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    題名: 中巴貿易對巴西經濟發展的影響：機遇還是威脅？
    The Impact of Sino-Brazilian Trade on Brazil Industrial Development: Opportunity or Threat?
    作者: 安德烈
    Dejuste, Andre Moraes
    貢獻者: 林左裕
    徐士勛
    -
    Tsoyu Calvin Lin
    Shih-Hsun Hsu
    Silvina Helena Galvao de Miranda
    安德烈
    Andre Moraes Dejuste
    關鍵詞: 巴西
    中國
    貿易
    工業
    農業
    製造業中間產品
    Brazil
    China
    Trade
    Industry
    Agriculture
    Manufactured Intermediary Goods
    日期: 2024
    上傳時間: 2024-09-04 15:18:37 (UTC+8)
    摘要: 工業部門在經濟發展中扮演著重要角色。然而在巴西，該部門的地位數十年來一直在下降，這在政治和學術界引發了廣泛討論。與此同時，自2013年起，中國成為巴西的主要貿易夥伴，佔巴西貿易總額的約17%，兩國之間的雙邊貿易量不斷增長，凸顯出中國對巴西經濟的重要性。本研究採使用自我迴歸落遲模型（ARDL），並利用1997年至2023年的季度數據評估中巴貿易對巴西工業部門的影響。研究結果表明，對中國農產品出口在短期內對巴西工業表現有積極影響，部分抵消了這種日益增長的貿易模式，所帶來的潛在出口“再初級化”負面影響。目前沒有證據表明中國製造業進口威脅到巴西的工業部門。然而，中間製成品的總進口對巴西該部門的工業發展產生了負面影響。在這背景下，巴西製造業面臨著機遇和挑戰，突顯出巴西政府需要進行戰略規劃，以駕馭這些複雜性，並最大化中巴貿易關係帶來的收益。
    The industrial sector plays a significant role in economic development. However, in Brazil, this sector has seen a decline in importance over decades, sparking debate in political and academic circles. Concurrently, since 2013, when China emerged as Brazil’s major trade partner - accounting for about 17% of Brazil’s total trade - the volume of bilateral trade between the two countries has continuously increased, emphasizing China’s growing significance to the Brazilian economy. This study uses an Autoregressive Distributed Lag Model (ARDL) with quarterly data from 1997 to 2023 to assess Sino-Brazilian trade impacts on Brazil’s industrial sector. Findings show that agricultural exports to China positively affect Brazilian industrial performance in the short run, partially offsetting potential exports’ re-primarization negative effects of this increasing trade pattern for Brazil. No evidence suggests that Chinese manufacturing imports threaten Brazil’s industrial segment. However, intermediary manufactured goods total imports negatively impact the industrial development of this sector in Brazil. This context presents both opportunities and challenges for the Brazilian manufacturing sector, highlighting the need for strategic planning by the Brazilian government to navigate these complexities and maximize the benefits of the trade relationship with China.
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    描述: 博士
    國立政治大學
    亞太研究英語博士學位學程(IDAS)
    102265510
    資料來源: http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0102265510
    資料類型: thesis
    顯示於類別:[亞太研究英語博/碩士學位學程(IDAS/IMAS)] 學位論文

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