, raising concerns over its potential impact on neighboring housing prices.
This study aims to explore the impact of the advancement of Shezidao development project on housing prices within Shezi sub-district and neighboring areas, and to evaluate the spillover effects of the development. The research utilizes housing transaction data from Taipei City and New Taipei City between 2018 and 2024. Distance variables are calculated using Quantum Geographic Information System, and the analysis employs Hedonic Price Theory, Spline Regression, Difference-in-Differences with Multiple Time Periods, and Spatial Regression.
The empirical evidence indicates that the influence of Shezidao development project on housing prices extends to a 300-meter perimeter beyond Shezi sub-district. Furthermore, policy announcements lacking substantive implementation have limited impact on housing prices in both Shezi sub-district and neighboring areas. In contrast, the construction period of supporting transportation infrastructure projects exerts a short-term negative effect on housing prices in Shezi sub-district and neighboring areas.
This study contributes to the empirical research literature on the interaction between environmental governance and urban development in Shezidao. It also provides important empirical evidence for future policy planning and real estate market assessment in similar low-lying and relatively isolated regions. |
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| Description: | 碩士
國立政治大學
財政學系
112255015 |
| Source URI: | http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0112255015 |
| Data Type: | thesis |
| Appears in Collections: | [財政學系] 學位論文
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