| 摘要: | 臺灣自2018年轉為高齡社會, 並推估2026年邁入「超高齡社會」(65歲以上人口達20%)。為因應高齡社會帶來的衝擊與符合老年人口的消費需求，政府於2015年開放銀行承辦"逆向房貸"之業務。然截至2018年止，僅有三千多件之核貸數，此市場規模無法使金融業者藉保險機制移轉相關風險(如長壽風險)。原因包括文化或社會差異(如遺產觀念)或財務觀念(如以房屋權益融資)等。然若多數人退休後守著房產省吃儉用留為遺產而不活化，不僅影響退休生活的長照需求，對銀髮族的消費動能及總體經濟的發展均有負向的影響。本研究擬先對臺灣的金融機構及退休者進行訪談, 了解市場接受度受限之原因;再以美國逆向房貸申辦及核准之統計相關數據為例，以時間序列模型進行分析來驗證變數間的相互影響關係。以美國高齡者平均消費數作為應變數，探討其受美國逆向房貸申請數,房價,股價,GDP等變數影響之程度。探討其與美國退休族群消費之相關性，及探討台灣逆向抵押貸款之推行是否能提振銀髮族之消費，期望藉強化相關之配套措施提升臺灣社會對於逆向抵押貸款之接受度，進而活絡臺灣之經濟，結論將可供政府擬定相關政策、金融機構承作逆向房貸與民眾抉擇時之有效參考。
As the medical technology continues to make progress, Taiwan entered “the aging society” in 1993 (i.e., 7% of the population are over 65 years old), and has turned into “aged society” in 2018 (i.e., 14% of the population are over 65 years old). Taiwan is expected to turn into “ultra-aged society” in 2026, (20% of the population are over 65 years old). To cope with the health care problems along with the longevity, the government introduced the “reverse mortgage”(RM) mechanism for the retired group to revitalize the real estate for their living and health care expenses, however, there are less than 4000 applications for the RM by the end of 2018. The limited scale of the RM markets will not be sufficient to provide the “risk transfer mechanism” for the lenders, especially for the longevity risk. If retired people continue to hold the real estate but reduce the consumption due to the decreased income, then the economy may be affected, and the health care problems may be aggravated. In light of the dilemma, this study intends to explore the problems causing the limited acceptance of the RM in Taiwan’s society. Factors attributing to the limited RM acceptance will be explored through interviews on financial institutions (e.g., banks and life insurance companies) and the elderly. In the empirical analysis, RM data in the US experiences will be collected and conducted through time series analysis for the effect of RM on the consumption volume of the retired people, together with other macro-economy variables (e.g., house prices, GDP, stock price, ..., etc.). The study will wrap up by deriving the policy implications from the results through the interviews, RM experiences and the empirical analysis in the US, e.g., the risk-transfer mechanism (or public/private insurance), tax deductibility for interests in the RM payment, and the periodical reappraisal of the real property for the equality of the RM borrowers. It is expected that the results and suggestions of this study can be adapted by the governments as the solutions of revitalizing the real property, stimulating the consumption of the retired group and solving the health care problems for the Taiwan’s society. |
