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    題名: 論俄羅斯對白俄羅斯威權存續的影響 ──連結與籌碼的視角
    Russia’s Impacts on the Persistence of Belarusian Authoritarian Regime: A Perspective from Linkage and Leverage Theory
    作者: 蔡媚如
    Tsai, Mei-Ru
    貢獻者: 連弘宜
    Lien, Hong-Yi
    蔡媚如
    Tsai, Mei-Ru
    關鍵詞: 威權支持
    威權化
    俄羅斯
    普丁
    盧卡申科
    Autocratization
    Autocracy support
    Russia
    Putin
    Lukashenko
    日期: 2023
    上傳時間: 2024-12-02 11:23:58 (UTC+8)
    摘要: 本文希望透過Levitsky及Way所提出的「連結與籌碼」理論探討俄羅斯如何以外部行為者的身分影響白俄羅斯國內行為者的權力、鞏固白俄羅斯的威權政體，以及白俄羅斯有多依賴俄羅斯對其威權政體的支持。根據Way 的研究，威權政體的穩定性取決於三項要素：「執政黨的力量」、「國家的強制力」以及「國家對財富的掌控」，因此本文選擇檢視俄白兩國之間的政治及經濟連結是否能強化盧卡申科政權的這三項要素。另外，Risse 與Babayan的研究中指出外部行為者無法在國內缺乏對民主／威權的偏好的前提下，使該國民主化／威權化，因此筆者也將探討白俄羅斯民眾是否有對威權的偏好，以及該偏好從何而來。
    在政治連結上，俄國主要透過強化國家強制力的方式增加白俄羅斯非自由派行為者的權力，包含透過區域組織打擊「恐怖份子」以及情報單位合作等。經濟連結上，則透過能源補貼、經濟援助及區域組織的貸款維持白俄羅斯擁有足夠的經濟租，這些經濟租再透過白俄羅斯缺乏改革的經濟體制強化政治菁英對國家財富的控制力，進而鞏固支持群眾並維持社會契約的穩定。而白俄羅斯民眾對於威權的偏好可能來自缺乏清晰國族意識的影響：蘇聯解體後，因為白俄過去的歷史發展不利於發展民族意識，而缺乏清晰的國族認同，再加上盧卡申科政策的影響，使得許多人對俄羅斯，甚至是蘇聯有所偏好，所以對於俄國的威權、保守價值的提倡沒有強烈的反感。
    This article aims to explore how Russia consolidates Belarus's authoritarian regime and how dependent Belarus is on Russia's support for its authoritarian regime through the "linkage and leverage" theory proposed by Levitsky and Way.
    The stability of authoritarian regimes depends on three factors: "the strength of the ruling party," "the state's coercive power," and "the state's control over wealth." Therefore, this article examines whether the political and economic linkages between Russia and Belarus can strengthen these three factors of Lukashenko's regime. Additionally, Risse and Babayan's research indicates that external actors cannot democratize or authoritarianize a country without domestic preferences for them. Thus, the author will also explore whether the Belarusian people have a preference for authoritarianism and where this preference originates.
    Politically, Russia mainly increases the power of non-liberal actors in Belarus by strengthening the state's coercive power. Economically, Russia maintains “economic rents” for Belarus through energy subsidies, economic aids and loans from regional organizations. These rents, through Belarus's unreformed economic system, enhance the political elite's control over national wealth, thereby consolidating support and maintaining the stability of the social contract. The Belarusian people's preference for authoritarianism may stem from the lack of national consciousness. After the dissolution of the USSR, Belarusians did not have a clear national identity since the historical development was not conducive to the development of one. Coupled with the influence of Lukashenko's policies, many people have a preference for Russia, and the USSR, and thus do not have a strong aversion to Russia's conservative values.
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    三、俄文部分
    網路資料
    «Встреча с Министром Обороны России Сергеем Шойгу,» Официальный интернет-портал Президента Республики Беларусь, <https://president.gov.by/ru/events/vstrecha-s-ministrom-oborony-rossii-sergeem-shoygu> (September 16, 2020).
    «ЕАБР предоставил Банку развития Республики Беларусь кредитную линию на 20 млн долларов на цели торгового финансирования,» Евразийский банк развития (ЕАБР), <https://eabr.org:443/press/releases/eabr-predostavil-banku-razvitiya-respubliki-belarus-kreditnuyu-liniyu-na-20-mln-dollarov-na-tseli-to/> (November 25, 2016).
    «ЕАБР предоставил Банку развития Республики Беларусь кредитную линию на 20 млн долларов на цели торгового финансирования, » Евразийский банк развития (ЕАБР), <https://eabr.org:443/press/releases/eabr-predostavil-banku-razvitiya-respubliki-belarus-kreditnuyu-liniyu-na-20-mln-dollarov-na-tseli-to/> (November 25, 2016).
    «Заявление Международных Наблюдателей От Содружества Независимых Государств По Результатам Наблюдения За Подготовкой и Проведением Выборов Президента Республики Беларусь От 19 Марта 2006 Года,» Исполнительный комитет содружества независимых государств, <https://cis.minsk.by/page/5624> (2006).
    «Заявление Миссии Наблюдателей От СНГ По Результатам Наблюдения За Подготовкой и Проведением Выборов Президента Республики Беларусь,» Исполнительный комитет содружества независимых государств, <https://cis.minsk.by/news/5629/zaavlenie-missii-nabludatelej-ot-sng-po-rezultatam-nabludenia-za-podgotovkoj-i-provedeniem-vyborov-prezidenta-respubliki-belarus> (2015).
    «Заявление Миссии наблюдателей от Содружества Независимых Государств по результатам наблюдения за подготовкой и проведением выборов Президента Республики Беларусь, состоявшихся 9 августа 2020 года», Исполнительный Комитет СНГ, <https://cis.minsk.by/news/15905/zajavlenie_missii_nabljudatelej_ot_sodruzhestva_nezavisimyh_gosudarstv_po_rezultatam_nabljudenija_za_podgotovkoj_i_provedeniem_vyborov_prezidenta_respubliki_belarus_sostojavshihsja_9_avgusta_2020_goda> (20 августа, 2020)
    «Заявление Миссии Наблюдателей От Содружества Независимых Государств По Результатам Наблюдения За Подготовкой и Проведением Выборов Президента Республики Беларусь,» Исполнительный комитет содружества независимых государств, <https://cis.minsk.by/page/18724> (2010).
    «Итоговые данные переписей населения Республики Беларусь,» Национальный статистический комитет Республики Беларусь, <https://census.belstat.gov.by/> (2019)
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    «Концепция Внешней Политики Российской Федерации,» Министерство иностранных дел Российской Федерации, <https://www.mid.ru/ru/foreign_policy/official_documents/1538901/> (December 1, 2016).
    «Концепция Национальной Безопасности Российской Федерации (Утратила Силу),» Министерство иностранных дел Российской Федерации, <https://www.mid.ru/ru/foreign_policy/official_documents/1737121/?lang=ru> (January 10, 2000).
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    «О РОССИЙСКО-БЕЛОРУССКИХ КОНСУЛЬТАЦИЯХ,» Министерство Иностранных Дел Российской Федерации, <https://www.mid.ru/ru/foreign_policy/news/1697941/> (January 15, 2004).
    «Перечень Организаций и Физических Лиц, Причастных к Террористической Деятельности,» Комитет Государственной Безопасности Республики Беларусь, <http://www.kgb.by/ru/perechen-inf-ru/> (2021).
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    Секретариат ОДКБ, «Перечень Организаций и Физических Лиц, Причастных к Террористической Деятельности в Республике Беларусь,» Организация Договора о коллективной безопасности, <https://antiterror.odkb-csto.org/news/perechen-organizatsiy-i-fizicheskikh-lits-prichastnykh-k-terroristicheskoy-deyatelnosti-v-respublike/#loaded> (September 1, 2021).
    描述: 碩士
    國立政治大學
    外交學系
    109253012
    資料來源: http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0109253012
    資料類型: thesis
    顯示於類別:[外交學系] 學位論文

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