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| Title: | 中央與地方選舉對臺灣各縣市 財政表現之影響
The Effect of Central and Local Elections on the Fiscal Performance of Local Governments in Taiwan |
| Authors: | 羅沛妤
Lo, Pei-Yu |
| Contributors: | 黃智聰
Huang, Jr-Tsung
羅沛妤
Lo, Pei-Yu |
| Keywords: | 地方政府財政表現
綜合財務狀況分數
選舉年
動態空間自我迴歸模型
廣義動差法
Local Government Fiscal Performance
Comprehensive Fiscal Condition Scores
Election Year
Dynamic Spatial Autoregressive Models
Generalized Method of Moments |
| Date: | 2024 |
| Issue Date: | 2024-08-05 14:44:35 (UTC+8) |
| Abstract: | 地方政府的財政表現在政府的運作中具有重要的影響，它是提供教育、醫療、交通等公共服務的主要資金來源，直接影響了當地居民的生活品質與社會福利。因此，地方政府如何維持良好的財政表現是一項重要的課題。
選舉作為民主社會中不可或缺的一部分，象徵著公民對政治運作的參與和選擇權利。在臺灣，選舉活動不僅僅是政治體制的核心特徵，更是社會發展和政治穩定的重要組成部分。然而，選舉所帶來的影響不僅限於政治範疇，也會對於經濟和地方政府財政表現產生影響。因此，本研究之目的即在探討選舉年對地方政府財政表現的影響。
本研究以臺灣二十個縣市，於2011年至2022年期間之追蹤資料作為樣本，探討地方、中央選舉年對於地方政府財政表現之影響，以及地方政府財政表現的空間相關性與動態效果。研究中使用計算綜合財務狀況分數此指標做為衡量地方政府財政表現的方法。除此之外，使用廣義動差法（Generalized Moment of Method，簡稱GMM）於動態空間自我迴歸模型（Dynamic spatial autoregressive，簡稱DSAR）中，估計地方、中央選舉年等因素對於地方政府財政表現之影響。
實證研究結果顯示，地方政府財政表現的空間相關性和動態效果皆有正向影響，強調良好的前期財政表現對於地方政府當期的財政表現的重要性；地方選舉年、失業率對於地方政府綜合財政狀況分數存在負向影響；中央選舉年對於地方政府綜合財政狀況分數則有正向影響。
The fiscal performance of local governments has a significant impact on the functioning of government operations. It serves as the primary source of funding for public services such as education, healthcare, and transportation, directly affecting the quality of life and social welfare of local residents. Therefore, how local governments maintain good fiscal performance is an important issue.
Elections, as an indispensable part of democratic societies, symbolize citizens' participation in political processes and their right to choose. In Taiwan, electoral activities are not only core features of the political system but also integral components of social development and political stability. However, the impact of elections extends beyond the political realm and affects economic and local government fiscal conditions. Therefore, this study aims to explore the effect of election years on local government fiscal performance.
Using panel data from twenty cities in Taiwan, tracked from 2011 to 2022, this study examines the effects of local and central election years on local government fiscal performance, as well as the spatial correlation and dynamic effects of local government fiscal performance. The study employs the calculation of a comprehensive financial condition score as an indicator of local government fiscal performance. Additionally, the study utilizes the Generalized Method of Moments（GMM）in Dynamic Spatial Autoregressive Models（DSAR）to estimate the effects of factors such as local and central election years on local government fiscal performance.
The empirical results indicate positive spatial correlation and dynamic effects on local government fiscal performance, underscoring the significance of strong prior fiscal performance for current local government fiscal performance. Local election years and unemployment rates negatively impact the comprehensive fiscal condition scores of local governments, while central election years positively influence these scores. |
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| Description: | 碩士
國立政治大學
財政學系
111255009 |
| Source URI: | http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0111255009 |
| Data Type: | thesis |
| Appears in Collections: | [財政學系] 學位論文
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