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    题名: 中國「一帶一路」在歐洲巴爾幹半島國家的政治影響力分析
    The Political Influence of China's Belt and Road Initiative in the Balkans
    作者: 鄭庭薇
    CHENG, TING-WEI
    贡献者: 薛健吾
    Hsueh, Chien-Wu
    鄭庭薇
    CHENG, TING-WEI
    关键词: 巴爾幹半島
    一帶一路
    中國影響力
    擴大政策
    抗衡與扈從
    The Balkans
    Belt and Road Initiative
    China Influence
    Enlargement
    Balance or Bandwagon
    日期: 2024
    上传时间: 2024-09-04 15:54:06 (UTC+8)
    摘要: 本文以巴爾幹半島歐盟候選國家:塞爾維亞、蒙特內哥羅、波赫、阿爾巴尼 亞和北馬其頓等 5 國作為研究對象,探討中國經濟資源投入是否影響歐盟候選國 與歐盟之間關係。藉由個案討論,本文發現申請入盟的巴爾幹國家在不同程度的 中國投資下,當該國跟歐盟關係比較融洽時,該國在中國「一帶一路」倡議下的 投資紅利轉換為中國政治影響力的情況比較不明顯;相反的,當該國與歐盟關係 存在衝突時,中國對該國的投資影響以及所轉換的政治影響力就比較明確。當該 國無法從原本的強權(歐盟)獲得足夠資源的話,則有可能靠近另一個大國(中 國)以爭取更多的資源,並且本文發現與歐盟關係較融洽的國家經濟交往仍以歐 盟為主,中國影響力有限;然而,與歐盟關係不這麼融洽的國家,可能會引入中 國的經濟資源以平衡歐盟對該國的壓力,連帶地中國影響力也會增加。
    This paper focuses on the EU candidate countries in the Balkans: Serbia, Montenegro, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Albania, and North Macedonia. These countries exhibit varying degrees of economic engagement with China. Through case studies, this paper analyzes the relationships between these Balkan countries, the EU, and China, in the context of China’s differing levels of investment. The paper posits that when a country maintains a harmonious relationship with the EU, the political influence of China’s Belt and Road Initiative investments is less evident. Conversely, when there is conflict in the relationship with the EU, China’s investment and resulting political influence become more pronounced. If a country cannot secure sufficient resources from the EU, it may turn to China for additional resources. The study finds that countries with better relationships with the EU predominantly engage economically with the EU, limiting China’s influence. However, countries with less favorable relationships with the EU tend to attract Chinese economic resources to counterbalance EU pressures, thereby increasing China’s influence.
    參考文獻: 中文部分
    一、 官方文件
    中國外交部,2022,〈中國—中東歐國家合作〉,《中國外交部》,https://
    www.mfa.gov.cn/web/gjhdq_676201/gjhdqzz_681964/zgzdogjhz/1206x0_
    679932/,查閱時間:2022年11月30日。

    二、 專書
    林詩凱、廖坤榮,2018,《抗衡或扈從—東南亞國家對中國戰略的回應》。台北:翰蘆圖書。
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    徐剛,2016《巴爾幹地區合作與歐洲一體化》。北京:社會科學文獻出版社。

    三、 專書論文
    廖舜右,2016,〈現實主義典範的緣起與內涵〉。張登及、張亞中主編,《國 濟 濟關係總論》。新北:揚智文化事業股份有限公司。頁42-45。


    四、 期刊
    吳玉山,1997,〈抗衡或扈從:面對強鄰時的策略抉擇(上)〉,《問題與研究》,36(2):1-32。
    吳玉山,1997,〈抗衡或扈從:面對強鄰時的策略抉擇(下)〉,《問題與研究》, 36(3):61-80。
    況正吉,2003,〈歐盟東擴進程及其面臨之挑戰〉,《問題與研究》,42(5):25-54。
    邵允鍾,2018,〈從歐盟會員國憲政危機檢討哥本哈根政治標準執行上之缺失〉,《歐美研究》,48(1):139-193。
    陳欣之,2011,〈崛起, 挑戰與承繼霸權-崛起強權參與建構國際制度過程的觀察〉,《問題與研究》,50(4):63-88。
    陳麒安,2008,〈聯盟理論之研究:現實主義的觀點〉,《國際關係學報》,26: 133-167。
    楊三億,2002,〈後冷戰時期中、東歐地區權力結構分析〉,《問題與研究》, 41(2):89-103。
    楊三億,2017,〈歐洲中小型國家安全政策:策略選擇與轉型〉,《問題與研究》, 56(2):31-66。
    楊三億,2021,〈強權競爭下的中型國家安全策略:以波蘭與土耳其為例〉,《歐美研究》,51(2):311-355。
    葉錦娟,2008,〈從蒙特內哥羅獨立檢視歐盟的軟權力工具〉,《國際關係學報》26:101-132。
    劉復國,2012,〈歐債危機對美中歐盟關係變化之涵義〉,《全球政治論》,37:19-24。
    賴昀辰,2014,〈歐洲聯盟貿易政策的權力分析〉,《問題與研究》,53(1):99-123。
    薛健吾,2020,〈中國「一帶一路」在第一個五年的進展與影響(2013-2018)〉,《遠景基金會季刊》,21(2):1-53。
    薛健吾,2020,〈歷史的終結? 歐俄競爭下中東歐國家與俄國之間外交政策利益相似程度之變化 (2000~ 2018)〉,《問題與研究》,59(4):51-93。
    薛健吾,2022,〈北約對中戰略分析:[中俄關係]與[北約各國的國內政治]是兩大關鍵〉,《亞洲政經與和平研究》,10:29-40。
    薛健吾,2022,〈扈從、避險、抗衡、孤立?初探臺灣四種對中政策態度的民意基礎〉,《臺灣民主季刊》,19(1):83-133。
    蘇卓馨,2019,〈歐盟規範性權力在亞洲的試煉-以貿易議程為例〉,《全球政治評論》,65:57-79。
    蘇卓馨,2019,〈歐盟規範性權力與中國關係性權力在中東歐國家的實踐〉,《政治科學論叢》,81:69-103。
    蘇卓馨,2021,〈歐盟規範性權力與歐中投資協定談判〉,《問題與研究》,60(4): 107-138。
    蘇卓馨,2022,〈歐中體制競爭下的合作〉,《人文及社會科學集刊》,34(4):817-840。
    五、 網路資料
    BBC News,〈中國在巴爾幹投巨資 打造東南歐橋頭堡〉,查閱時間:2022/
    10/20,檢自:<https://www.bbc.com/zhongwen/trad/world-41678207>。
    BBC News,〈一帶一路進入巴爾幹 歐盟關注家門口的中國影響力〉,查閱時間:2022/11/23,檢自:<https://www.bbc.com/zhongwen/trad/world-55611457>。
    BBC News,〈「一帶一路」倡議十週年改變世界的成敗與未來〉,查閱時間:2022/11/25,檢自:<https://www.bbc.com/zhongwen/simp/chinese-news-6676
    2882>。
    BBC News,〈「歐洲最昂貴的公路」如何讓黑山人對中國看法兩極〉,查閱時間:2023/04/23,檢自:<https://www.bbc.com/zhongwen/trad/fooc-60441131>。
    BBC News,〈BBC俄烏戰爭:為什麼普京在這個歐洲小國仍有忠誠的支持者〉,查閱時間:2023/08/22,檢自:<https://www.bbc.com/zhongwen/trad/world
    -66264946>。
    BBC News,〈中國入世改變遊戲規則:西方的期盼和中國的衝擊〉,查閱時間:2023/05/23,檢自:<https://www.bbc.com/zhongwen/trad/business-59620392>。
    BBC NEWS 中文,〈中國光大收購阿爾巴尼亞機場運營權〉,查閱時間:2022/11/23,檢自:<https://www.bbc.com/zhongwen/trad/business/2016/10/161008_china_
    everbright_abania_airport>。
    BBC NEWS 中文,〈專訪阿利雅:從「同志加兄弟」到冤家對頭〉,查閱時間:2024/1/18,檢自:<https://www.bbc.com/zhongwen/trad/indepth/2010/06/100
    519_albania_alia>。
    人民網,〈推動共建絲綢之路經濟帶和 21 世紀海上絲綢之路的願景與行動〉,查閱時間:2022/11/15,檢自:<http://ydyl.people.com.cn/BIG5/n1/2017/04
    25/c411837-29235511.html>。
    中央社,〈波羅的海3國全退出中國與中東歐合作機制 捷克可能跟進〉,查閱時間:2023/04/25,檢自:<https://www.cna.com.tw/news/aopl/202208120007.
    aspx>。
    法國國際廣播電台,〈2020年中國超越美國成為歐盟最大的貿易夥伴〉,查閱
    時間:2023/04/21,檢自:<https://www.rfi.fr/tw/%E6%AD%90%E6%B4%B2/
    20210215-2020%E5%B9%B4%E4%B8%AD%E5%9C%8B%E8%B6%85%
    E8%B6%8A%E7%BE%8E%E5%9C%8B%E6%88%90%E7%82%BA%E6%
    AD%90%E7%9B%9F%E6%9C%80%E5%A4%A7%E7%9A%84%E8%B2%
    BF%E6%98%93%E5%A4%A5%E4%BC%B4>。
    法國國際廣播電台,〈立陶宛退出17+1 呼籲它國跟進中國中東歐合作機制斷鏈〉,查閱時間:2023/04/28,檢自:<https://www.rfi.fr/tw/%E4%B8%AD%E5%
    9C%8B/20210522-%E7%AB%8B%E9%99%B6%E5%AE%9B%E9%80%
    80%E5%87%BA17-1-%E5%91%BC%E7%B1%B2%E5%AE%83%E5%9C%
    8B%E8%B7%9F%E9%80%B2-%E4%B8%AD%E5%9C%8B%E4%B8%AD
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    英文部分
    一、 官方文件
    A Credible Enlargement Perspective for and Enhanced EU Engagement with the Western Balkans, European Commission, Retrieved March 14, 2023, from: https://op.europa.eu/en/publication-detail/-/publication/e3f0797b-28cb-11e8b5
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    A Chinese donation of protective medical equipment for the needs of the Army received, Retrieved March 12, 2023, from: https://mod.gov.mk/primopredavanje-donacija-od-nr-kina-14-07-2020/
    Agreement(s) between the Ministry of National Defence of the People’s Republic, Retrieved February 11, 2024, from: https://www.mfa.rs/sites/default/files/inline
    -files/kina.pdf
    Eu-Western Balkans Summit Thessaloniki, 21 June 2003, Retrieved May 12, 2024, from: https://ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/detail/en/PRES_03_163
    Joint Communication to the European Parliament and the Council, EU-China – A Strategic Outlook, Retrieved March 12, 2023, from: https://op.europa.eu/en
    /publication-detail/-/publication/3a5bf913-45af-11e9-a8ed-
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    Chang, V. K., & Pieke, F. N. 2018. “Europe’s engagement with China: shifting Chinese views of the EU and the EU-China relationship.” Asia Europe Journal, 16(4):317-331.
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    Chirathivat, S., & Langhammer, R. J. 2020. “ASEAN and the EU Challenged by ‘Divide and Rule’ Strategies of the US and China Evidence and Possible Reactions.” International Economics and Economic Policy, 17(3):659-670.
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    Taylor, M. R. 2022. “Inside the EU–China Human Rights Dialogue: assessing the practical delivery of the EU’s normative power in a hostile environment.” Journal of European Integration, 44(3):365-380.
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    三、網路資料
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    描述: 碩士
    國立政治大學
    外交學系戰略與國際事務碩士在職專班
    108922017
    資料來源: http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0108922017
    数据类型: thesis
    显示于类别:[戰略與國際事務碩士在職專班] 學位論文

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