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| Title: | 利用合成控制法論證中國加入WTO的經濟影響
The economic impact of China's accession to the World Trade Organization: Evidence from synthetic control method |
| Authors: | 陳俊佑
CHEN, CHUN-YU |
| Contributors: | 楊子霆
Yang Tzu-Ting
陳俊佑
CHEN CHUN-YU |
| Keywords: | 合成控制法
中國加入世貿組織
中國經濟增長
synthetic control method
China’s WTO accession
China’s economic growth |
| Date: | 2024 |
| Issue Date: | 2024-09-04 15:19:01 (UTC+8) |
| Abstract: | 本文采用合成控制法（SCM）来驗證中国加入世贸组织與其经济增长的因果關係。此外，还研究了中国加入世贸组织對中国的关键经济指标的影响。用于衡量经济增长的主要结果变量是1992年至2007年期间的人均GDP累计增长率。研究结果显示，中国加入世贸组织对该国经济增长，即人均GDP增长率，产生了显著的积极影响。加入WTO對其餘个关键经济指标的影響有所不同：消费、投资、政府支出、净出口、进口、出口、贸易开放度和外国直接投资。值得注意的是，出口在所有时期都表现出显著的积极效果，而进口和贸易开放度仅在短期内表现出显著的积极效果。政府支出和消费显示出积极但不显著的影响。投资的结果在图形上显著，但安慰剂测试的结果不显著。
This paper employs the synthetic control method (SCM) to estimate the causal effects that China’s accession to the WTO has had on its economic growth. In addition, I also
investigate how China’s key economic indicator is impacted by the country’s WTO entry. The main outcome variable for economic growth is the cumulative growth rate of GDP per capita from 1992 to 2007. The study’s results demonstrate a significant positive effect of China’s WTO accession on the country’s economic growth, that is its GDP per capita growth rate. The impact varies across several key economic indicators: consumption, investment, government expenditure, net export, import, export, trade openness and foreign direct investment. Notably, exports exhibit significant
positive effects in all periods, while imports and trade openness show significant positive effects only in the short term. Government expenditure and consumption show
positive but insignificant effects. The investment results are graphically significant, whereas the placebo-test results are insignificant. |
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| Description: | 碩士
國立政治大學
亞太研究英語碩士學位學程(IMAS)
107926006 |
| Source URI: | http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0107926006 |
| Data Type: | thesis |
| Appears in Collections: | [亞太研究英語博/碩士學位學程(IDAS/IMAS)] 學位論文
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