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    請使用永久網址來引用或連結此文件: https://nccur.lib.nccu.edu.tw/handle/140.119/157611


    題名: 從實價登錄之點擊率數據分析不動產市場
    Analyzing Housing Markets from the Number of Visits in the Actual Price Registration System
    作者: 林左裕
    貢獻者: 地政系
    關鍵詞: 實價登錄;大數據;網路;因果關係
    Actual Price Registration System;Big Data;Internet;Causality Relation
    日期: 2019-08
    上傳時間: 2025-06-30 13:55:00 (UTC+8)
    摘要: 不動產對於家庭、社會及國家經濟發展有顯著影響，然影響不動產市場的因素複雜並充滿不確定性。因此，如何準確分析及預測不動產市場走向，始終是業者、購屋者及學界所追求的目標，各類預估模型更是因應而生。以往用以分析及預測的各類房價指數或房價預估模型，所使用的數據無論是來自政府或是企業，多以過去的成交案例做為分析資料，而未考慮潛在之可能成交資訊、預期或偏好。故此類的預測模型在進行預測時，有其實用上的限制。 有鑑於網路使用廣泛及實價登錄系統建置後已累積大量的數據，本研究擬應用即時的大數據資料，探究可用於預測房價的領先指標。本研究預期透過實價登錄系統探討後台點擊率資料(如次數等)與不動產市場的交易價與量間之關係，根據模型建置之結果，若發現點擊率可成為房價先行指標，則將更進一步以此指標分析實價登錄是否有登錄不實(如俗稱之｢灌水」)之問題，本研究將用延遲期數變量進行雙向迴歸以確定因果關係的方向。 本研究期望在加入點擊率指標之變數後，能提升傳統計量模型對於不動產市場之預估能力，使大眾對於不動產市場資訊之瞭解能更為透明、精確。政府可透過監測此指標即時制定或修正政策，民間企業與民眾得以更精確且即時的掌握不動產市場脈動，提高其決策之正確性，進一步促進不動產市場更穩健之發展及達成更完善的住宅環境。
    Real estate has a significant impact on households, society and economic development. As the real estate market is full of various factors with uncertainty, it has attracted attention from different fields to predict the markets. There are various models of house price prediction, however, most of these predicting models are based on existing transaction data provided by the government or the enterprise. As a result, those models did not take into account of the possible transaction factors, i.e., expectations or preferences, leading to limitations as applying the forecasting models. This study intends to apply the visit numbers in “The Actual Price Registration System” (or the “System”) to develop models for forecasting house prices and transaction volume. In addition, if the click-through rate is found a new leading indicator for house prices or transaction volume, we will further apply the Granger causality to analyze the accuracy of the “System” since some registered deals are suspected to be artificially adjusted. This study aims to improve the predictive ability of the traditional model for the real estate market through the click-through index and enhance the transparency and accuracy of the “System”. By monitoring this indicator, the government can formulate or revise its policies immediately. In addition, the private enterprises and the public sector could have a better understanding of the housing markets, and therefore make correct decisions and increase the market stability and housing environment.
    關聯: 科技部, MOST107-2410-H004-179, 107.08-108.07
    資料類型: report
    顯示於類別:[地政學系] 國科會研究計畫

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