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    题名: 中國「夥伴關係外交」對「北約組織的聯盟緊密程度」之影響
    The impact of China’s “partnership diplomacy” on the cohesion of the NATO alliance
    作者: 劉家豪
    Liou, Chia-Hao
    贡献者: 薛健吾
    Hsueh, Chien-Wu
    劉家豪
    Liou, Chia-Hao
    关键词: 聯盟理論
    中國夥伴關係外交
    北約
    共同利益
    威脅認知
    Alliance Theory
    China's Partnership Diplomacy
    NATO
    Common Interests
    Threat Perception
    日期: 2024
    上传时间: 2024-09-04 14:23:29 (UTC+8)
    摘要: 在21世紀「夥伴關係外交」已逐漸取代傳統聯盟,成為炙手可熱的新外交工具。中國自1993年起,對外建立以自身為核心之夥伴關係網絡,且與過半的北約成員國建立夥伴關係。本文欲回答的研究問題是中國採取「夥伴關係外交」對「北約傳統聯盟體系」的穩定程度是否造成影響。本文爬梳有關傳統聯盟之形成背景與造成聯盟鬆散程度等文獻,整理出外部威脅和內部分歧是影響聯盟穩固的兩大類別,對中國的夥伴關係影響進行檢視。利用聯合國大會投票所建構之外交政策利益相似程度和進出口貿易額占比,以及排除華為5G在北約的適用和烏俄戰爭的態度進行判斷,其結果顯示大部分中國夥伴關係外交能夠增加中國與本文17個北約成員國間的利益相似程度和進出口貿易往來;但無明顯影響這17國在排除華為5G在北約的適用和烏俄戰爭的態度。最後本文梳理其17個與中國建立夥伴關係之北約成員國對北約的態度,發現這些國家對北約的態度並未轉變,且更加配合北約。本文發現,中國的夥伴關係外交,雖然可以增加與這17個北約成員國之間的共同利益,但卻不會影響到北約聯盟的緊密程度。
    In the 21st century,“partnership diplomacy”has gradually replaced traditional alliances, becoming a popular new diplomatic tool. Since 1993, China has been establishing a network of partnerships centered around itself, including partnerships with over half of the NATO member states. This paper seeks to answer the research question of whether China's adoption of “partnership diplomacy” has impacted the stability of the “NATO traditional alliance system. ” The paper reviews the literature on the background of traditional alliance formation and the factors contributing to alliance looseness, identifying external threats and internal divisions as the two main categories affecting alliance stability. It then examines the impact of China's partnership relations based on the similarity of foreign policy interests constructed from United Nations General Assembly voting records, the proportion of trade volumes, attitudes towards the exclusion of Huawei 5G within NATO, and positions on the Russia-Ukraine war. The results indicate that China's partnership diplomacy generally increases the similarity of interests and trade exchanges between China and 17 NATO member states studied. However, it does not significantly influence these 17 countries’ attitudes towards excluding Huawei 5G within NATO or their stances on the Russia-Ukraine war. Finally, the paper reviews the attitudes of these 17 NATO member states that have established partnerships with China towards NATO and finds that these countries’ attitudes towards NATO have not changed; they are, in fact, more aligned with NATO. The paper concludes that although China’s partnership diplomacy can enhance mutual interests with these 17 NATO member states, it does not affect the cohesiveness of the NATO alliance.
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    駐荷蘭台北代表處,2019/7/2。〈荷蘭內閣不禁止華為提供5G設備〉,《駐荷蘭台北代表處 經濟商務新聞》,<https://www.roc-taiwan.org/nl/post/6962.html>。

    英文部分

    專書
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    Walt, Stephen M., 1990. The Origins of Alliances. New York: Cornell University Press.
    Waltz, Kenneth N., 1979. Theory of International Politics. Mass.: Addison-Wesley Pub. Co.
    期刊論文
    Christensen, Thomas J. & Jack Snyder, 1990/3-5. “Chain Gangs and Passed Bucks: Predicting Alliance Patterns in Multipolarity,” International Organization, Vol. 44, No. 2, pp. 137-168.
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    Goldstein, Avery.,2021/12. “The Diplomatic Face of China’s Grand Strategy: A Rising Power’s Emerging Choice.” The China Quarterly, No. 168 , pp. 835-864.
    Kozłowski, Grzegorz, 2021/5. “Defence Expenditures of Nato Member States in the Times of Covid and the New Us Administration:Selected Observations,” Journal on Baltic Security, Vol.7, Issue 1, pp. 17-26.
    Leeds, Brett Ashley & Burcu Savun, 2007/11. “Terminating Alliances: Why Do States Abrogate Agreements? ,” The Journal of Politics, Vol. 69 , No. 4 , pp. 1118-1132.
    Leeds, Brett Ashley, 2003/9-11. “Alliance Reliability in Times of War: Explaining State Decisions to Violate Treaties,” International Organization, Vol. 57, No. 4, pp. 801-827.
    Leeds, Brett Ashley, Andrew G. Long & Sara McLaughlin Mitchell, 2002/10. “Reevaluating Alliance Reliability Specific Threats, Specific Promises,” The Journal of Conflict Resolution, Vol. 44, No. 5, pp. 686-699.
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    Michael A. Bailey, Anton Strezhnev & Erik Voeten, 2017/2. “Estimating Dynamic State Preferences from United Nations Voting Data,” Journal of Conflict Resolution, Vol. 61, No. 2, pp. 430-456。
    Morrow, James D., 1991/11. “Alliances and Asymmetry: An Alternative to the Capability Aggregation Model of Alliances,” American Journal of Political Science, Vol. 35, No. 4, pp. 904-933.
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    Nien-Chung Chang-Liao, 2023/2. “The limits of strategic partnerships: Implications for China’s role in the Russia-Ukraine war,” Contemporary Security Policy, Vol. 44, NO. 2, pp. 226-247.
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    Russett, Bruce M., 1968/9. “Components of an Operational Theory of International Alliance Formation,” The Journal of Conflict Resolution, Vol. 12, No. 3, pp. 285-301.
    Schweller, Randall L., 1994/6-8. “Bandwagoning for Profit: Bringing the Revisionist State Back In,” International Security, Vol. 19, No. 1, pp.72-107.
    Strüver, Georg, 2017/1. “China's Partnership Diplomacy: International Alignment Based on Interests or Ideology,” The Chinese Journal of International Politics, Vol. 10, Issue 1, pp. 31-65.
    Sweeney, Kevin & Paul Fritz, 2004/5. “Jumping on the Bandwagon: An Interest-Based Explanation for Great Power Alliances,” The Journal of Politics, Vol. 66, No. 2, pp. 428-449.
    Weiss, Tomáš, 2019/5.“Between NATO and a hard place: defence spending debate in Germany and Czechia,” European Security,Vol. 28, NO. 2, pp.193-211.
    Wilkins, Thomas S., 2012/1. “ ‘Alignment’, not ‘alliance’ – the shifting paradigm of international security cooperation: toward a conceptual taxonomy of alignment,” Review of International Studies, Vol. 38, Issue 1, No. 1, pp. 53-76.
    Womack, Brantly, 2014/6. “China's Future in a Multinodal World Order,” Pacific Affairs, Vol. 87, No. 2, pp. 265-284.

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