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Title:	北韓核武導彈戰略研究—戰爭邊緣策略分析 A Study on North Korea's Nuclear Weapon and Tactical Ballistic Missile Strategy: Brinkmanship Strategy Analysis
Authors:	戴慎昌 Dai, Sheng-Chang
Contributors:	邱坤玄戴慎昌 Dai, Sheng-Chang
Keywords:	北韓核武導彈戰略戰爭邊緣策略核子擴散現實主義安全困境嚇阻理論博弈理論
Date:	2024
Issue Date:	2024-09-04 15:53:44 (UTC+8)
Abstract:	本研究探討北韓的核武導彈戰略，聚焦於其戰爭邊緣策略（Brinkmanship Strategy）及其對國際安全、地區穩定、核子擴散和經濟制裁與人道影響的多重面向。北韓的核武計畫不僅對東北亞構成重大威脅，亦對全球核不擴散體系帶來挑戰。在俄烏戰爭背景下，北韓與俄羅斯關係的強化進一步增加了國際社會的戰略壓力。北韓透過核試爆和導彈試驗行為，來實現其外交和內政目標，本研究藉以揣測北韓領導人的真實意圖，並提供國際社會應對北韓威脅的策略方法。本研究透過現實主義、安全困境、嚇阻理論和博弈理論等國際關係理論，分析北韓的行為模式和策略選擇。從歷史的軌跡發展，分為金日成、金正日和金正恩三個時期，並對每個時期的政策變化和戰略目標進行詳細分析。此外，也探討了北韓戰爭邊緣策略的發展歷史背景，主要集中在美朝框架協議、六方會談及朝鮮半島核問題的升級三個階段，同時也分析了各國對北韓核武能力之應對態度，包括美國、日本、南韓、中國和俄羅斯的立場及其政策反應。這些國家的反應是由安全關切、戰略利益和區域利益共同決定的，並反映了國際秩序的影響。北韓的核武和導彈發展對地區安全和國際核不擴散體系構成嚴重挑戰，並引發了周邊國家的軍備競賽和安全困境。
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Description:	碩士國立政治大學外交學系戰略與國際事務碩士在職專班 105922019
Source URI:	http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0105922019
Data Type:	thesis
Appears in Collections:	[Masters Program in Strategic and International Affairs] Theses

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