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Title:	因果推論在政治學的發展與應用：以調查實驗為例 Development and Application of Causal Inference in Political Science: A Case Study of Survey Experiments
Authors:	黃紀 Huang, Chi
Contributors:	政治系
Keywords:	因果推論;實證政治研究;調查實驗;短文實驗;聯合實驗 Causal inference;Empirical political research;Survey experiments;Vignette experiments;Conjoint experiments
Date:	2024-09
Issue Date:	2024-12-12
Abstract:	「反事實因果推論模型」在社會科學研究中掀起了一場「可信度革命」，政治學自不例外。本文的目的，在回顧本世紀以來因果推論的黃金標準──實驗法──與傳統之調查研究結合而成之「調查實驗」，在政治學的快速發展與應用。政治學在實驗法的發展與應用起步雖然較慢，但2000年之後，實驗法開始躋身為政治學實證研究的主流之一，2010之後更是呈快速成長，其中尤以調查實驗脫穎而出。本文聚焦於近十餘年來，政治學調查實驗中處理多面向因素的兩種實驗設計：短文實驗（vignette experiment）與聯合實驗（conjoint experiment），說明其研究設計之結構與應用。檢視近十年發展與應用最快速的聯合實驗，第一階段的可信度革命在確立因果推論的內在效度方面，已推陳出新。展望未來之發展與應用，勢必朝推廣因果關係之外在效度上力求突破。 The "counterfactual model of causal inference" has sparked a "credibility revolution" in social science research, and political science is no exception; its development has been rapid. The purpose of this article is to review the "gold standard" of causal inference-experimental methods-and their integration with traditional survey methods to form "survey experiments". Although political science had a slower start in the development and application of experimental methods, after the year 2000, experimental methods began to emerge as one of the mainstream approaches in empirical political research. Post-2010, it experienced explosive growth, with survey experiments standing out. This article focuses on the past decade, exploring two types of experimental designs in political science survey experiments that deal with multiple factors: vignette experiments and conjoint experiments. It elucidates their research design structures and applications. By examining the design and analysis of conjoint survey experiments, which have seen the fastest development and application in the past decade, it is argued that the first phase of the credibility revolution has been overwhelmingly successful in establishing the internal validity of causal inferences. Looking ahead to future development and application, it is imperative to build on this success and strive to break through in the external validity of causal relationships.
Relation:	中國統計學報, Vol.62, No.3, pp.156-196
Data Type:	article
Appears in Collections:	[Department of Political Science] Periodical Articles

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