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| Title: | 我國現行公共債務管理機制之探討
A Study of Public Debt Regulation and Mechanism in Taiwan |
| Authors: | 傅靖芳
Fu, Ching-Fang |
| Contributors: | 陳國樑
傅靖芳
Fu, Ching-Fang |
| Keywords: | 財政紀律
公共債務
特別預算
Fiscal discipline
Public debt
Special budgets |
| Date: | 2024 |
| Issue Date: | 2024-09-04 14:16:15 (UTC+8) |
| Abstract: | 《公共債務法》施行以來，我國未償債務餘額仍持續攀升，另由於《預算法》第83條定義具解釋空間，近年行政機關頻繁提出特別預算做為施政替代財源，再另以特別條例排除計入年度舉債限額，加劇債務累積，引起各界對財政永續性 (fiscal sustainability) 的疑慮，亦使公共債務管理機制之檢討成為重要研究議題。本研究將分兩部份進行探討：首先是財政永續性的檢定，檢視我國財政狀況是否符合跨期預算平衡所具備之統計推論；接續檢討我國公共債務管理機制，從而降低政府透過編列特別預算取得財源之誘因。
根據單根及共整合檢定，我國1974至2022年的收支餘絀非定態，政府收入及政府支出兩者亦無法得出存在長期均衡關係之結論，顯示財政永續性未獲支持；另借鏡歐盟將景氣循環納入債務管控之精神，以1974至2022年的GDP、淨融資及收支餘絀三變數，透過向量誤差修正模型找出淨融資與GDP的長期均衡關係，研究發現，淨融資與GDP兩者呈負向關聯，當經濟成長使GDP增加1元，政府應減少淨融資0.017元，反之亦然。因此，建議政府對於年度舉債限額的計算指標，可加入GDP變動因子作為彈性調整空間，將有助於財政紀律之落實。
Since the “Public Debt Act” took effect, the outstanding public debts continue to climb undauntedly. In addition, due to the loose conditions in Article 83 of the “Budget Act”, the executive arm of the government has been increasingly using special budgets as alternative financial sources to exclude the rising public debts from annual borrowing limit as specified in the “Public Debt Act”. This has aroused concerns about fiscal sustainability and has made the review of the public debt regulation an important research topic. This study is divided into two parts: first, to examine whether the current fiscal situation is consistent with the statistical inferences of intertemporal budget balance. Next, to review the public debt regulation to reduce the incentive of using special budgets as financial sources.
According to unit-root test and co-integration test, the country's net of fiscal revenues and expenditures from 1974 to 2022 is not stationary, and there is no long-term equilibrium relationship between revenues and expenditures, together these results indicate that fiscal sustainability is not supported. Taking lessons from the European Union’s fiscal management mechanism that links economic development with structural deficits, this study estimated the long-term equilibrium relationship between GDP, net debts, and net of fiscal revenues and expenditures. Through a vector error correction model (VECM) with data from 1974 to 2022, we found a negative correlation between net debts and GDP, when GDP increases by $1, the net debts should reduce by $0.017, and vice versa. This finding can be incorporated in the reform of the annual borrowing limit to strengthen fiscal discipline. |
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| Description: | 碩士
國立政治大學
行政管理碩士學程
110921061 |
| Source URI: | http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0110921061 |
| Data Type: | thesis |
| Appears in Collections: | [行政管理碩士學程(MEPA)] 學位論文
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