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| Title: | 氣候變遷與死亡率的關係
The Impact of Climate Change on Mortality Rates |
| Authors: | 簡廷儒
Chien, Ting-Ju |
| Contributors: | 余清祥
Yu, Cing-Siang
簡廷儒
Chien, Ting-Ju |
| Keywords: | 極端氣候
危險因子
氣候分析
標準死亡比
地區差異
Extreme climate
Risk factors
Climate analysis
Standardize mortality ratio
Regional difference |
| Date: | 2023 |
| Issue Date: | 2024-09-04 13:39:48 (UTC+8) |
| Abstract: | 近年極端氣候頻頻出現在世界各地，超出歷史平均的高低溫、短時間急遽降雨、乾旱等天候現象影響我們生活品質及人身安全，進而導致土地沙漠化及鹽化面積更加擴大，適合居住及農耕畜牧的土地愈見縮小。氣候異常影響層面非常廣泛，世界衛生組織認為氣候變遷是21世紀人類面臨的最大威脅，造成疾病肆虐、糧食短缺、空氣及水污染，提高了交通運輸及物流的成本，阻礙人類的經濟活動及溝通交流。氣候與人類健康的關係多半導因於人口脆弱性，弱勢群體對風險承擔能力相對不足，尤其是經濟弱勢、老年人口等，極端氣候對這些族群的影響特別明顯。
本文以探討臺灣氣候變遷為目標，評估極端氣候對我國居民的健康影響，研究結合各鄉鎮市氣象觀測站資料、人口資料，以鄉鎮市為單位探討氣候與死亡率的相關性。研究發現臺灣氣溫有逐漸上升的趨勢，而且溫度波動與極端值出現的次數越來越頻繁，符合溫室效應的暖化定義。此外，分析發現臺灣死亡率在一年中有明顯的週期變化，每年三月份的標準死亡比最高；標準死亡比與地區有顯著相關，各地區受到的影響強度也取決於氣候因子。例如：北部及山區死亡率容易受到低溫的影響，中西部平原死亡率則因為晝夜溫差而有較大波動。
In recent years, extreme weather has become more common across the world, with increasing frequency of abnormal phenomena, such as extreme temperature, flash heavy rain and droughts. Climate anomaly not only threat our quality of life and safety but also reduce the areas suitable for habitation and cultivation. World Health Organization identifies climate change as the most threatening disaster to humanity in the 21st century, causing raging diseases, food shortages, and air and water pollution. It increases the cost of transportation and logistics and hinders human economic activities. Vulnerable groups have relatively poor ability to bear climate risks, especially the socially disadvantaged and elderly populations.
The study aims to explore climate change in Taiwan and evaluate how the extreme weather affects the health of residents. The research combines weather and mortality data from Taiwan government in the county and township level. We found that the mean and variance of temperature in Taiwan are increasing, consistent with the global warming effects. Furthermore, we also found that the monthly mortality rate meets the condition of seasonality, reaching a peak in March. The mortality rate is highly correlated with regional climate factors, and the degree of impact varies in different regions. For example, the mortality rate in northern and mountain regions is more sensitive to low temperatures, while the mortality rate in the central and western plains fluctuates greatly due to the temperature difference between day and night. |
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Trenberth, K. E. (2011). Changes in precipitation with climate change. Climate Research, 47(123-138). |
| Description: | 碩士
國立政治大學
風險管理與保險學系
110358027 |
| Source URI: | http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0110358027 |
| Data Type: | thesis |
| Appears in Collections: | [風險管理與保險學系] 學位論文
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