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    Title: 住宅次市場間動態關係之探討 -以臺北市為例
    Dynamics of the Taipei Residential Housing Submarket
    Authors: 吳侲嶢
    Wu, Chen-Yao
    Contributors: 朱芳妮
    Chu, Fang-Ni
    吳侲嶢
    Wu, Chen-Yao
    Keywords: 次市場
    動態關係
    房價擴散
    漣漪效應
    Submarket
    Dynamics
    Housing Price Diffusion
    Ripple Effect
    Date: 2024
    Issue Date: 2024-09-04 14:27:30 (UTC+8)
    Abstract: 居住是每個人的基本需求，但隨著國內房地產市場價格近年來直線飆漲，買不起房已成為現今的普遍現象。面對高房價問題，我國政府也試圖透過政策抑制房價上漲，可成果卻不如預期。臺北市作為臺灣的首都，平均住宅價格長年位居全台之首，也是投資者青睞的區域。在國內過往的研究中，大多數都是探討空間或區域次市場的房價擴散關係，少有對於產品次市場之探討，然而產品次市場間的動態關係對於瞭解住宅市場變化也是極為重要的，因此本研究將以臺北市各行政區與三種住宅產品類型之住宅價格指數進行時間序列模型實證分析，藉由同時探討兩種不同類型次市場之動態關係，瞭解住宅各次市場間價格之傳遞關係。

    研究結果顯示，臺北市不同住宅產品(公寓、大樓及小宅)次市場間存在長期均衡關係，三者間有相互之動態關係。小宅、公寓對大樓之房價指數為單向因果關係，且其中小宅最容易受到外生變數之影響。而臺北市行政區空間次市場間之住宅價格，由大安區作為中心點，其正向房價衝擊會對其他行政區有正向之影響，顯著影響之時間點則因地理位置之不同而有所差異，即行政區間有漣漪效應之產生，本研究根據實證結果之分析，發現不論是以住宅產品類型劃分次市場，或以行政區劃分空間次市場，次市場之間具有價格動態影響關係。
    Having house is a basic need for everyone, but the domestic housing price has skyrocketed in recent years, the inability to afford a home has become a common phenomenon today.In order to cap rising housing prices, our government has introduced many housing policies, but the results have been less than expected. As the capital of Taiwan, Taipei City has long held the highest average housing prices in the country and it’s also a favored area for investors. In past domestic research, most experts have explored the diffusion of spatial or regional submarkets, with little discussion on the product submarket. However, the dynamic relationships of the product submarket are also crucial for understanding the housing market. Therefore, this study will conduct an empirical analysis of time series models on the housing price indices of various administrative districts and three types of residential products in Taipei City. By simultaneously exploring the dynamic relationships between two different types of submarkets, this study aims to understand the price diffusion relationships among different submarkets.

    The results of the study show that there is a long-term equilibrium relationship between different types of residential product submarkets (apartments, buildings, and small houses) in Taipei City. There are dynamic interactions among these three types. The housing price indices of small houses and apartments tend to influence the housing price index of buildings, and the small houses being the most susceptible to exogenous variables. According to the district empirical results, when Da'an District is the center of the housing prices ripple. It’s positive housing price shock has also caused positive housing price responses from other districts, but the timing of these significant impacts varies are based on geographical location, indicating a ripple effect among the districts. Based on the empirical analysis, this study finds that whether submarkets are divided by residential product types or by administrative districts, there are dynamic price relationships between submarkets.
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    Description: 碩士
    國立政治大學
    地政學系
    111257010
    Source URI: http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0111257010
    Data Type: thesis
    Appears in Collections:[Department of Land Economics] Theses

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