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Title:	臺灣人民幣存款影響因素之分析 Analysis of Factors Affecting RMB Deposits in Taiwan
Authors:	詹雅惠
Contributors:	洪福聲林朕陞 Hung,Fu-Sheng LIN, Chen-Sheng 詹雅惠
Keywords:	人民幣中美貿易戰利率匯率 RMB China–United States Trade War Exchange Rate Interest Rate
Date:	2024
Issue Date:	2024-09-04 14:01:24 (UTC+8)
Abstract:	中國經濟自改革開放以來，國內生產毛額、人均GDP皆快速成長。臺灣政府開放臺灣人民可以到中國探親後，兩岸逐漸有經貿往來，臺灣對中國之進出口金額快速增長，因此臺灣央行於民國102年1月發布修正之「銀行業辦理外匯業務管理辦法」中規範臺灣地區的人民幣清算業務，並於同年9月開始「人民幣匯款」業務，從此臺灣民眾可直接在臺灣合格之金融機構辦理人民幣相關業務。 102年2月起，臺灣金融機構開始提供人民幣存款服務，在一年的時間中，人民幣存款成為臺灣外幣存款占比第二多之貨幣，由此可知，人民幣存款是金融機構中相當重要之外幣存款。基於人民幣存款的重要性，本文探討影響臺灣人民幣存款餘額月變動率之因素，我們運用人民幣利率、人民幣匯率、臺幣匯率、臺灣到中國人數與使用虛擬變數控制經濟中之重大事件，並使用多元迴歸模型進行分析。實證結果發現人民幣利率對臺灣人民幣存款餘額月變動率有顯著正向關係；人民幣匯率與臺幣匯率對臺灣人民幣存款餘額月變動率有顯著負向關係；虛擬變數部份，人民幣剛出現在臺灣金融市場上時對臺灣人民幣存款餘額月變動率有顯著正向關係，中美貿易戰對臺灣人民幣存款餘額月變動率則有顯著負向關係。 Since the reform and opening of China's economy, China’s gross domestic product and per capita GDP have grown rapidly. After the Taiwan government opened the door for Taiwan people to visit relatives in China, people on both sides began to have economic interactions. Taiwan's import and export to China increased rapidly. Therefore, the Taiwan Central Bank issued the revised "Regulations Governing Foreign Exchange Business of Banking Enterprises" in January 2013 to standardize the RMB clearing business in Taiwan and launched the "RMB remittance" business in September in the same year. Since then, Taiwan people can directly do RMB products at qualified financial institutions in Taiwan. Taiwan’s financial institutions began to provide RMB deposit services in February 2013. In a year, RMB deposits became the second largest foreign currency held by Taiwan people. Therefore, we can know that RMB deposit is important in Taiwan’s financial institutions. So this article mainly discusses the factors that influence the monthly change rate of RMB deposit balance in Taiwan. We use RMB interest rate, RMB exchange rate, Taiwan dollar exchange rate, the number of people go to China from Taiwan, and dummy variables to represent major events. We use regression model analysis shows the RMB interest rate has a significant positive relationship with the monthly change rate of Taiwan's RMB deposit balance. The RMB exchange rate and Taiwan dollar exchange rate have significant negative relationship with the monthly change rate of Taiwan's RMB deposit balance. The RMB has just appeared in Taiwan's financial market, there is a significant positive relationship with the monthly change rate of Taiwan's RMB deposit balance, and China–United States trade war has a significant negative relationship with the monthly change rate of Taiwan's RMB deposit balance.
Reference:	宋芳秀、劉芮睿(2016)，〈人民幣境外存量的估算及其影響因素分析國際貨幣評論〉，國際貨幣評論，48(11)，pp. 108-122。林郁純（2015），〈臺灣外幣定期存款報酬與風險之研究-以美元和澳幣為例〉，逢甲大學金融碩士在職專班碩士論文。唐忠廷（2015），〈人民幣升值與通貨替代〉，東吳大學經濟學系碩士論文。曹添旺、唐忠廷（2016），〈人民幣匯率變動與通貨替代〉，人文及社會科學集刊，28(1)，pp. 1–27。曾致勝（2008），〈台灣美元存款的決定因素 – 重大事件與政策影響〉，國立臺灣大學經濟學系碩士論文。黃裕邦（2021），〈民間外匯存款、央行外匯存底與總體經濟之分析〉，國立臺北大學統計學系碩士論文。魏迎晃（2014），〈台灣美元存款戶選擇第二種外幣存款避險之研究〉，國立中正大學經濟學系碩士論文。 Agenor, P. R. and M. S. Khan (1992), “ Foreign Currency Deposits and the Demand for Money in Developing Countries,” Journal of Development Economics, 50(1), pp.101–118. Fung, B. S. and R. N. McCauley (2001), “ Analysing the Growth of Taiwanese Deposits in Foreign Currency,” BIS Quarterly Review, September, pp. 49–56.
Description:	碩士國立政治大學國際金融碩士學位學程 111ZB1085
Source URI:	http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0111ZB1085
Data Type:	thesis
Appears in Collections:	[Master’s Program in Global Banking and Finance] Theses

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