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    题名: 價格管制、產業環境與創新擴散對廠商競爭動態的影響-以臺灣電信業為例
    The impact of price cap, industrial environment, and innovation diffusion on firm's competition dynamics：The case study of Taiwan's telecommunications industry
    作者: 李淑華
    贡献者: 吳豐祥
    許牧彥
    李淑華
    关键词: Bass模型
    價格管制
    創新擴散
    競爭與合作
    Lotka-Volterra 模型
    Bass-Lotka-Volterra模型
    競爭動態
    Bass model,
    price regulation
    innovation diffusion
    competition and cooperation
    Lotka-Volterra model
    Bass-Lotra Model
    competition dynamics
    日期: 2024
    上传时间: 2024-09-04 13:59:03 (UTC+8)
    摘要: 本研究主要探討價格管制、電信產業環境與創新擴散對於廠商競爭動態的影響，並比較Bass-Lotka-Volterra模型(簡稱BLV)與Lotka-Volterra模型 (簡稱LV)在評估和預測廠商競爭動態方面的效果。以往研究僅透過銷售額（價格與數量）來探討競爭與合作之間的關係，未同時考量價格影響、創新擴散及技術世代交替的效果。因此，本研究將價格分開處理，並假設市場規模是不因價格而變動的常數，這與臺灣電信產業市場的實況相符。然後，本研究以電信產業為例，援引創新擴散理論中的Bass模型來修正LV模型（純數量的競爭合作模型），並將技術世代的更新視為改變電信廠商競爭與合作格局的機會點，將創新擴散及世代交替的影響分離出來，進一步探討廠商競爭與合作的動態。過往研究中，Smítalová & Šujan（1991）以Lotka-Volterra模型中的交互影響係數來判斷競合關係，卻未能考慮模型係數求解過程中，係數值應該基於實際市場狀況而受到限制。本研究基於此動機對模型係數之可求解之數值範圍進行控制，使得研究結果在實證中更具意義和解釋力。這一調整使模型不僅能夠更準確地描述產業競爭中的競合關係，還可以更全面地反映各競爭者之間的複雜互動。
    研究顯示價格變動對電信業者市佔率影響的有限性，以4G資費的降價行為為例，即使電信業者推出促銷方案，市場市佔率依然保持穩定，顯示出用戶在簽訂長期契約後，價格因素對其決策的影響較小。這一現象表明，價格在短期內對用戶數量的變化影響不大，在市場規模維持穩定情況下，BLV模型能夠更準確地預測市場競爭動態。本研究進一步將創新擴散理論與技術世代的更新納入考量，提出修正的BLV模型來提升預測準確性。臺灣電信產業市場在規模穩定的前提下，又兼具2G、3G、4G和5G之間技術世代交替過程中的市佔變化，是以援引4G為範例來研究2G、3G轉入至4G以及4G轉出至5G對4G市佔之影響。結果顯示，在考慮技術世代交替的情況後，修正的BLV模型在4G成長期的預測績效優於傳統LV模型。此外，當進一步對修正的BLV模型係數之可求解範圍進行控制時，不但整體模型更具理論解釋力，其預測績效亦較傳統LV模型更為理想。本研究的貢獻即在於提供Lotka-Volterra模型與Logistic創新擴散模型之間的理論連結，並將其應用於多家廠商間的競爭樣態分析。尤其是首次將技術世代轉換率納入考量，推導出更廣泛適用的BLV模型。
    本研究整合創新擴散與世代交替的競合動態模型可以更準確地衡量廠商的競爭與合作關係。這個研究成果對於企業管理者在擬定競合策略時或政府主管機構在管制產業的競爭合作動態上都有極高的應用價值。例如：國家通訊委員會對市場主導者的價格管制、公平交易委員會對廠商聯合壟斷行為的裁量，都可用本研究所揭示的方法來衡量廠商的競爭與合作關係。
    This study explores the impact of price regulation, the telecom industry environment, and innovation diffusion on the competitive dynamics of firms. It also compares the effectiveness of the Bass-Lotka-Volterra (BLV) model and the Lotka-Volterra (LV) model in evaluating and predicting these dynamics. The research finds that studies in the past have only examined the relationship between competition and cooperation through sales volume (price and quantity), without considering the effects of price, innovation diffusion, and generation alternation of technology. Therefore, this study isolates the price effect and assumes that market size is a constant unaffected by price, which aligns with Taiwan's telecom industry market status. Using Taiwan telecom indurstry as a case study, this study then applies the Bass model from innovation diffusion theory to refine the LV model (a competition-cooperation model purely based on quantity). It treats technological generation shift as opportunities that alter the competitive and cooperative dynamics among telecom firms, separating the effects of innovation diffusion and generational transitions. Furthermore, previous research by Smítalová & Šujan (1991) was limited in using only the interaction coefficient in the Lotka-Volterra model to assess competitive relationships, but fails to consider that the numerical values of the model coefficients shall be constrained by market status. This study controls the numerical value space of model coefficients, making the numerical results of the model coefficients to be meaningful and interpretable in acutual applications. This adjustment allows the model not only to more accurately describe the competitive relationships within the industry but also to more comprehensively reflect the complex interactions among competitors.
    The study reveals the impact of price fluctuations on the market share of telecom operators is limited. Using 4G tariff reductions as an example, it shows that irrespective of promotional offers from telecom operators, the market share remained stable. This indicates that once suscribing long-term contracts, price becomes a less significant factor in users’ decision-making. This phenomenon suggests that price changes have limited effect on the total number of subscribption in the short term. Thus, when the market size remains stable, the BLV model serves as a more accurate tool for predicting market competition dynamics. The study further incorporates innovation diffusion theory and technological generational shifts into the analysis, proposing a modified BLV model, to enhance predictive accuracy. Since the market size of Taiwan telecom industry is stable and provides market share transitional status during technological generation shift between 2G, 3G, 4G, and 5G, 4G market share is used as a case study for studying the impact on 4G market share when transitioning from 2G and 3G, and transitioning to 5G. The results indicate that, under consideration of technological generation shift, the modified BLV model outperforms the traditional LV model in predicting market dynamics during the 4G growth period. When further constraining the numerical value space of the model coefficients of the modificed BLV model, it not only demonstrates superior predictive performance but also provides better theoretically interpretable parameters than the LV model and traditional BLV model. The academic contribution of this study thus lies in providing the theoretical connection between the Lotka-Volterra model and the Logistic innovation diffusion model, applying it to the analysis of competitive patterns among multiple firms. Notably, this research is the first to incorporate technological generation transition rates, resulting in the derivation of the more broadly applicable BLVc model.

    As a result, the proposed model in this study, which integrates innovation diffusion and technology generational shifts, can more accurately assess the competitive and cooperative relationships among firms. These findings provide high practical value for corporate managers in formulating competitive and cooperative strategies and for government regulatory bodies in managing industry competition and cooperation dynamics. For example, the National Communications Commission (NCC)'s price regulation for market leaders and the Fair-Trade Commission's decisions on joint monopolistic behavior by firms can use the methods revealed in this study to measure the competitive and cooperative relationships among firms.
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    國立政治大學
    科技管理與智慧財產研究所
    104364504
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