Loading...
|
Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item:
https://nccur.lib.nccu.edu.tw/handle/140.119/153319
|
| Title: | 台灣總體政策對勞動市場影響之動態隨機一般均衡模型分析
Effects of Government Policy on the Labor Market: A Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium Analysis |
| Authors: | 陳俐安
Chen, Li-An |
| Contributors: | 朱琇妍
Chu, Shiou-Yen
陳俐安
Chen, Li-An |
| Keywords: | 動態隨機一般均衡模型
搜索與配對模型
勞動市場摩擦
財政政策
Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium model
Search and matching model
Labor market frictions
Fiscal policy |
| Date: | 2024 |
| Issue Date: | 2024-09-04 14:44:16 (UTC+8) |
| Abstract: | 勞動力做為重要生產要素與經濟發展息息相關，然而台灣勞動市場受限於法規，流動性相較商品與資金市場低，且面臨人口少子化與高齡化的結構性問題，加上價值觀念轉變與非典型就業形態興盛，增加勞工尋職的考量與議價能力，而勞動市場摩擦增加將可能對政府政策的執行與效果造成影響。本文建立一個動態隨機一般均衡模型（Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium Model, DSGE Model），加入勞動市場搜尋與配對設定（Search and Matching），引入失業、職缺發布成本與薪資議價等勞動市場摩擦，以模擬台灣勞動市場面對經濟衝擊與各項政府政策的影響。根據模擬結果，降低勞動市場摩擦有助於刺激產出與消費，並降低失業率與通膨。政府升息之貨幣政策因利息收入增加家計單位可支配所得反而提高消費，並透過影響預期利益導致薪資上升而惡化通膨。財政政策方面，調升消費稅、調降所得稅與增加政府支出均有利於增加產出並降低失業，然而政府支出增加與消費稅調升降低實質所得導致消費減少，而政府支出增加與所得稅調降增加資本財需求，推高邊際成本下造成通膨。
As a crucial factor of production, the labor force is intricately linked to economic development. However, Taiwan's labor market faces constraints due to regulatory restrictions and exhibits lower liquidity compared to other markets. Additionally, structural issues such as the declining birthrate, aging population, evolving values, and the rise of non-standard employment forms have exacerbated labor market frictions, potentially impacting the effectiveness of government policies. This paper develops a Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (DSGE) Model incorporating labor market search and matching mechanisms to simulate Taiwan's labor market. The model introduces frictions like unemployment, job vacancy posting costs, and wage bargaining. The findings suggest that reducing labor market frictions can stimulate economic activity by lowering unemployment and inflation. Monetary policy involving rising interest rates might boost consumption through increased interest income but could also worsen inflation due to higher wage rates, which are influenced by household expectations. Fiscal policies, such as increasing the consumption tax rate, lowering income tax rates, and expanding government expenditure, can enhance output and reduce unemployment. However, increased government spending and higher consumption taxes reduce real income, leading to decreased consumption, while higher government spending and lower income taxes boost demand for capital, raising marginal costs and contributing to inflation. |
| Reference: | 中央銀行（2023）。當前主要經濟體勞動市場變化對薪資、通膨之影響及貨幣政策展望。2023年9月23日。取自：https://knowledge.cbc.gov.tw/front/references/inpage/8672597E-2258-EE11-90F2-00505694F3B3
黃俞寧（2013）。動態隨機一般均衡架構在台灣貨幣政策制定上之應用。中央銀行季刊，35（1），3-34。
蔡宜展、姚睿、秦國軒、林世揚（2022）。建構中大型DSGE-VAR模型－台灣中長期經濟成長率預測。中央銀行季刊，44（2），27-69。
管中閔、印永翔、姚睿、黃朝熙、徐之強、陳宜廷（2010）。臺灣動態隨機一般均衡模型 (DSGE) 建立與政策評估。行政院經濟建設委員會。
Blanchard, O., & Galí, J. (2010). Labor markets and monetary policy : A new keynesian model with unemployment. American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, 2(2), 1-30.
Chin, K. & Huang, T. (2018). An Empirical Study of Taiwan’s Real Business Cycle. International Journal of Economics and Finance, 10(2), 124-132.
Christoffel, K., Kuester, K., & Linzert, T. (2005). The impact of labor markets on the transmission of monetary policy in an estimated DSGE model. IZA Discussion Paper No. 1902. Retrieved from Institute of Labor Economics. Available at: https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=876439
Christoffel, K., Kuester, K., & Linzert, T. (2009). The role of labor markets for euro area monetary policy. European Economic Review, 53(8), 908-936.
Chu, S. (2018). Macroeconomic policies and housing market in Taiwan. International Review of Economics & Finance, 58, 404-421.
Diamond, P. (1982). Aggregate demand management in search equilibrium. Journal of political Economy, 90(5), 881-894.
Faccini, R., & Yashiv, E. (2022). The importance of hiring frictions in business cycles. Quantitative Economics, 13(3), 1101-1143.
Fu, C., Lin, H., & Yang, S. (2018). Tax reform and the underground economy in Taiwan: A DSGE approach. Taiwan Economic Forecast and Policy, 49(1), 1-45.
Galí, J., Smets, F., & Wouters, R. (2012). Unemployment in an estimated New Keynesian model. NBER Macroeconomics Annual, 26(1), 329-360.
Gertler, M., Sala, L., & Trigari, A. (2008). An estimated monetary DSGE model with unemployment and staggered nominal wage bargaining. Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 40(8), 1713-1764.
Hall, R.(2005). Employment fluctuations with equilibrium wage stickiness. American Economic Review, 95(1), 50-65.
Hsu, C., & Tsai, Y.(2017). Inflation targeting, exchange-rate targeting monetary policies in an open new keynesian DSGE model. Korea and the World Economy, 18(2), 131-174.
Hwang, Y., & Ho, P. (2012). Optimal monetary policy for Taiwan: a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium framework. Academia Economic Papers, 40(4), 447.
Leeper, E., Plante, M., & Traum, N. (2010). Dynamics of fiscal financing in the United States. Journal of Econometrics, 156(2), 304-321.
Liao, E., & Teng, C.(2008). The effects of monetary policy: a DSGE model analysis of Taiwan. Applied Economics, 40(8), 1043-1051.
Lin, Y. (2021). Business cycle fluctuations in Taiwan—A Bayesian DSGE analysis. Journal of Macroeconomics, 70, 103-349.
Liu, Z., Miao, J., & Zha, T. (2016). Land prices and unemployment. Journal of Monetary Economics, 80, 86-105.
Lu, Z., & Kameda, K. (2024). Impact of fiscal policies on the labor market with search friction: An estimated DSGE model for Japan. Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, 72, 101315.
Mortensen, D. (1982). Property rights and efficiency in mating, racing, and related games. The American Economic Review, 72(5), 968-979.
Mortensen, D., & Pissarides, C.(1994). Job creation and job destruction in the theory of unemployment. The Review of Economic Studies, 61(3), 397-415.
Mortensen, D., & Pissarides, C. (1999). New developments in models of search in the labor market. Handbook of Labor Economics, 3, 2567-2627.
Pissarides, C.(1985). Short-run equilibrium dynamics of unemployment, vacancies, and real wages. The American Economic Review, 75(4), 676-690.
Pissarides, C.(2009). The unemployment volatility puzzle: Is wage stickiness the answer?. Econometrica, 77(5), 1339-1369.
Schorfheide, F. (2008). DSGE model-based estimation of the New Keynesian Phillips curve. FRB Richmond Economic Quarterly, 94(4), 397-433.
Smets, F., & Wouters, R. (2003). An estimated dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model of the euro area. Journal of the European Economic Association, 1(5), 1123-1175.
Stähler, N., & Thomas, C. (2012). FiMod—A DSGE model for fiscal policy simulations. Economic Modelling, 29(2), 239-261.
Teo, W. (2009). Estimated dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model of the Taiwanese economy. Pacific Economic Review, 14(2), 194-231. |
| Description: | 碩士
國立政治大學
財政學系
109255033 |
| Source URI: | http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0109255033 |
| Data Type: | thesis |
| Appears in Collections: | [財政學系] 學位論文
|
Files in This Item:
| File |
Description |
Size | Format | |
|---|
| 503301.pdf | | 7540Kb | Adobe PDF | 0 | View/Open |
|
All items in 政大典藏 are protected by copyright, with all rights reserved.
|
