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| Title: | 剖析碳價和石油衝擊對股市的影響: 基於 VAR 方法的實證分析
Dissecting the Impact of Carbon Price and Oil Shock on Stock Market: Evidence from VAR Approach |
| Authors: | 林庚鋒
Lin, Keng-Feng |
| Contributors: | 林士貴
林庚鋒
Lin, Keng-Feng |
| Keywords: | 碳排放交易系統
原油
外溢效果
向量自回歸
Emissions Trading System
Crude Oil
Spillover Effect
Vector Autoregression |
| Date: | 2024 |
| Issue Date: | 2025-03-03 13:50:14 (UTC+8) |
| Abstract: | 近年氣候變遷議題持續被社會各界所重視，諸多碳交易平臺在政府推動下應運而 生。過往文獻聚焦發展較為成熟且具有指標性的 EUETS，然而受限於 EUETS 初期的產業規範要求，相關研究主要著眼於源、鋼鐵、水泥、玻璃、制磚和造紙 等高能源密集產業以及於能源市場的互動。隨著碳交易所的逐漸成熟，其他產業 也將在未來參與碳市場交易。因此，本文探討更爲廣氾的產業範圍，透過向量自 回歸模型對碳市場、原油市場及股市進行外溢效果分析。本研究發現，碳報酬具 有顯著的自相關性。脈衝響應分析及外溢效果之驗證結果表明，碳市場對其他市 場的影響有限，而原油市場在系統內不論是對碳市場或是股市都具有顯著影響。 造成此差異之主要原因可能為目前碳市場涵蓋的產業較少，因此碳衝擊仍難以對
企業獲利造成實質變化。
Climate change has garnered increasing attention from various sectors of society, leading to the emergence of numerous carbon trading platforms driven by government initiatives. Previous literature has focused on the more developed and benchmark- setting EU ETS. However, due to the initial industry regulations, related research primarily concentrated on high energy-intensive industries such as sources, steel, cement, glass, brick manufacturing, and paper production, as well as their interactions within the energy market. With carbon exchanges developing, more industries are expected to participate in the carbon market in the future. This study explores a broader range of industries and conducts a spillover effect analysis on the carbon market, crude oil market, and stock market by using a vector autoregression (VAR) model. The study finds that carbon returns exhibit significant autocorrelation. The results of impulse response analysis and spillover effect examination indicate that the carbon market has limited impact on other markets, while the crude oil market significantly affects other two markets. The primary reason for this difference may be that the current carbon market covers fewer industries, making it difficult for carbon shocks to cause substantial changes in corporate profitability. |
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| Description: | 碩士
國立政治大學
金融學系
111352031 |
| Source URI: | http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0111352031 |
| Data Type: | thesis |
| Appears in Collections: | [金融學系] 學位論文
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