政大機構典藏-National Chengchi University Institutional Repository(NCCUR):Item 140.119/157413

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Title:	中國大陸經濟決策變遷及跨國比較：以核電政策為例 The Transition of Economic Policy-Making in China and Cross-National Comparison: the Case of Nuclear Power Policy
Authors:	蔡中民
Contributors:	政治系
Keywords:	中國大陸;經濟決策;核電政策;制度變遷;跨國比較 China;economic policy-making;nuclear power policy;institutional transition;cross-national comparison
Date:	2019-03
Issue Date:	2025-06-19
Abstract:	電力供給對中國大陸經濟成長非常重要，在考量各種發電方式的優缺點下，核電成了中國大陸近日發展的優先選項。即便於2011年日本福島核災後，亦未停下發展核電的腳步。然而，近年來卻因為民間反核聲浪高漲而改變其核電政策，以「內陸停工、沿海開放」為主，深刻危害地方政府與國有電力企業的利益。透過此一代表性經濟政策變遷，本計畫研究案旨在回答中國大陸經濟決策過程的實證經驗所反映出一個重要的理論性問題：「為什麼威權統治的中國大陸核電政策會受到社會偏好影響而改變？」本研究以新制度主義中制度變遷的解釋途徑分析中國大陸經濟決策體制，以「社會偏好與國家優先目標之一制性」及「官僚自主」為自變項，核電政策之變遷為依變項，在既有理論基礎上提出一個修正式經濟決策模型。本研究認為當社會偏好與國家優先目標一致時，國家更傾向於正面的政策回應，反之則是官僚自主決定。的發現將進一步與日本以及韓國進行跨國比較，探索「為什麼民主體制的日韓兩國核電政策能忽略社會偏好而由官僚自主決定？」，以中國大陸為起點，佐以日韓案例的交叉研究，本計畫將可以釐清在不同政治體制中，決策過程與社會偏好的互動是如何最終決定了經濟政策的產出。 Sufficient and reliable energy supply to generate electricity is vital for China’s economic development. Nonetheless, the major coal-fired generation confronts the environmental protection while hydropower generation encounters the predicament of cyclical water demand. In terms of cost and efficiency, wind power and solar power generation remain to require technological development in wind turbines and solar modules. Hence, nuclear power has become the best option for China’s electricity industry. Even after Japan’s Fukushima disaster in 2011, the Chinese government has not suspended its plan to develop nuclear energy. Recently, due to rising anti-nuclear protests, the Chinese state decided to suspend projects in the inland area but continue the projects in the coastal area. This project aims to answer a critical theoretical question derived from China’s empirical evidence that “why has an authoritarian regime modified its nuclear policies while confronting social preference?” The two independent variables are social preference and bureaucratic autonomy, and the dependent variable is transition in China’s nuclear policy. This project will further conduct comparative studies on the cases of Japan and South Korea to explore the question that “why has a democratic regime made its nuclear policy without considering social input?” This project analyzes the political logic of China’s shifting nuclear policy and demonstrates how authoritarian regime has accommodated the social preference during economic transition. It also illuminates how the interaction between the policy-making process and social preference has decided the economic operation under different political regimes.
Relation:	科技部, MOST104-2410-H004-108-MY3, 104.08-107.07
Data Type:	report
Appears in Collections:	[Department of Political Science] NSC Projects

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