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| Title: | 探討台日半導體供應鏈互補性： 以矽晶圓與積體電路貿易動態為例
Exploring the Complementarity of the Taiwan-Japan Semiconductor Supply Chain: Evidence from Trade Dynamics of Silicon Wafers and Integrated Circuits |
| Authors: | 林瑜靜
Lin, Yu-Ching |
| Contributors: | 吳文傑
周德宇
Wu, Wen-Chieh
Chou, Te-Yu
林瑜靜
Lin, Yu-Ching |
| Keywords: | 半導體供應鏈
互補性
矽晶圓
積體電路
COVID-19
Semiconductor Supply Chain
Complementarity
Silicon Wafers
Integrated Circuits
COVID-19 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| Issue Date: | 2025-07-01 14:20:02 (UTC+8) |
| Abstract: | 隨著半導體技術的快速發展及全球市場的劇烈變動，台日兩國在此產業中扮演著關鍵角色。台灣在積體電路（IC）製造、封裝與測試領域擁有強大的技術與產能，而日本則在矽晶圓、半導體設備及關鍵材料方面具有顯著優勢。兩國的產業結構展現出高度的互補性，形成合作雙贏的基礎。本研究旨在探討台灣與日本半導體供應鏈之互補性，並分析矽晶圓與積體電路貿易動態之變化特徵。
本文以2014年至2024年之台日貿易資料為基礎，分別建立兩組計量模型，探究台灣自日本進口矽晶圓之影響因素及其進口週期變動，以及汽車產業需求間對日本自台灣進口積體電路之推動關係。研究方法採用廣義最小平方法（GLS）進行實證估計，並納入匯率、GDP、疫情虛擬變數與多國來源變數，以提升模型解釋力。
實證結果顯示，台灣電子產品外銷訂單對矽晶圓進口呈正向且具滯後反應，最佳反應週期為7個月。匯率變動亦對進口行為產生負向影響，而來源國矽晶圓進口則與日本來源進口呈現互補關係。另在積體電路進口模型方面，日本汽車出口與內銷需求分別對3個月以及2個月以前的積體電路進口具顯著推動效果，韓國與中國來源之IC進口亦與台灣形成同步拉貨之互補關係。
綜合分析結果，台日半導體供應鏈呈現高度互補性，且企業在面對全球供應鏈中斷風險時，已採取多元化來源與延長備料期的調整策略。本研究結果可提供政策制定者及業界於規劃供應鏈韌性策略與強化台日合作關係時之重要參考。
With the rapid advancement of semiconductor technology and dramatic changes in the global market, Taiwan and Japan have each played critical roles in this industry. Taiwan possesses strong technical capabilities and production capacity in the fields of integrated circuit (IC) manufacturing, packaging, and testing, while Japan holds a significant advantage in silicon wafers, semiconductor equipment, and key materials. The industrial structures of the two countries exhibit a high degree of complementarity, forming a solid foundation for mutually beneficial cooperation.
This study aims to explore the complementarity between Taiwan and Japan in the semiconductor supply chain and analyze the changing characteristics of trade dynamics in silicon wafers and integrated circuits.
Based on trade data from 2014 to 2024, two econometric models are constructed: The first model investigates the factors influencing Taiwan's imports of silicon wafers from Japan and the changes in import cycles over time. The second model examines the relationship between demand from the automotive industry and Japan's imports of integrated circuits from Taiwan. The empirical analysis is conducted using the Generalized Least Squares (GLS) method. Key variables, including exchange rates, GDP, a COVID-19 dummy variable, and country-of-origin indicators, are incorporated to enhance the explanatory power of the models.
The empirical results show that Taiwan’s export orders for electronic products have a positive and lagged effect on silicon wafer imports, with the optimal response period identified as seven months. Exchange rate fluctuations exhibit a negative impact on import behavior, while silicon wafer imports from other source countries appear to have a complementary relationship with those from Japan. In the integrated circuit import model, Japan’s automobile exports and domestic sales have significant positive effects on IC imports from Taiwan, with lead times of approximately three and two months, respectively. Moreover, IC imports from Korea and China demonstrate synchronized procurement patterns with those from Taiwan, suggesting a complementary “parallel sourcing” relationship.
Overall, the findings suggest a strong complementarity in the Taiwan-Japan semiconductor supply chain. Enterprises have responded to global supply chain disruption risks by diversifying sources and extending procurement cycles. The results of this study provide valuable references for policymakers and industry stakeholders in planning supply chain resilience strategies and strengthening Taiwan-Japan industrial cooperation. |
| Reference: | 中文文獻
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英文文獻
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網路資源
[1] 台灣積體電路製造股份有限公司（2024）。2023年年報。取自 https://investor.tsmc.com/chinese/annual-reports
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[3] 富果研究部（2024）。【產業分析】日本「半導體與數位產業戰略」究竟會如何影響台日半導體業未來的發展？（二）。取自 https://blog.fugle.tw/2024-japansemi-report2
[4] 經濟部產業技術司（2023）。由日本半導體設備產業布局趨勢，初探臺日未來合作方。取自 https://www.moea.gov.tw/MNS/doit/industrytech/IndustryTech.aspx?menu_id=13545&it_id=546
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| Description: | 碩士
國立政治大學
財政學系
112255010 |
| Source URI: | http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0112255010 |
| Data Type: | thesis |
| Appears in Collections: | [財政學系] 學位論文
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