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    Title: 臺灣地方首長選舉對於地方政府稅收預估的影響
    The Impact of Local Government Elections on Tax Revenue Forecast in Taiwan
    Authors: 曾庭琳
    Tzeng, Ting-Lin
    Contributors: 陳國樑
    羅時萬
    曾庭琳
    Tzeng, Ting-Lin
    Keywords: 地方財政
    稅收預測
    政府預算
    政治預測循環
    Local public finance
    Tax revenue forecasts
    Government budget
    Political forecast cycle
    Date: 2024
    Issue Date: 2024-09-04 14:44:53 (UTC+8)
    Abstract: 政府會根據收入預算數決定支出數額，因此收入的預測對政府財政政策的擬定具有決定性的影響。而稅課收入為政府收入的最主要來源，無論稅收被高估或是低估，失準的稅收估計都會影響政府施政。當稅收預測低估時，將限縮國家的資源規劃，並阻礙政策的推動；相反地，當稅收預測經常性地高估時，政府須以舉債彌補實際收入數不足之處，然而日漸增加的債務將使得政府財政結構更為脆弱。因此如何提升稅收預測準確性，對於國家財政而言係值得重視的課題。
    國內在稅收預測的討論聚焦於中央政府的預測技術，不僅地方政府的分析付之闕如，且近年來許多國際文獻指出，地方政府基於政治因素，會刻意操縱預測結果，然而國內關於影響稅收預測因素的研究亦相當有限。因此，本研究蒐集臺灣地方政府民國90年至民國111年之地方政府資料，利用固定效果模型和工具變數法，檢視分析臺灣地方首長選舉對於地方政府稅收預估的影響。
    迴歸結果顯示，臺灣地方政府在選舉年會顯著高估稅收預算，透過擴大政府支出，以期能提高勝選的機會。此外，本研究也發現在選舉年時，財政自主程度越高的地方政府，由於在稅收編列上具有更大的操控空間，越容易高估稅收。本研究也分別探討各稅目的預測情形，發現選舉年高估的現象主要來自土地增值稅、房屋稅、使用牌照稅。進一步分析選舉前一年及選舉後一年對於稅收預測誤差的影響，並未發現臺灣地方政府在選舉前一年有顯著的效果；反之，在選舉後一年時，則存在顯著稅收高估，但其高估程度小於選舉年，可能是由於選民已不能透過選票來影響執政者，因此使執政者降低高估預算的動機。
    The government determines expenditure levels based on budget revenue; thus, forecasted revenues have a crucial effect on fiscal policy. Tax revenues constitute the primary source of government income, and regardless of whether taxes are overestimated or underestimated, inaccurate tax estimates impact governmental operations. Underestimations constrain national resource planning and policy implementation. In contrast, frequent overestimation of tax forecasts requires the government to cover the shortfall through borrowing, progressively weakening the fiscal framework with mounting debt. Therefore, enhancing tax forecasting accuracy is critical for effective fiscal management.
    Domestic discussions on tax revenue forecasts primarily focus on the forecasting techniques of the central government. There is a notable lack of analysis from local governments, and recent international literature suggests that local governments may intentionally manipulate forecast results due to political considerations. Additionally, research within the country regarding the factors influencing tax revenue forecasts is relatively sparse. Therefore, this study collects data from local governments in Taiwan for the period 2001–2022, employing fixed effects models and the instrumental variable method to examine the impact of local government elections on tax revenue projections.
    The results indicate that local governments in Taiwan tend to overestimate tax revenue during election years and expand spending to increase their probability of reelection. In addition, we find that local governments with greater fiscal autonomy, which has a greater margin of maneuver lead to more optimistic forecasts in election years. This study also identifies that overestimation in election years primarily stems from land value increment tax, house taxes, and vehicle license tax. Analyzing forecast errors pre- and post-election in local governments reveals no significant effects in pre-election years. In contrast, there is significant overestimation in post-election years, though it is less than during election years, possibly because voters no longer hold sway over policymakers through voting, reducing the incentive for manipulating their tax estimate.
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    Description: 碩士
    國立政治大學
    財政學系
    111255011
    Source URI: http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0111255011
    Data Type: thesis
    Appears in Collections:[Department of Public Finance] Theses

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